On tap for Monday night is a seven-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Monday, Nov. 14.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
Starting at the top for this seven-game slate, Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to be one of the most popular studs of the night according to Stokastic’s projections but is worth building around regardless of his projected ownership. After sitting out back-to-back games with a knee issue, the two-time MVP is probable for tonight. However, the Bucks will remain without Jrue Holiday (ankle) and Khris Middleton (wrist), leaving Antetokounmpo in a godly role. In the 552 minutes the forward has played with Holiday and Middleton off the court over the last two seasons, Antetokounmpo’s usage has risen 2.9 percentage points to 39.2% and his assist percentage has skyrocketed 19.1 percentage points to 50.4%, which translates into a whopping 1.82 DraftKings PPM. On top of the expanded role, the superstar will be on his home floor facing a Hawks’ club that ranks sixth in pace. Antetokounmpo has notably supplied 9.4 more DraftKings PPG at home than when on the road this season and this contest’s total is the third-highest on the slate (225 points). Furthermore, Atlanta has given up the ninth most points in the paint, which is great news for Antetokounmpo, given 68% of his shots have come in the paint this season. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Antetokounmpo brings the highest ceiling of any player in action tonight by nearly 15 points and owns a top-five leverage score on the slate. In other words, he isn’t seeing enough attention relative to his slate-best upside.
Paul George is another star that is rating highly as a leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. Kawhi Leonard (knee) and John Wall (rest) will be out tonight and in the three starts George has made sans these two this season, he is generating 59.3 DraftKings PPG. In the 278 minutes George has played with Leonard and Wall off the floor this season, his usage has risen 1.7 percentage points to 35.2% and he has provided 1.3 DraftKings PPM. Enter in a matchup with a Rockets’ defense that ranks second to last in defensive efficiency and George is one of the best contrarian options on the slate.
Dropping down a little, Scottie Barnes is forecast to be a top three most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight but isn’t a wise investment with the heavy ownership. The second-year player is gaining significant attention because the Raptors will be without Pascal Siakam (adductor), Fred VanVleet (illness) and Gary Trent Jr. (hip). While one would expect a massive role for Barnes in this situation, his usage has only increased 0.1 of a percentage point in the 164 minutes he has played with those three off the floor. Furthermore, after an encouraging start to the season, he has shot an abysmal 31% from the field across his last four starts. With Barnes appropriately priced for the Raptors’ being shorthanded and with the massive ownership coming his way, fading the 21-year-old is the right call tonight. O.G. Anunoby is an awesome direct pivot off Barnes, with the forward slated for nearly half the ownership of Barnes tonight. While Barnes’ usage hasn’t seen an upgrade with Siakam, VanVleet and Trent off the floor, Anunoby’s usage has leaped 7.6 percentage points to a team-high 28.9% in the 92 minutes he has played without these three starters over the last two seasons, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
It’s a very similar situation when it comes to value plays from the depleted Raptors. Malachi Flynn is expected to be massive chalk, making Dalano Banton the better target with less expected ownership. With VanVleet, Siakam and Trent off the court over the last two seasons, Banton has received a 23.8% usage rate and scored 1.0 DraftKings PPM, compared to Flynn, who has seen a 19.5% usage rate and contributed 0.8 DraftKings PPM. Stokastic is projecting Banton for nearly seven more fantasy points than Flynn tonight and he is rating as the No. 1 play on the slate in terms of leverage score for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Sticking with the Raptors, Chris Boucher is slated for around 20% ownership on both sites, but is a player we should be going overweight on. With Siakam, VanVleet and Trent Jr. off the floor over the last two seasons, Boucher’s usage ranks second only to Anunoby at 25.9% for the Raptors, which is a significant 7.1 percentage point upgrade from his average. This results in 1.1 DraftKings PPM for Boucher and with Precious Achiuwa (ankle) also unavailable, he has a direct path for around 30 minutes of work against the Pistons tonight, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Through the last 10 times the big man has logged a minimum of 36 minutes, Boucher is amassing 36 DraftKings PPG.
Facing the understaffed Raptors, Bojan Bogdanovic is a low-owned value play that has to be considered tonight. Cade Cunningham (shin) will miss his third straight game and in these past two with the guard inactive, Bogdanovic has impressed with 37.9 DraftKings PPG. With Cunningham off the court, Bogdanovic’s usage has risen 3.7 percentage points to 26.8% and he has generated 1.1 DraftKings PPM. Toronto has ranked 21st in defensive rating with Siakam sidelined and Bogdanovic is getting way overlooked for his upside in this spot.
Lastly, Charles Bassey is a cheap play that has plenty of upside and is projected for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. With Zach Collins (head) missing the last two, Bassey has operated as the Spurs’ primary backup center and has turned heads with his production, averaging 31 DraftKings points in only 17 minutes per game. The big man is collecting an elite 1.6 DraftKings PPM this season and brings much better upside than his salaries suggest tonight with Collins remaining sidelined and San Antonio going against a Warriors’ club that is 26th in defensive efficiency on the second leg of a back-to-back. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Bassey boasts a top-10 leverage score on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Situations to Monitor
Chris Paul (heel) is listed as questionable tonight but hasn’t been able to play through a questionable tag for back-to-back games. Per usual, his absence would open the door for Cameron Payne to be a core play at less than $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, despite his tough matchup with the Heat and him being a very popular option. As Paul’s replacement starter in these last two, Payne has produced 40.4 DraftKings points in 35 minutes per game.
Jalen Green (shoulder, questionable) is also a name to keep a close eye on. If the second-year guard misses his first game of the season, Kevin Porter Jr. would become an elite option that might not gain too much attention, given he is facing a Clippers’ defense that ranks third in efficiency. In the 66 minutes Porter Jr. has played with Green off the floor this season, the guard’s usage has jumped 7.9 percentage points to 34.4% and his assist rate has increased 8.7 percentage points to 35.7%, both of which are team highs for this situation. Thanks to these huge rates, Porter Jr. is contributing 1.3 DraftKings PPM without Green this season.
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