NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Much to Monitor in Miami

Thursday presents a four-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Thursday, Dec. 15.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 15

High-End Tier

For Thursday’s four-game slate, the most popular route for roster construction is building around Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is slated for over 30% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. The primary reasons for Antetokounmpo’s high expected ownership is that Jrue Holiday (illness) is out for the Bucks. Contrary to popular belief, Holiday’s absence actually doesn’t change much for Antetokounmpo, with his usage not moving a budge with Holiday off the court this season. Antetokounmpo’s fantasy production has actually slightly decreased sans Holiday and let’s not forget that Khris Middleton (bel0w) is back and heathy for the Bucks. Furthermore, Antetokounmpo will be on the road tonight in Memphis and he is averaging 2.4 DraftKings points per game less when away from Milwaukee this season. So, while this is an ideal setting to attack, with this matchup with the Grizzlies presenting the second highest total on the slate (226.5 points) and a tight spread of 2 points, fading Antetokounmpo makes sense and is a move that will naturally differentiate your lineup from the crowd.

Opting for a cheaper and much less owned Ja Morant in this marquee matchup is an appealing strategy for GPPs. Desmond Bane (toe) remains out for the Grizzlies, and with him off the floor this season, Morant’s usage has risen 1.2 percentage points to 39%, resulting in 1.6 DraftKings points per minute. Not having to match up with Holiday, who is one of the best defensive guards in the NBA is huge for Morant, and he is averaging 58 DraftKings points per game in spreads under 3. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Morant is expected to be less than 20% owned according to Stokastic’s projections.

Paul George is also a terrific target priced around $9K on both DraftKings and FanDuel with Kawhi Leonard likely to be rested with this being the second leg of a back-to-back for the Clippers. George has looked great recently, topping 50 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts and with Leonard off the floor this season, George has led the Clippers with 1.3 DraftKings points per minute and a 32.4% usage rate, which is a 1.7-percentage-point increase from his season average. George is going against a Suns defense that ranks third-to-last in defensive efficiency across their last three games and could be without Deandre Ayton (questionable, ankle). In this situation, George is a strong investment for over 50 fantasy points.

Update: George has been ruled out tonight, along with Leonard (rest), Reggie Jackson (Achilles) and Norman Powell (groin). With the Clippers extremely shorthanded, John Wall should enter the first unit and is one of the best values on the slate. With Leonard, George, Jackson and Powell off the floor this season, Wall has handled a team-high 37,7% usage rate and supplied 1.3 DraftKings PPM. Terance Mann should also see huge minutes in this rare situation and is a terrific value. With those four key players off the floor, Mann collects 0.9 DraftKings PPM. Also, Ivica Zubac (knee) is questionable and if the center joins the Clippers’ long inactive list, Robert Covington and Moses Brown would see most of the minutes at center and be elite punt plays, especially on DraftKings, where both players are priced at the bare minimum. With Leonard, George, Jackson and Powell off the court this season, Covington and Brown are amassing 1.3 and 1.1 DraftKings PPM, respectively.

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Value Tier

Exceeding 40 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts, Jalen Green is expected to be very chalky tonight. Notably, Stokastic is anticipating him to be the most rostered player on DraftKings. While Green is in encouraging form, the Rockets are essentially at full strength, only missing Jae’Sean Tate (ankle), and they are in a ugly spot against the Heat, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace. The Rockets’ implied team total is the lowest on the slate (107.5 points), and Green is bad chalk.

Similarly priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Khris Middleton is also expected to be popular – projected to be a top-five most rostered player on both sites in Stokastic’s projections – but good chalk. While a limited sample of only 41 minutes, Middleton has seen his usage jump 4.6 percentage points to 26.6% with Holiday off the court this season, helping him score 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. With this an island game for the Bucks, Middleton should see close to 35 minutes and effortlessly beat his current price tags. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Middleton is rating as a top-five on the slate in Stokastic’s projections.

Forecasted for less than 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Bobby Portis is also standing out from the Holiday-less Bucks. With Holiday out Tuesday, Portis delivered 42.25 DraftKings points in 32 minutes off the bench. He is now averaging 34.6 DraftKings points per game in the six contests Holiday has missed this season. Also, Dyson Daniels is a cheap low-owned punt to consider from the Pelicans. With Brandon Ingram (toe) and Jose Alvarado (rib) out tonight, Daniels should find himself in the 25- to 30-minute range in this slate-high total against the Jazz (232 points). This season, Daniels is generating 0.81 DraftKings points per minute and 22.5 DraftKings when he has seen a minimum of 25 minutes (six games).

Situations to Monitor

After Wednesday’s win over the Thunder, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo were called “uncertain” for tonight’s matchup in Houston. The important one here is Adebayo, who leads the Heat in usage this season. If he sits, Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler will become terrific high-end options against this Rockets defense that ranks 26th in efficiency that will see further boosts if Lowry is also inactive. With Adebayo off the floor this season, Herro and Butler lead Miami in usage at 28.6% and 25.2%, respectively. Also, Dewayne Dedmon would be a viable punt if named the starter for Adebayo. This season, Dedmon is averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

Along with Ayton, Devin Booker (hamstring) is questionable for the Suns tonight. If Ayton is inactive, Bismack Biyombo would start and instantly become one of the best values this short slate has to offer. With Ayton missing the second half Tuesday, Biyombo started the second half in his place and finished with 23 DraftKings points across 22 minutes. Biyombo is averaging 1 DraftKings point per minute this season and 24.6 DraftKings points per game when he cracks the 20-minute mark. Now, if Booker remains sidelined and Ayton also sits, Chris Paul will become even better. Paul’s usage increases 2.4 percentage points to 19.1% with Booker off the floor this season and that number rises to 20.3% with both Ayton and Booker off the court. Additionally, if Booker remains sidelined, Landry Shamet will likely start again and be a viable punt. Shamet posted 28 DraftKings points across 33 minutes Tuesday against the Rockets and contributes 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with Booker off the court this season.

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