High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Anthony Davis Racking Up Numbers

Tuesday features a small four-game slate and a lack of stud options to choose from. One specific stud could turn into a great option if his teammate is ruled out once again with an injury. Follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight and to get the latest news. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, starting with Lakers big man Anthony Davis.

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NBA DFS Boom: Anthony Davis: $10,500 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel

11.6% DraftKings Boom/7.5% FanDuel Boom

There are few stud pay-up plays on this slate, but Lakers center Anthony Davis has been spectacular recently without LeBron James in the lineup. Over the last three games specifically, Davis is averaging a massive 35.0 points and 17.3 rebounds per game, paired with a 37.4% usage rate. James is questionable yet again but hasn’t played in four straight games. Surprisingly, the Lakers have gone 3-1 during that time, but they are still looking for their first road win of the season. It may not come tonight as 7.5-point road underdogs, but Davis will surely do whatever he can to keep his team afloat.

With Davis having such a large usage rate and massive recent production, it is tough to ignore him in this spot despite the difficult matchup. Davis doesn’t have a large boom percentage at the moment since James is still questionable, but it would be a little shocking if he came back in this game on the road against the Suns. Through 16 games, the Suns have the eighth-highest defensive rating in the league while averaging 107.9 points per game. In five games without James this season, Davis is averaging 31.6 points and 14.0 rebounds per game. He is the best pay-up option on the slate.

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NBA DFS Boom: Bones Hyland: $6,700 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel

38.7% DraftKings Boom/34.7% FanDuel Boom

Projected to play 29.7 minutes tonight, Bones Hyland has the highest value on FanDuel and the fourth highest on DraftKings in Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections. He has the same ranking in in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool on both sites, as he is in a great spot with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray doubtful to play due to the COVID protocols. Hyland will continue to be a focal point in the Nuggets offense with these two top-producing players out. Over the last three games, Hyland is averaging 22.3 points per game and a 33.8% usage rate, with Murray out for two games and Jokic out for all three.

The Nuggets are 5.5-point home favorites implied for 115 points against the Pistons, who have the second-worst defensive rating (117.7) entering tonight’s games. Even when Jokic and Murray were playing, Hyland held a team-high 31% usage rate off the bench. He is still coming off the bench but playing much more and producing at an elite level. His salary may be a little bit of a sticker shock, but Hyland is coming off of a season-high 29 points in his last game. With such an easy matchup, Hyland should be able to exceed value once again.

NBA DFS Boom: Paul Reed: $3,700 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel

40.9% DraftKings Boom/28.8% FanDuel Boom

Finding a 76ers value piece on this slate is tougher than it should be, but Paul Reed might be the best bet. He has played 12 minutes in back-to-back games while averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. With James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and especially Joel Embiid out tonight, Reed is projected for 21.5 minutes in Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections. It is anyone’s guess with head coach Doc Rivers, but so many players being out should put Reed in line for a lot more minutes tonight. He has the second-highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the fifth highest on FanDuel.

Reed is center-only eligible on both sites but is much cheaper on DraftKings, where he is preferred given the roster flexibility. Even with Embiid playing, Reed has averaged 6.5 potential rebounds per game. If he plays well over 20 minutes tonight, he has a chance to break the slate at this salary. Keeping Reed out of foul trouble is one of the biggest concerns, but he doesn’t need to do much to exceed value. The 76ers are nearly double-digit underdogs at home, but getting exposure to Reed is a great way to save some salary on this slate despite the lack of stud options.

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NBA DFS Bust: Kyrie Irving: $9,400 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel

64.0% DraftKings Bust/51.0% FanDuel Bust

Fading one stud is a difficult decision, as no one in the upper pricing tier looks all that good. Kyrie Irving is the top fade because he only played 26 minutes in his first game back from suspension. Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections have Irving going 34.8 minutes, but he still rates out as one of the worst plays on the slate given his salary, especially on DraftKings. With Kevin Durant one of the top scorers in the league once again and Ben Simmons joining the starting lineup, Irving may take a little bit of a backseat in his production.

Looking at Stokastic’s NBA DFS rankings, there are so many studs who have very poor value rankings. Irving on DraftKings is one of the worst, as he has a B grade and a D value. Through nine games, Irving is averaging over 20 field goal attempts for the fourth straight season with the Nets. However, he only had 12 field goal attempts in his last game, with Simmons starting and finding his way in the Nets offense. There are too many mouths to feed and only one ball to go around. Even though this salary doesn’t look all that bad, fading Irving on DraftKings is a safe bet.

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