Need your NBA DFS Picks fix? Not to worry, Adam “ShipMyMoney” Scherer has you covered with the usually PREMIUM NBA Deep Dive, giving out his top picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft for Feb. 12.
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Guard
Luka Doncic
Doncic said that he will play tonight, and if he does, he is affordable at only $10,900 on DraftKings. If he is allowed to play his full 34 minutes tonight, he offers massive upside at that price point. Doncic has averaged 1.76 DraftKings points per minute in 32 games alongside Kristaps Porzingis this season with a 37.5 usage percentage, 14.7 rebounding percentage and 47.2 assist percentage. Sacramento is 22nd in defensive rating over the last month, though they are only 22nd in pace.
This is an important situation to keep an eye on throughout the day as Doncic is a great tournament target if he is a full go or if ownership is suppressed because we aren’t sure if he will be limited or not. If Doncic sits, Jalen Brunson gets a bump and Kristaps Porzingis becomes a core play once again.
Trae Young
Young faces the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Cleveland. The Cavaliers rank 16th in pace over the last month while allowing the most points per 100 possessions to opposing teams. Cleveland has allowed the 16th-most pick-and-roll possessions this season, but they rank in the sixth percentile in defensive efficiency against the pick-and-roll. Young’s 15.4 pick-and-roll possessions per game are the most in the league this season and he ranks in the 85th percentile in efficiency with 0.99 points per possession.
He also leads the league with 11.1 field goal attempts per game on his pick-and-roll possessions and only trails Damian Lillard in points scored in the pick-and-roll. Young has also benefited from playing alongside John Collins this season as he has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute in 23 games with Collins this season compared to 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games without Collins.
Damian Lillard
Lillard was disappointing last night against New Orleans as he struggled from the field and then didn’t play in the fourth quarter due to a blowout. Tonight, he gets another fast-paced matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis has actually played well defensively of late as they have the second best defensive rating in the league over the last month. For the season, Memphis has struggled to defend the pick-and-roll as they rank in the 34th percentile in points per possession allowed to pick-and-roll ball handlers and they have allowed the ninth-most pick-and-roll possessions per game.
Lillard averages the second-most pick-and-roll possessions per game this season and ranks in the 95th percentile in efficiency while leading the league in points scored in the pick-and-roll. Memphis has been extremely good at protecting the rim over the last month as only the Bucks have been better at defending within six feet of the rim. They have not been as good at defending the 3-point line, however, as they have been the 11th-worst team at defending against threes over the last month.
Overall, it is somewhat concerning that Memphis has played so well defensively lately, but the fact that they still play at a fast pace and that they have struggled to defend the pick-and-roll sets up well for Lillard. The loss of Jae Crowder at the trade deadline is also unlikely to do their defense any favors.
Devin Booker
Booker looks like a great option tonight against the Golden State Warriors. He is routinely playing 38-plus minutes in competitive games and he has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute in 24 games with Ricky Rubio over the last two months. We saw Booker lose production alongside Rubio earlier in the season, but he has a 31.2 usage percentage and 29.5 assist percentage in his last 24 games alongside him.
Golden State is eighth in pace and 27th in defensive rating over the last month. They also have allowed the 10th-most transition possessions per game and rank in the 34th percentile in defending in transition this season. Booker averages the ninth-most transition possessions per game this season and his 1.24 points per possession ranks in the 75th percentile for efficiency.
Eric Bledsoe
Bledsoe is priced up as Giannis Antetokounmpo is set to miss another game due to the birth of his child. He has been excellent without Giannis this season as he has averaged 1.80 DraftKings points per minute in three games played without Giannis this season and 1.54 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games without him since the start of last season. He has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.9 usage percentage and 36.1 assist percentage in 355 total minutes without Giannis on the floor this season.
If we add Khris Middleton to the floor, Bledsoe has still averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over 222 minutes with a 30.3 usage percentage and 31.9 assist percentage. Tonight’s matchup against the Pacers is a tough one as Indiana is 24th in pace and 16th in defensive rating over the last month. Still, Bledsoe has a high ceiling as he sees a large bump in production without Giannis.
Victor Oladipo
Oladipo is an interesting discussion as there are a lot of reasons to like him and a lot of reasons not to be excited about him tonight. On one hand, he is still only $4,800 on DraftKings and played 27.2 minutes as a starter in his last game. He has a 28.2 usage percentage through his first six games this season and is averaging 19.4 field goal attempts per 36 minutes since returning from injury. For comparison, he averaged 18.5 field goal attempts per 36 minutes last season. He has averaged 10.3 drives per 36 minutes this season compared to 10.7 drives per 36 minutes last season. So the opportunities are there for him to succeed.
The problem is that he is coming back from a serious injury and has clearly been rusty in his return. He had a 48.6 effective field goal percentage last season compared to a 35.3 effective field goal percentage so far this season. He averaged about 1.15 DraftKings points per minute last season and has averaged only 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season.
We obviously should expect him to improve his shooting as the sample size gets bigger. If we expect about 28 minutes from him tonight and expect the same 0.75 DraftKings points per minute that we have gotten so far this season, that would still be 21 DraftKings points in a neutral matchup — which isn’t a bad floor for a $4,800 price tag when we know the upside is extremely high based on his involvement in the offense. The issue ultimately ends up being ownership. Whenever there is a player with a wide range of outcomes like Oladipo has on a large slate, they are appealing targets if the field is looking elsewhere and strong fades if they are projected to be popular.
