Thursday evening’s slate of NBA DFS is a seven-game affair that opens in style with a 232-point game total matchup between the Bulls and Hawks that tips at 7 pm in the East. That game alone offers several tantalizing options for NBA DFS point-scoring upside as well as a few interesting pieces from the value and mid-range tiers. The total is not the top mark on the board this evening, however, that honor goes to the Kings vs Spurs game that rockets to 241 points on the board in Vegas. That game is one of two contests that tip at 8:30, an hour after three other games begin. That block includes a pair of games in the low 220s and a 218-point total between the Pistons and Raptors that is unexciting but should present several slate-relevant plays from a number of fair to low price points. The 220-point totals in the games between the Warriors and Mavericks and the two Los Angeles teams can both be targeted for the available star power in those matchups, though superstar LeBron James is once again technically questionable to play in the mid-afternoon. With the night’s primary stars landing at the guard and forward positions, the center spot is lacking for expensive must-play options, while a number of the premium players can be rotated through the remaining positions based on the wide-ranging flexibility available. The slate’s main logjam comes at the point guard position on FanDuel, where decisions will have to be made in every lineup. At each other position on both sites, an abundance of combinations exists for virtually every desirable player on the board tonight.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Clint Capela: DK $5,900 — C | FD $6,4100 — C
With a general lack of star power at the center spot tonight, it makes sense to consider utilizing value and mid-range options at the position, while paying up to top-tier players in other lineup spots. A few of the top mid-range options in the frontcourt are floating to the top of the board on both sites because of this structure, including Atlanta Hawks big man Clint Capela. The center checks in at an easy price point on both sides of the NBA DFS industry this evening. Capela has been a 1.17 fantasy points per minute producer across the average situation so far this season, and he will continue to be more of a frontcourt focal point in the absence of teammate John Collins, though that situation has not translated into an uptick in fantasy point production. Capela has a productive 58.1% true shooting percentage and a 20.9% rebounding rate. He adds a bit of fantasy scoring upside through his defense, accruing 2.7 stocks per-36 as well. Capela is pulling in slate-leading probability marks, and the public is behind the curve, making him an ideal play in all NBA DFS formats this evening.
On the FanDuel slate Capela’s 23.6% optimal lineup appearance rate ranks him eighth among players at any position and second among eligible centers, coming in behind only Boston big man Al Horford, who has a 29% optimal lineup rate and eligibility at the power forward spot in addition to his center role. The pair of mid-range values should be rostered in the same lineup frequently on the blue site, as they both come with positive leverage on the slate as well. Capela is projected for 20.7% public ownership, while Horford comes in with a 25% popularity forecast. Those NBA projections leave Horford as the fifth-highest leverage score with a 4.0 and Capela close behind in 12th with a 2.9. There are a fair number of quality options with positive leverage who can be considered for additional shares, but both Trae Young and Fred VanVleet top the list due to their currently questionable injury status, which could also be said about LeBron James. Among players certain to take the floor, the list is typically restricted to names including Andre Drummond, Cory Joseph, Jordan Poole and similar mid- to low-tier values. The two big men stand out as quality starters who can accrue fantasy points in a hurry on the right night, and they are under-owned for their probability, making them more appealing than several of these leverage options who are less frequently optimal. Capela stands out for his boom score probability, the 33.77% chance that Awesemo forecasts for him to hit a ceiling score is an excellent target on the board, but Capela is once again surpassed by Horford, who has a 37.68% mark. Both options look good going into the FanDuel slate, if forced to decide between the two, Capela’s lower raw ownership total may be the best tiebreaker, they are evenly matched on many counts. When building only one lineup, it would likely be the optimal approach to include both Horford and Clint Capela for FanDuel NBA DFS contests tonight.
