High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Fade Giannis Antetokounmpo Against 76ers

Fridays in the NBA are known for their big slates and tonight is no different. We have 11 games to choose from as news will be flying around all afternoon. It is very important to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to make sure who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, prioritizing 76ers superstar Joel Embiid.

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NBA DFS Boom: Joel Embiid: $11,300 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel

30.4% DraftKings Boom/30.4% FanDuel Boom

Joel Embiid went nuclear in his last game scoring a career-high 100.3 DraftKings points! He was nearing a quadruple double as he had 59 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists, and seven blocks in 37 minutes while shooting 19 of 28 from the field and 20 of 24 from the charity stripe. That was even on a back-to-back where some thought he might not even play. Incredible performance from Embiid as he is the stud with the highest boom percentage on both sites at 30.4%. Even in a matchup against the Bucks tough defense, Embiid playing without James Harden is a player with an enormous ceiling.

In our Stokastic projections, Embiid has the second-highest fantasy score on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind only Luka Doncic who is $800 more expensive on FanDuel and $1,400 more expensive on DraftKings. Embiid is the best pay-up option on the slate. The Bucks will make life a little bit more difficult than the Jazz did, but in four games without Harden this season, Embiid is averaging 40 points, 11 rebounds, and has a 43% usage rate per game. It has been five days since Embiid and the 76ers have last played, so he will be well-rested and ready to dominate again tonight.

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NBA DFS Boom: Jalen Green: $6,500 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel

33.6% DraftKings Boom/25.1% FanDuel Boom

The best fantasy environment on this 11-game slate game is this matchup between the Rockets and Pacers. Priced in the mid-range at $6,500 on both sites, Jalen Green may get the luxury of playing without fellow backcourt teammate Kevin Porter Jr. tonight in what should be an electric up-tempo game. The Rockets were second in pace last year and eighth so far this season, while the Pacers rank second in pace this year and have played fast ever since Tyrese Haliburton came over from the Kings. This game has a slate-high 236.5-point total, which makes Green look incredible.

In his second year in the league, Green is leading the team in scoring with 21.7 points per game while setting career-highs in rebounds, assists, and percentages all over the court. He ranks inside the top five in boom percentage on DraftKings and just outside of it on FanDuel. However, he is in the top five in projected ownership on both sites as this game will draw a lot of attention. Not only do both teams play very fast, but they also are in the bottom six of defensive rating this season. So much to like about Green’s upside already and it will be elevated if Porter Jr. is ruled out.

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NBA DFS Boom: Bones Hyland: $5,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel

47.2% DraftKings Boom/24.9% FanDuel Boom

Another combo guard who looks phenomenal on this slate is Bones Hyland. Both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are out due to the COVID protocols, while Aaron Gordon is questionable with an illness. That is a ton of usage to go around even with the Nuggets having the lowest implied total on the slate at 103.25 points. They are nine-point road underdogs against the Mavericks who are playing at the slowest pace in the league for the second-straight season. Don’t get too carried away with this Nuggets team tonight, but Hyland looks like a really great value play.

Hyland has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings by nearly 10% and the 10th-highest on FanDuel at $5,800. Prioritize Hyland on DraftKings, but with this much usage and upside, he will be tough to ignore on FanDuel as well. In his second year in the league, Hyland is averaging a career-high 14.7 points per game while shooting 50% from behind the arc making 3.1 3-pointers per game. He has improved on his perimeter jump shot after shooting 36.6% from downtown last season. Hyland has the highest value in our Stokastic projections on DraftKings and should thrive in this role.

NBA DFS Bust: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,600 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel

58.0% DraftKings Bust/45.5% FanDuel Bust

The last three games have been a struggle for one of the league’s best players. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in his last three games, while his season average has dropped to 1.76 per minute. Even though the 1.39 is still good, Giannis has only averaged 30 minutes per game while averaging 41.6 DraftKings points per game. That is not going to get it done at this salary on either site. He has the highest bust percentage among the elite players due to his poor recent play and with Jrue Holiday likely back after he practiced on Tuesday.

It is rare to see these very low values for Giannis when he has been one of the best fantasy players in the league for the past few years. Everyone goes through slumps and Giannis is in one right now. In our NBA DFS Rankings, Giannis is the only player in the upper pricing tier with a D value on DraftKings and a C value on FanDuel. Especially on DraftKings in our Stokastic projections, Giannis is grading out as one of the worst plays on the slate. The 76ers play at the second-slowest pace in the league and rank in the top 10 in least points allowed in the paint. Pay up for Embiid but fade Giannis in this 76ers vs. Bucks matchup.

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