October 18 brings us NBA Opening Night with gigantic contests on DraftKings and FanDuel tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Let’s look at the player pool and discuss the top NBA DFS picks today for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups. As always, you can head over to the Awesemo NBA DFS & Fantasy Basketball home page for all the fantasy basketball content you need for any given slate.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Tuesday, October 18
Core Play of the Day — Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 51.66 | FanDuel: 50.32
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 46.0% | FanDuel: 45.5%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $10,700
Looking across the DFS landscape, it looks like Joel Embiid should be the focus of our “main” lineups. Clearly he was worn down at the end of last season, so this is as refreshed and healthy as he will be all year. Even better, Robert Williams III (knee) is likely to be out through the holidays, so that means some combination of Al Horford, Blake Griffin and Jayson Tatum will be tasked with “guarding” Embiid in the paint. Advantage Embiid!
Jayson Tatum: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 45.35 | FanDuel: 43.42
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 42.1% | FanDuel: 39.0%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $9,800
Sifting through the rest of the player pool, Jayson Tatum is the clear second best option from a DFS perspective. Minutes are not going to be a question tonight for the 24-year-old forward. How crazy is it that this will be the sixth NBA campaign for the Boston All-Star and he is not even in the prime of his career.
Malcolm Brogdon will be working in as the sixth-man this season, backing up both Derrick White and Marcus Smart and while all three will see plenty of minutes, getting over the tipping point of 32 or more could entirely be dependent on a “hot hand” situation with this trio all capable of running the offense or playing off the ball. Keep in mind that we have absolutely no idea what interim head coach Joe Mazzulla will be doing as he takes over the helm of this team in the absence of Ime Udoka who has been suspended for the entire season.
Additional OpportunitiesÂ
James Harden is an interesting option in the NBA player props market. He has an 8.5 over/under on his assist prop, and the Awesemo NBA player projections have him for 7.1 assists, which gives him a 71% probability of falling short of this milestone. Last year in 21 games with the 76ers, Harden averaged 10.5 assists. That dropped to 8.6 in the playoffs which is a decent proxy for tonight’s matchup against Boston. Also keep in mind that Philadelphia has added De’Anthony Melton and with everyone currently healthy, Doc Rivers does not have to rely on Harden to carry the load with Tyrese Maxey, Shake Milton, Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmaz all in the mix for backcourt minutes.
The Wild Wild West
Starting with the defending champions, at the beginning of training camp, head coach Steve Kerr said he was not sure how his rotation would be playing out. Then in his latest interview he said he was not sure how many of his players had the appropriate conditioning to play more than 30 minutes. Ladies and gentlemen, the NBA is back!
So this is likely a bit of gamesmanship and a lot of hullaballoo. The starting lineup will likely be Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney. The first three are all but assured of getting at least 30 minutes tonight, so there is no concern about rolling them out as mainstays in most lineups. Jordan Poole will be the third guard and he too should approach 30 minutes backing up Curry and Thompson.
Newcomer Donte DiVincenzo should be in line for at least 20 minutes and he is more than capable of playing three positions and he should step into most of the playing time vacated by Gary Payton II. The wild card is of course James Wiseman who has played in only 39 games for his career after missing all of last season. Speculation is that he will see somewhere between 15 and 20 minutes, though he could fall short of that expectation as Jonathan Kuminga made great strides in the postseason and former Denver Nugget JaMychal Green is in the mix as well and can cover all of the frontcourt positions.
Naturally the Lakers will continue to put the “fun” in dysfunction this season and it all starts tonight. Russell Westbrook is clearly a disastrous option and a poor fit with this team as a ball-dominate guard who constantly bricks open looks and is a liability on defense. It will be interesting to see how new head coach Darvin Ham handles the delicate ego of Westbrook, while also putting his best squad on the floor.
LeBron Davis and Anthony James of course are the best producers on this team, though this has been accounted for with their DFS salaries. Though it is not yet official, it does look like Patrick Beverley and Lonnie Walker IV, will be making their debut as starters in their first game wearing the purple and gold.
Dennis Schroder is back with Los Angeles, but he is going to be out for the next month after needing surgery for a thumb injury. That means Kendrick Nunn should see plenty of action at a near minimum salary across the DFS sites. The 27-year-old missed all of last season with a deep bone bruise in his knee, so while he is unlikely to overdo anything tonight, he still should see enough minutes to be the best value option in the player pool. Austin Reaves could potentially find himself in the starting lineup at times this season and he had 19 starts as a rookie. He is able to contribute across the board and fill in with whatever the Lakers need in any given matchup. Do not let him get lost in the shuffle as he is the perfect pivot away from Nunn for direct leverage. Both can also be employed in the same lineups.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks
Tonight will be a fun one, but the real season begins on Wednesday with two dozen teams taking the court. Remember that NBA news tends to be fast and furious as well as late-breaking with only moments to react before tip off. Even on Opening Night, we already have coach Steve Kerr playing word games when it comes to his rotation.
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