High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant Stands Alone in Backcourt

Wednesday features a large 13-game slate with a plethora of top-tier options to choose from. Keep an eye on injury news cycling throughout the day by following Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the large slate, starting with Grizzlies star point guard Ja Morant.

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NBA DFS Boom: Ja Morant: $10,900 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel

28.5% DraftKings Boom/38.8% FanDuel Boom

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander questionable with a hip injury, the clear-cut ceiling point guard option on this 13-game slate is Ja Morant. He is shooting a little worse from the field this year compared to last but is averaging a career-high 28.5 points per game. Morant also has increased both his rebounding and assist numbers and is coming off of his fifth triple-double in his career, with 27 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds. Prioritize Morant on FanDuel, where he has the fourth-highest boom percentage on the slate and is only $10,000. He leads all pay-up options in boom percentage as well (38.8%).

Another boost to Morant’s upside tonight is playing without backcourt mate Desmond Bane. In six games without Bane in the lineup this season, Morant has increased his scoring, rebounding and assist numbers while averaging 52.9 DraftKings points per game. The Timberwolves play at the third-fastest pace in the league and allow 116 points per game. There will be plenty of opportunities for Morant to reach value playing this quickly. This slate is loaded with star power, but Morant makes the case for a great tournament option, as he has by far the highest value among elite players on FanDuel in Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections.

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NBA DFS Boom: Nicolas Claxton: $5,800 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel

44.9% DraftKings Boom/43.6% FanDuel Boom

One of the best mid-range plays on this large slate is Nets center Nicolas Claxton. With Ben Simmons out tonight due to injury, Claxton will really see a bump in production. He is coming off of a season-high 36 minutes, and he recorded his third double-double in his last four games. During that time, Claxton is averaging 13.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and 3.3 blocks while playing 31.5 minutes per game. He has the second-highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the fourth highest on DraftKings.

In his fourth season with the Nets, Claxton is averaging career highs across all statistics while shooting a ridiculous 73.4% from the field. The Wizards have been much better defensively this season, but they did allow 62 points in the paint in their most recent game. In his lone matchup against the Wizards this season, Claxton had 18 points on 9 of 10 shooting from the field while also pulling down nine rebounds. Tonight is another great opportunity for Claxton to add to his double-double list. He is one of the best values on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections.

NBA DFS Boom: Kyle Anderson: $3,800 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel

41.0% DraftKings Boom/28.8% FanDuel Boom

Going back to the Grizzlies – Timberwolves matchup, Kyle Anderson is one of the best values on the slate. Anderson will likely move into the starting lineup for Karl-Anthony Towns, who will be out 4 to 6 weeks with a calf injury. In Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool, the Timberwolves have five of the top seven players with the highest boom percentages on DraftKings. There are so many options to choose from on this team, but Anderson is the cheapest of the bunch. He won’t be a secret by any means, as he is projected to be the highest-owned player on DraftKings and second highest on FanDuel.

The Grizzlies rank in the bottom 10 of defensive rating while allowing 114.3 points per game. Their defense is much worse than last season, making this an exploitable matchup for Anderson. Anderson has played 20 or more minutes in 11 of his last 12 games, and Stokastic’s model has him projected for 26.9 tonight without Towns. That seems on the lighter end, but playing so many minutes, Anderson will have plenty of opportunities to exceed value at such a cheap price tag. He likely won’t reach double-digit points, but Anderson can score fantasy points in a variety of ways by stuffing the stat sheet.

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NBA DFS Bust: Anthony Davis: $10,700 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel

44.0% DraftKings Bust/42.4% FanDuel Bust

Finding a player to fade is getting tougher and tougher each slate, as pricing looks perfect on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, Anthony Davis has one of the highest bust percentages on both sites in the upper pricing tier. With LeBron James healthy and back in the lineup, Davis’ production takes a massive dip. Both DraftKings and FanDuel haven’t quite adjusted to his dip, as he is priced higher than James on both sites. In 11 games with James in the lineup, Davis is averaging 49 DraftKings points, compared to 63.3 DraftKings points per game with James out of the lineup.

The Lakers are 5-point home favorites, as they have finally started to play better on both ends of the court. They lead the league in pace, but their offensive rating still ranks 27th entering tonight’s games. The Jazz defense has taken a major hit recently, losing five straight games and eight of their last 10. As their fairy tale season is quickly going away, the Lakers can take advantage and get close to a .500 record. Even in a great matchup, it is tough to back Davis with James in the lineup at this salary. There are so many studs to pay up for, and Davis is not on the priority list.

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