Honorable Mention: Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie, De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, Caris LeVert, Ricky Rubio
Value: Jalen Brunson (if Doncic is out), Dillon Brooks
Forward
Khris Middleton
Middleton has also been priced up for the matchup against Indiana. He has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games without Giannis since the start of last season and 1.63 DraftKings points per minute in five games without him this season. Middleton has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute in 525 minutes without Giannis on the floor overall this season and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in 222 minutes alongside Bledsoe without Giannis.
The matchup is unappealing as Indiana is one of the slower teams in the league and they aren’t bad defensively. Middleton has a high ceiling, but he looks like more of a GPP play if he is projected for relatively low ownership as there are better point-per-dollar options available.
Julius Randle
Randle is in a great spot against the Washington Wizards. Randle is playing about 34 minutes in competitive games and he has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute since the Knicks changed coaches in early December. Furthermore, he has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 555 minutes without Marcus Morris on the floor this season with a 30.7 usage percentage.
While per-minute numbers without a main player on the floor can be misleading, Randle’s numbers hold in the games that Morris has missed this season. Randle has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.7 usage percentage in nine games played without Morris. The Wizards rank seventh in pace and 29th in defensive rating over the last month. They have also allowed the 12th-most rebounds per game and the fifth-most points in the paint over that time.
Kelly Oubre
Oubre came off the bench for Phoenix in their last game for disciplinary reasons, so I assume that he will be back in the starting lineup tonight against Golden State. Like Booker, Oubre is one of the league leaders in transition possessions per game as he has averaged the 17th-most possessions per game and ranks in the 75th percentile with 1.24 points per possession.
Prior to playing 27 minutes off the bench in a blowout loss to the Lakers, Oubre had played at least 36 minutes in six straight games and seven of his last eight with at least 38 minutes in five of those eight games. He has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season and should produce at a higher rate than that in this matchup.
Cheick Diallo
Diallo played 39 minutes against the Lakers starting in place of an injured DeAndre Ayton. Ayton is questionable for tonight’s game, and if he is unable to go, Diallo looks like one of the top values on the slate as the Phoenix frontcourt will be extremely thin. Diallo has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in 388 minutes played this season. Of those 388 minutes, 196 have come alongside Booker and he has maintained an average of 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in that time.
P.J. Washington
Washington is only $4,400 on DraftKings in a favorable matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota is fifth in pace over the last month and replacing Andrew Wiggins with D’Angelo Russell could make them even faster. They also rank 25th in defensive rating over that time and losing Robert Covington isn’t likely to help them defensively.
Washington played just shy of 36 minutes in his last game and has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season. His playing time has fluctuated all season long, but we know that he has the potential to play 36 minutes if he is playing well and Marvin Williams’ departure could help to solidify his playing time.
Honorable Mention: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Love (questionable), Jaren Jackson, Bojan Bogdanovic
Other Value: Larry Nance (expected to start if Love sits), Ersan Ilyasova, Trevor Ariza, James Johnson
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns faces the Charlotte Hornets tonight, who have been one of the weaker defenses in the league this season, ranking 20th in defensive rating over the last month. The Hornets are also the slowest team in the league, which is a negative for all of Minnesota. Still, Towns has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute this season and there is a chance that production could increase as he plays with a better ball-dominant facilitator in D’Angelo Russell than he had most of the season in Wiggins.
Andre Drummond
Drummond gets one of the best matchups in basketball as he faces the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta is 26th in defensive rating and third in pace over the last month. They have allowed the third-most points in the paint over that time and the seventh-most total rebounds per game. Drummond was on pace for about 33 minutes had his first game with Cleveland been competitive to the end. Not surprisingly, Drummond led Cleveland with 22 rebound chances in his first game with the team, which was 10 more than second-place Kevin Love. He also had 17 field goal attempts in that game, so based on one game, it seems like he is going to be able to produce at a similar level to what we saw in Detroit.
Hassan Whiteside
Whiteside was great on a per-minute basis last night as he accumulated 41.5 DraftKings points in 27 minutes against New Orleans. The problem was that Terry Stotts emptied the bench early in the fourth quarter and never brought his starters back. Assuming this game is competitive, we should expect the normal 34-plus minutes from Whiteside. He has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute this season and he should benefit from the increased rebounding chances that this fast-paced game will offer. He also has block upside against a high usage center in Jonas Valanciunas and a point guard who looks to get to the rim in Ja Morant.
Jonas Valanciunas
Valanciunas is in an interesting tournament play. We know that he is a great per-minute producer as he has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute this season. His playing time is usually the concern since we have seen games in the low-to-mid-30s in minutes but also games where he only plays 24 minutes despite not being in foul trouble or a blowout. His minutes have been more consistent recently, however, and this is a matchup that I think could lead to Valanciunas seeing the top of his playing time range.
Portland has a true center in Whiteside, who we expect to play 34 minutes if the game is competitive. Whiteside isn’t a threat to pull Valanciunas away from the basket, which is what tends to get him benched in-game. I think that we will see 30-plus minutes from Valanciunas tonight which makes him a high-upside option at low ownership.
Honorable Mention: Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gobert, Bam Adebayo, Christian Wood, Serge Ibaka (questionable)
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