The situation is very similar on the DraftKings slate, but with just a $5,900 price tag at the center position, it is Capela who vaults ahead by optimal lineup appearance rate. He lands in the optimal lineup in 26.7% of Awesemo’s simulated slates for the site. The next player on the list is Horford, who has a $6,100 price tag and eligibility at power forward and center on the site, creating the same excellent potential pairing as was available across town. On DraftKings, both options still carry positive leverage, Capela is at a 4.6 leverage score, while Horford passes him en route to a 5.9, both marks sit in the top-5 if we assume VanVleet is out once again. The two centers are at the top of the boom score probability board as well, Capela is again the slate-leader on DraftKings with a 40.13% probability of hitting his required ceiling score, while Horford slips into third at 36.93%. Horford’s star teammate, Jayson Tatum, looks like an excellent upside play as well, slotting in between the big men with a 37.73% boom score mark and a 52.1-point median NBA projection. Unlike the two pivots, Tatum will be negatively leveraged, but his raw scoring and upside potential are worth including frequently, and his popularity can be partially offset by rostering him with Horford and Capela’s leverage. Horford is projected to be in only 18.4% of public lineups, while Capela is only slightly more popular at 22.1%, neither score properly paces the probability projections, making both players go-to options from the mid-range for DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.
Capella was one of the players propping in the NBA optimizer when running the projections today. Check out all of our free NBA optimizer picks today from our DraftKings NBA Cheat Sheet and FanDuel NBA Cheat Sheet.
Dejounte Murray: DK $10,600 — PG | FD $9,600 — PG/SG
After spending the first part of the season regularly covering the ascent of Spurs guard Dejounte Murray to star status, he has been a visitor to this space with less frequency in recent weeks. Murray has been priced up to the point of efficiency on most NBA DFS slates, but he has remained an excellent contributor in his new tier, chugging along at 1.41 fantasy points per minute across all situations. Murray has been at a 1.41 rate over the team’s three most recent games, providing a steady hand for a shaky squad. He has a 52.2% true shooting percentage with a 38.8% assist rate and an 11.3% rebounding percentage, all excellent marks that help him tally fantasy points with relative ease. Murray adds 2.4 stocks (2.1 steals) per-36 minutes to pad his fantasy totals as well. He will be a popular option today, but he is one of the more reliable sources of fantasy scoring and he has clear upside to a slate-relevant ceiling score on any night. By fantasy points per minute for the season, Murray sits third overall on the slate, only LeBron James’ 1.42 rate and the slate-leading mark established by Luka Doncic at 1.47 land ahead of Murray in the category. Those three players are the only options who produce more than Ja Morant at 1.38 per minute, and the slate begins to trail off rapidly, with Stephen Curry sitting in eighth at just 1.26. Murray is clearly on the top-end of even the tier of star players on this slate.
With a clear misprice, Murray is one of the most appealing options on the blue site tonight. FanDuel has the star player listed at just $9,600 this evening, leaving him plenty of room to smash his way to the required boom score mark. Murray is carrying a 52.51-point median projection, the third highest on the slate behind only Doncic and James, each of whom sit less than 1.5 fantasy points above the Spurs guard. Murray can be rostered in combination with either of the more expensive stars above him, or a broad combination of players below them. Only Doncic, James and Murray have median NBA projections above 50 FanDuel points this evening. Murray’s quality is reflected in his boom score probability, a slate-leading 47.46% that defies his 39.8% ownership mark. The public is getting to Murray, but not aggressively enough based on his current probability metrics. The guard lands in the optimal lineup in 41.8% of simulated slates, and his potential to hit a ceiling score could not be clearer. Murray is an excellent target for additional lineup shares even at his current popularity projections, at an incorrect price he is very likely to be a key to accessing the top of NBA DFS standings on FanDuel tonight.
DraftKings did not forget about the quality with which Murray has been playing this season; the site has him at a much more appropriate $10,600 against their lower salary cap. Murray also drops his shooting guard eligibility when crossing to this side of town, further limiting his overall probability marks. Still, he comes in with a 19.3% optimal lineup appearance rate that lands fourth overall behind Capela and the pair of premium Celtics, and one spot ahead of former backcourt mate Derrick White, who is expected to see starter’s minutes in the absence of Boston teammate Jaylen Brown. With Brown out, all of the Celtics that have been mentioned are benefitting from an uptick in expected playing time or production, or in White’s case both. Murray outpaces his former teammate by optimal lineup rate, but White will be about half as popular for a $6,300 price tag, leaving him as a sound target for leverage with a 5.9 compared to Murray’s -1.4. Regardless, Murray has both raw median projection relevance at a 54.1 DraftKings points mark and an obvious path to a ceiling score with his 35.19% boom score probability. The median projection outscores White’s mark by more than 20 DraftKings points, while the boom score rate is nearly 10 percentage points higher. Murray is a terrific pay-up option, even with his fairly firm 20.7% public ownership projection.
