NBA DFS Optimizer Lineup Picks Today for DraftKings & FanDuel

Short slate Saturday brings just five games to the table for NBA DFS action. Only one of the five games reaches above a 220-point total, but there are relatively close point spreads and several premium teams on the slate. With several key players absent from their team’s lineups already, we know there are strong value plays in the mix. Each of these unlocks critical plays for their raw scoring potential that will help a lineup reach the top of standings, but getting to unique constructions on a slate with fewer choices becomes a challenge. Finding the right blend of value-based plays and sheer upside potential, while considering leverage, is the clear path to NBA DFS victory.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With nine games on the slate, this will be a broad look at the best overall plays of the night. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Check out Alex Hunter’s Boom/Bust Tool article, where he breaks down some of the top boom and bust candidates from Awesemo’s expert projections. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

JaVale McGee: DraftKings — $3,700 — C | FanDuel — $4,100 — C

With news breaking in the afternoon that starting Suns center Deandre Ayton will be out on Saturday, backup big man JaVale McGee vaults to the top of the board on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. McGee sees just 15.4 minutes per night under normal circumstances, but he is a strong value play when his run gets extended, considering his 1.17 fantasy point per minute rate for the season. McGee has gotten to that point with 24.3% usage and a 69.1% true shooting percentage when he is on the floor this season, along with a 19.7% rebounding rate. The backup center has significant upside, in just 24 minutes he can put up a slate-bending score. It is worth noting that fellow frontcourt reserve Frank Kaminsky is also an inexpensive upside play from the Suns this evening. Kaminsky can be rostered at the power forward spot on both sites, allowing NBA DFS gamers to roster them in lineups together if so desired.

McGee is the leading play on the DraftKings slate. The center comes in with a 45.6% optimal lineup appearance rate that outpaces the next-highest competitor by 10 percentage points. With news just breaking, McGee’s ownership projection has already leaped to nearly 25% on the slate, but that still leaves a healthy amount of leverage in the run-up to lock. Even if he becomes far more popular, the price and the points per minute make McGee a strong value in the middle. He has a 27.6-point median projection and a slate-leading 58.3% boom score probability that cannot be ignored when making quality lineups. McGee should be rostered well beyond the field for his low $3,700 price and 20.8 leverage score, though the latter mark will surely shrink prior to lock.

On the FanDuel slate, McGee becomes slightly less valuable at a $4,100 price tag. He is still one of the leading plays available, coming in with a 23.7% optimal lineup rate that ranks ninth among players at all positions and fourth among eligible centers. With all three of the centers above him also carrying power forward eligibility on the site, McGee can be rotated through as needed, particularly as a pivot from players who are coming in at negative leverage on the small slate. McGee has a 27.3-point median projection and a 44.4% boom score probability that leads all players on the FanDuel slate. He is projected for just 13.7% ownership, leaving him as one of the strongest available leverage plays at a 10.0. That mark, and the 26.4 carried by Kaminsky, will probably crash toward Earth as we get nearer to lock, but there will be strong upside available in the play regardless. With Ayton out, McGee is one of the top options in the industry.

Al Horford: DraftKings — $7,600 — PF/C | FanDuel — $7,600 — PF/C

The Celtics are set to be without star Jaylen Brown on Saturday, which typically thrusts Jayson Tatum into a more prominent role while having a trickle-down effect across the rest of the team. This should prove a benefit to several of the mid-range options in the team’s frontcourt, including both Al Horford and Robert Williams. Both players rate out well on the Boom/Bust Tool for tonight, but it is Horford who slightly outpaces his younger teammate on both sites. The center is averaging 30 minutes a night for the Celtics and he has had a dominant start to the season. In seven games, Horford has posted a 1.37 fantasy point per minute rate on 54.7% true shooting with an 18.5% assist rate and a 15.7% rebounding percentage. By comparison, Williams has provided just 0.98 fantasy points per minute with a 70.3% true shooting percentage but just a 6.5% assist percentage and 12.8% rebounding share.

On the DraftKings slate, Horford is the fourth-highest ranked player available. He appears in the optimal lineup in 32.1% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, the third-highest rate among eligible centers and second among power forwards. The positional flexibility adds to the upside that Horford brings to the table for unique lineup creation potential, he is a valuable commodity in the midrange on this slate but the public is not getting to him frequently enough with just a 21.3% ownership projection. Horford’s 10.8 leverage score is one of the top marks on the board, exceeding the field’s projected shares should be a sound decision on this slate.

On the blue site, Horford lands as the most frequently optimal play at any position, appearing in 41.5% of winning lineups in simulations. The Boston big man has a 41.2-point projection and a 38.6% boom score probability that ranks third on the slate. He is carrying public popularity on this site, but not enough to outpace his quality. Horford is projected for 34.6% ownership but has a 6.9 leverage score that ranks ninth overall on the board. His eligibility at power forward and center are helpful in rotating him through combinations with McGee and other center/power forward options on the FanDuel slate tonight, he should be a fundamental building block in the creation of unique highly-projected lineups.

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Luka Doncic: DraftKings — $10,700 — PG/SF | FanDuel — $10,200 — PG/SG

Despite some early season disappointments, the price tag has not fallen very far on Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic. Despite the slump and the hefty price tag, Doncic remains one of the best players available on either site. The supremely talented guard is still averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute, the 10th-highest mark on the slate. That represents a major downturn from his 1.47 per-minute rate from last season, though he has actually seen an uptick from 33.9% usage to 34.5% and he is averaging 34.5 minutes per game. Most of the fault can be found in a true shooting percentage that sits at just 49.9% so far this season. Doncic has a massive 41.9% assist percentage and an 11.1% rebounding rate, he has been burdened by the happenstance of missed shots, if this knocked his price down by even a couple hundred on one’s site of choice, it makes him a worthy investment on this slate.

Doncic ranks fifth overall on FanDuel, coming in with a 32.2% optimal lineup rate that is tops among point guards and second among shooting guards to only the currently questionable Furkan Korkmaz. Doncic has multi-position eligibility between both guard spots on the site, giving him added value in the flexibility to create different lineup combinations. He is carrying a 47.2-point median projection and a 19.9% boom score probability. The latter mark ranks 12th among all positions but is easily the leader among players above a $9,000 price tag on the site. Getting to added shares of Doncic makes sense, he will be owned at around a 25% clip by the public but that leaves a 6.1 leverage score that is appealing and playable.

For a higher price but with flexibility to five lineup positions on the DraftKings slate, Doncic comes in as one of the top plays in any salary tier. He ranks fifth among all players with a 26.6% optimal lineup rate but he will be carrying positive leverage at a 2.6 score. Doncic has a 50.5-point median DraftKings projection and a 29.9% boom score probability that ranks seventh at any position and second among eligible small forwards. With less than 25% of the field projected to be playing him, Doncic is a prime go-to play on the DraftKings NBA DFS slate tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.