A new race at a new track presents a new set of NASCAR DFS challenges in the Go Bowling 235 at the Daytona Road Course. Therefore, let’s jump into this week’s top NASCAR DFS picks for SuperDraft.
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SuperDraft NASCAR DFS Strategy for DRC
This week, it’s optimal to just pretend like lap bonuses don’t exist on SuperDraft. We already sort of do this with laps completed. Honestly, are you really trying to project just how many laps each driver is going to finish? We just give everyone the same laps completed numbers and move on. However, what I’m talking about is the 0.2 laps-led bonus. With just 65 laps, the most bonus points any driver could get would be 13 and that would include leading the entire race.
While Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Junior or Chase Elliott could do just that, it won’t matter in the end. The drivers most likely to lead have the lowest multipliers. Case in point, let’s just give Harvick every lap led, along with the win. Those 13 laps-led points only add an additional 20 points to his score as a champion selection with a grand total of 89.25 SD points. There are a lot of drivers who can outscore that number just with place differential and a forward finish.
Thus, for Sunday’s race, we just need to disregard lap leaders at all. Focus on place differential and finishing position when assembling your SuperDraft lineups.
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Top NASCAR DFS Champion Selections
Alex Bowman, 27th (2.2x champion multiplier) – The chalk play for champion will probably be Ryan Blaney and for good reason. He is the driver starting the furthest back with the highest likelihood to win (+800). However, SuperDraft will always be a discussion of value when considering multipliers, and Blaney only gives you 1.8x as a champion. Thus, instead of utilizing Blaney as a champion, who needs a 7th-place finish, or better, to crack 100+ SD points, let’s play Bowman.
If nothing else, Bowman has been a consistent driver in the 88 at road courses with no finish worse than 14th. If he at least does that, we’re talking 108+ fantasy points. If he finishes in the top-5 like he’s done in back-to-back years at the Roval, then he easily outscored the field with 120+ champion points.
Chris Buescher, 21st (2.55x champion multiplier) – At Buescher’s time with JTG-Daugherty, Buescher must have soaked in everything AJ Allmendinger had to teach. Although Buescher has no finish better than 11th to his name since 2017 at road courses, it’s the fact that he has no finish worse than 20th, with every finish seeing him on the lead lap.
Buescher should easily move up and pick off spots, but just how far forward can we project him? My model gave him a modest 16th-place finish. When combined with that large multiplier, Buescher ends up with 94 points as a champion play. In fact, it’s that large multiplier that gives Buescher an amazing floor with a nice ceiling.
Top NASCAR DFS Flex Selections
Michael McDowell, 30th (1.6x flex multiplier) – Going down the starting grid, this is where your player pool should end. With so much of the Go Bowling 235 happening on the actual track, it doesn’t make sense to have exposure to these bottom-end guys. Regardless, McDowell has place differential and is a good road course driver in his own right when you weigh his equipment against others with better cars. My model gave McDowell an 18th-place finish, just a single spot short of his average finish at road courses since 2017.
Daniel Suarez, 31st (1.7x flex multiplier) – Starting 31st may scare people off of Suarez, but I see a path to fantasy success. Everyone is on the same playing field, the first lap Kevin Harvick turns will also be the first lap that Erik Jones turns on the road course. It feels inevitable for this race to see cautions and some cautions may take out five, six, or even seven cars at a time. Thus, success on Sunday could boil down to nothing but attrition. If that’s the case, who better to roster than Suarez?
A glance at Suarez’s history on road courses shows he has the ability to hang with 4th- and 3rd-place finishes at Watkins Glen. Thus, I believe he can pick up spots on the chicanes, the “whale tail” as I call it, and then navigate through wrecks and be around 15th to 20th by the end of the day.
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