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Zach LaVine: DK $8,000 — SG | FD $7,700 — SG
The early game on the slate offers a potential bonanza of fantasy point scoring options at the second-highest available total of the night. With a 232-point mark on the board in Vegas, this game has the chance to turn into a shootout, although that seems likely to be dictated by the availability of Atlanta star Trae Young, who remains questionable to take the court. One of the options who, barring a surprise, will definitely be on the court is Chicago’s Zach LaVine, who appears underpriced for his talents on both sides of the industry this evening. LaVine has spent most of the 2022 calendar year dealing with knee pain and bouncing in and out of the lineup. The lingering injury is clearly having an impact on the player’s production, LaVine averaged 1.17 fantasy points per minute on 30.2% usage last season, but he has slipped to 1.07 on 28.6% usage across all situations with the new configuration of the Bulls lineup, an expected decline as the team got better around him. The recent decline is more notable in his 0.95 per-minute mark in 35.7 minutes a night over the team’s three most recent games and his 1.02 per-minute mark since the start of January. Both sites have responded by lowering LaVine’s salary, with the player sitting on a value ledge that could prove beneficial this evening if he happens to return to form for a night. LaVine has a 60.5% true shooting percentage and a 20.6% assist rate. He needs to get scoring going to truly contribute, but at what amounts to a mid-range price, there is strong potential for fantasy scoring upside.
On the DraftKings slate LaVine is the seventh-most frequently optimal player at any position. He is an $8,000 option on the slate and he lands in the optimal lineup in 17.3% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, a rate that perfectly paces his projected public popularity. The Bulls star has a crisp 40.4-point median projection on the DraftKings slate, the 14th-highest projection for the 18th-highest price on the board. Interestingly, LaVine’s median projection is the highest available mark at shooting guard on the site as well, a half-dozen of the options above him on the board are point guard plays on the slate, but the site’s additional positioning options make it relatively easy to rotate them through combinations. With differentiated positioning, it seems likely that LaVine will have significant use in his role providing a strong median score and potential for a ceiling mark for the price. By boom score probability, LaVine ranks 13th overall with a 25.98% rate of hitting his required upside score. He has a chance to deliver slate-changing value as the second-highest ranked shooting guard in the category. The other positional option in both cases is, again, Derrick White, who has a 26.13% boom score mark and a 17.8% optimal lineup rate with a 33.2-point median projection. White can be rostered at either guard position, giving him helpful flexibility around LaVine and all of the extremely strong options at point guard. Getting to additional shares of LaVine seems like a strong approach given his clear value as the best option at his position. He grades out well by comparison with the top options across the entire slate and he is too cheap while coming in at simply efficient ownership, this is a quality target for NBA DFS lineups.
On FanDuel LaVine ranks 14th overall with a 17.8% optimal lineup appearance rate. He has eligibility at only the shooting guard position, but he is noticeably underpriced at just $7,700. That pricing has LaVine hitting his boom score mark in 23.05% of simulations, and he has a 38.03-point median projection on the blue site tonight. By boom score probability, LaVine ranks 17th, immediately behind Trae Young, while Murray and White are near the top of the overall board as other relevant positional options, as detailed above. Among eligible shooting guards, LaVine ranks fifth behind Murray, Miami star Jimmy Butler, Doncic, and Celtics guard Marcus Smart, yet another Boston player benefitting from the absence of Jaylen Brown. LaVine’s median projection sits at 38.03, behind the three main stars, but well ahead of Smart, and he will be owned at about half the rate of anyone ahead of him. LaVine’s ownership projection is at just 14.9%, while Smart is in 32.7% of the field’s lineups for $6,100 and Doncic is the least popular of the four at 26.4%. Getting to additional shares of LaVine and his 2.9 leverage score with these probability and raw scoring marks seems like a strong play with his raw ownership projection as low as it is, LaVine has the potential to win someone a FanDuel tournament tonight.
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