NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Damian Lillard Hottest Hand in Basketball

On the menu for Wednesday is a 10-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Wednesday, Dec. 14.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 14

High-End Tier

There are some very appealing low-owned studs that need to be attacked tonight. With an ownership projection hovering around 3% for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections, Nikola Jokic is standing out as the best option over $10,000 to pursue in GPPs. He is coming off a season-best 80.5 DraftKings points against the Jazz on Saturday and has scored over 60 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts. Tonight the Nuggets will remain without Michael Porter Jr. (heel) and are hosting the Wizards, who rank 22nd in defensive efficiency. In the 476 minutes Jokic has played with Porter off the court this season, his usage increased 1.5 percentage points to 30.1% and he has produced 1.7 DraftKings points per minute. Jokic has been nearly 5 DraftKings points per game better at home this season compared to when on the road and facing this soft Washington defense, Denver carries the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate (117.75 points). For the eight occasions he has played behind an implied team total of 115 points or more at home this season, Jokic has been a monster, scoring 59 DraftKings points per game.

Riding the hot hand of Damian Lillard also has a ton of merit tonight, especially with Stokastic forecasting him for less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In his first four starts back from a seven-game absence due to a calf injury, Lillard has looked outstanding, generating 54 DraftKings points per game. During this stretch, Lillard has seen a 33% usage rate, shot 50.9% from beyond the arc and averaged 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. In a gorgeous spot against the Spurs tonight, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and 12th in pace, Lillard’s impressive play should continue with a showing of at least 50 DraftKings points. This game’s total is the second highest on the slate (231.5 points) and Portland’s implied team total is the second largest on the board (119.25 points).

In the $7,000 to $9,000 range, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are expected to be the most popular options with Jimmy Butler (rest) out, according to Stokastic’s projections. Add in a stellar home matchup with a Thunder club that leads the league in pace, and Adebayo and Herro are difficult fades at their current price tags. With Butler off the floor this season, Adebayo and Herro lead the Heat in usage at 28.4% and 27.5%, respectively, resulting in 1.2 DraftKings for both players. Furthermore, both Adebayo and Herro are averaging 43 DraftKings points per game with Butler out of the lineup this season.

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Value Tier

Stokastic is anticipating Bogdan Bogdanovic to be chalky tonight, but the wing is a difficult fade Hawks shorthanded, especially at only $5,000 on DraftKings. After being rested Monday, Bogdanovic will return tonight, while Dejounte Murray (ankle) and John Collins (ankle) are out, and Trae Young (back) is questionable. Before sitting out Monday, Bogdanovic was flourishing with Murray and Collins unavailable, providing 45.3 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes per game with a 28% usage rate in his previous two. Young played in both games and if he ends up joining Murray and Collins on the sidelines tonight, Bogdanovic will simply be unavoidable in this plus matchup with the Magic, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency. Albeit in limited sample of 45 minutes, Bogdanovic has posted a 30.7% usage rate and recorded 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with Young, Murray and Collins off the floor this season. A.J. Griffin will also be a great value play if Young sits, and he surely would come with less ownership than Bogdanovic. In the 77 minutes Griffin played without Young, Murray and Collins, he had a 28.6% usage rate and led the Hawks with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.

With Jakob Poeltl (knee) out and Zach Collins (ankle) doubtful, the Spurs are also creating a very tough punt play to overlook in Charles Bassey. He should start at center in this situation and has much better upside than his salaries suggest in this matchup with the Blazers that presents the second-highest total on the slate (231.5 points). This season, Bassey is averaging 1.2 DraftKings points per minute and 24 DraftKings points per game when he has logged over 20 minutes (six games). As Bassey’s backup tonight, Gorgui Dieng should easily outperform his near minimum salaries and is a very appealing punt with Stokastic projecting him to come with essentially no ownership on either DraftKings and FanDuel. Dieng is collecting 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season and finished with 20.75 DraftKings points across 21.3 minutes of work in the lone game that both Poeltl and Collins have missed this season. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Dieng is rating as a top-10 leverage target on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. On DraftKings, where you can fit two centers in the same lineup, rostering Bassey and Dieng together is a strategy that will help you jam in multiple studs and will be considered by very few DFS players.

Lastly, Chris Boucher is an intriguing value tonight, particularly on DraftKings, where Stokastic is forecasting him for sub 5% ownership. O.G. Anunoby (hip) will miss second straight game tonight and with inactive Monday, Boucher delivered 24.25 DraftKings points against the Magic. While this wasn’t the greatest result, he played an encouraging 27.4 minutes and closed the game with the starters. With this type of role tonight against the Kings, who rank sixth in pace and on the second leg of a back-to-back, Boucher should have a better outing than Monday and brings an excellent ceiling relative to his modest price tags. Boucher is averaging 1 DraftKings points per minute and 32 DraftKings points per game for the 11 times he has received at least 25 minutes this season.

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Situations to Monitor

D’Angelo Russell (knee) is questionable tonight, while Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) remains out. While the Wolves are in a tough spot against the Clippers, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency, Jaylen Nowell will likely start and have to be considered if Russell joins Towns on the inactive list. In the 203 minutes Nowell has played with Russell and Towns off the floor, he has produced 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, thanks to a 28.5% usage rate, which ranks second on the team for this situation, only trailing Anthony Edwards. Speaking of Edwards, he will be a terrific high-end spend if Russell is sidelined and shouldn’t come with much ownership. With Russell and Towns off the court, Edwards’ usage rises 5.6 percentage points to 32.4%, lifting him to 1.4 DraftKings points per minute.

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