Zion Williamson + NBA DFS Building Blocks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Tuesday, 3/3/20

Tuesday, March 3 (3/3/20) locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with an eight-game main slate. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Zion Williamson, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram  and more.

We’ve got a NEW FREE article out as well, starting today. Zach Brunner goes through some of the top options on tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s premium BOOM vs BUST Tool. Find it HERE.

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Prime Time Players

Zion Williamson: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $8,200, Yahoo $36; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 18.8%, FanDuel 17.1% Yahoo 13.6%

The Pelicans are playing three games in the next four days and one of those will be in Dallas on Wednesday. We have not yet seen what the organizations plans are with regards to Zion Williamson’s minutes in these situations. If you have some concern for that, then pivoting to teammate Brandon Ingram is a reasonable move and you could even play them together if you wish. Beginning tomorrow, three of the next four games for the Pelicans will be featured on ESPN. Again, tonight and tomorrow are the only two adjacent days with games until next Friday.

Tonight’s game currently has a 247.5 projected point total, which is one of the highest of the season. Over their last 15 games, the Timberwolves have the worst defensive efficiency in the league allowing 117.0 points per 100 possessions. Additionally they are playing at the fastest pace at 105.7 possessions per 48 minutes with the eighth worst rebounding rate.

Over his last seven games, Zion is averaging 1.28 fantasy points per minute with a 32.2% usage rate. In these games he is averaging 31.2 minutes per appearance and if you think that is reasonable it works out to about 40 fantasy points. The pace of the game should provide additional efficiency as well as scoring and rebounding opportunities. Again, the risk is what happens tonight as the Pellies head into a three games in four night stretch.

Good Value

Lonzo Ball: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

DraftKings $7,300, FanDuel $7,400, Yahoo $31; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 19.4%, FanDuel 19.5% Yahoo 19.0%

In a fun twist, here are the numbers for Lonzo Ball from December 1st with and without Zion Williamson. 

While the scoring is down, the rebounds, assists, steals and blocks are all up. Now the minutes are up as well but we have Ball with a 1.05 fantasy point per minute rate in games with Zion and 0.98 without. That is about a 7% increase in fantasy production when incorporated with the extra two minutes per game have reset the baseline for Ball.

Jaylen Brown: Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings $7,100, FanDuel $6,200, Yahoo $27; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 5.1%, FanDuel 15.6% Yahoo 5.0%

Jayson Tatum will be out tonight with an illness and Marcus Smart will be playing, despite dealing with his own sickness. These are the early ownership projections which will be updated throughout the day and I expect the popularity for Jaylen Brown to double. When Tatum is off the court, Brown becomes a 1.25 fantasy point per minute producer. While his rebounding numbers stay about the same, he does see an increase from 22.8% to 27.0% in usage and an 8.2% to 13.5% increase in his assist rate.

Risky Value 

Miles Bridges: Charlotte Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings $5,500, FanDuel $5,700, Yahoo $21; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 27.3%, FanDuel 21.1% Yahoo 24.8%

Be careful with Miles Bridges as his price is really coming up and he is not a particularly high usage player. On the season he is averaging 0.80 fantasy points per minute, but the 20.0% usage rate really does cap his upside. This season about half of his fantasy production comes from scoring which is problematic considering he plays for the slowest paced team in the league.

Yahoo Fantasy NBA DFS Discount Dandies

1. Rudy Gay: SAS  at CHA – $11
2. Alex Len: SAC vs. WAS – $12
3. Trey Lyles: SAS at CHA – $14

NBA DFS Picks: SuperDraft

1. Zion Williamson: New Orleans Hornets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 1.55x multiplier
2. D’Angelo Russell: Minnesota Timerwolves at New Orleans Pelicans – 1.30x multiplier
3. Shake Milton: Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers – 1.75x multiplier

Our standout SuperDraft recommendations for today include Zion Williamson who was detailed above. In the same game we can look to D’Angelo Russell who has a 30% booster on his fantasy production. Since joining the Timberwolves, Russell is averaging 33.9 minutes per game with 23.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.7 assists and 1.9 combined blocks/steals for 42.8 fantasy points per game. On the salary cap sites, Shake Milton in the risky category because of his rising price tag. On SuperDraft his cost to us is a roster slot and his popularity – the 1.75x multiplier goes a long way towards mitigating that risk as compared to his increased price tag on the salary sites.

Final Thoughts

We could have additional news that shakes the slate if Anthony Davis gets another game to rest is various maladies, plus we are waiting on Toronto news about Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka.

Be sure to tune into the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows beginning at 5 p.m. EST for all of your up-to-date information and analysis.

Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page, just click HERE