Saturday, February 29 (2/29/20) locks at 7:30 p.m. EST with a seven-game main slate. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Jayson Tatum, Deandre Ayton, Damian Lee and more.
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Prime Time Players
Jayson Tatum: Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets
DraftKings $9,400, FanDuel $9,200, Yahoo $43; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 10.0%, FanDuel 18.4% Yahoo 10.4%
Though I am expecting to see Jayson Tatum’s popularity in the low 20 pOWN% range, I am thrilled that others will be looking elsewhere. There are a lot of good plays tonight and we should continue to see other options become available as injury reports are released, but we must remember that ownership and lineup construction can be a major difference maker in seeing our names in lights or just getting a minimum cash in tournaments.
Since returning on January 30th from a three game absence while dealing with a groin injury, Tatum has been phenomenal. In those dozen games, which include 23.9 and 28.6 minutes in his first two games, he is averaging 35.5 minutes per game and 1.38 fantasy points per minutes. The raw figures are even more impressive with 19.7 field goal attempts, 29.7 points, 4.08 made three-pointers, 7.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 2.25 combined blocks and steals along with three double doubles.
When these two teams met in Houston on February 11th, Tatum suffered his worst shooting performance of this dozen game sample size. He was 5 of 15 from the field and 5 of 9 from the charity stripe with no longballs. Playing at home should help him in the ABC Saturday NBA featured game.
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Good Value
Deandre Ayton: Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $9,000, Yahoo $36; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 11.9%, FanDuel 29.6% Yahoo 38.4%
The only thing keeping Deandre Ayton and friends from being my top play is that this is their third game in four nights and their fourth in six nights. With Kelly Oubre Jr likely done for the year, that leaves 14.8 field goal attempts and 6.4 rebounds along with 34.5 minutes that need to be filled. We know that the Suns are lottery bound once again, but they are still just four games out of the playoffs. Fortunately they have been closing out games with their usual guys, so the tanking has not yet begun in earnest.
Though this is the fourth and final time these two teams have met, it is the first time Ayton will be facing the ‘Dubs this year. He missed two tilts early this season when he was serving his 25-game suspension and he was out for the last one with an injury. This is a good matchup as Marquese Chriss is not much of a defender or intimidating rebounder. Devin Booker and Ricky Rubio also deserve a long look when building lineups tonight.
Damion Lee: Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
DraftKings $5,300, FanDuel $5,800, Yahoo $15; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings <5.0%%, FanDuel <5.0% Yahoo 8.0%
Currently Damion Lee is barely seeing one-percent ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, though I expect that to change. Andrew Wiggins should be able to return from a one game absence for back spasms and I expect Jordan Poole (ankle) to play as well.
In ten games this month, Lee has been a steady presence with 30.2 minutes per game at a 0.9 fantasy point per minute rate. He has averaged 28.0 fantasy points with 15.2 points, 2.9 made three-pointers, 3.8 assists and 1.4 combined blocks and steals. Clearly Lee is in the Warriors future plans as they converted his two-way contract into a three-year $4.5M deal. Once Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson return next season, Lee will provide solid guard depth as he is getting a ton of on the job training right now. If you are looking to game stack, then Wiggins and Chriss would be my next two options and I want nothing to do with Draymond Green.
Risky Value
Dario Saric: Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $3,800, Yahoo $10; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 17.3%, FanDuel 41.1% Yahoo 41.4%
This is fun since yesterday when we were hurting for value plays, I listed Dario Saric in the good value section. While he was not overly thrilling notching 11 points, three rebounds and two assists in 27.0 minutes, that did not earn him a demotion to this category. On FanDuel and Yahoo where he is still under priced for his starting role, he is a fine play. Instead it is the 40%+ popularity on those sites that have him nominated as a risky play.
Saric is averaging a perfectly respectable 0.80 to 0.85 fantasy points per minute depending on your site of choice. The upside has just not been there as evidenced by him topping 25+ fantasy points only three times in 23 games since Christmas. Yes a sprained ankle cost him nine games, but he started 15 of those 23 games and still did not have a single slate impacting performance. Caveat Emptor!
Yahoo Fantasy NBA DFS Discount Dandies
Rudy Gay: SAS vs. ORL – $10
Gary Trent Jr: POR at ATL – $11
Cam Reddish: ATL vs. POR – $11
NBA DFS Picks: SuperDraft
Jayson Tatum: Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets – 1.25x multiplier
Jaylen Brown: Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets- 1.60x multiplier
Nikola Vucevic: Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs – 1.25x multiplier
Our standout SuperDraft recommendations for today include Jayson Tatum who gets a 25% kicker and is our Prime Time Player featured above. Teammate Jaylen Brown gets a 60% booster which seems almost unfair as it should put him in the mix as a top ten play. Finally we have Nikola Vucevic who is an interesting pivot away from Deandre Ayton in a matchup with the decimated San Antonio front court.
Final Thoughts
Tonight a lot of things could change depending on LeBron James’ status. Plus it is Saturday, so something wacky always seems to happen on these early spring weekends.
Be sure to tune into Live Before Lock featuring Fast Eddie Fear beginning at 6:30 p.m. EST for all of your up-to-date information and analysis.
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I kind of liked Jason Tatum as well, but there was no mention of Robert Covington defending him. Am I wrong for being concerned with paying maximum price for Jason Tatum with a ++ defender assigned to him?