March is shaping up to be a month chock full of injuries and news to keep up with for our NBA DFS picks. Once again, we have key injuries to guys like Devonte Graham, Josh Richardson, and LaMarcus Aldridge that will change a lot of things. We also have a game with what I believe is our highest NBA DFS combined total of the year between Minnesota and New Orleans. With an eight game slate on tap, there’s a lot to discuss. Follow me on Twitter to make sure you don’t miss any of my content! And now let’s get into all of it with the March 3 Switch and Hedge.
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Two Injury Aided Teams In Charlotte
LaMarcus Aldridge is out for San Antonio while Devonte Graham is unlikely to play for Charlotte in their game tonight. Both sides will see a boost as a result. Terry Rozier looks like one of the stronger plays on the slate at his price with Graham and Malik Monk out. Rozier’s usage takes a jump to 26% while his assist rate is at 33% with both of the other lead guards out. At his price, he seems like a strong candidate to succeed as chalk. Miles Bridges and PJ Washington should also see more usage but feel like less secure plays overall. I may be more inclined to take the value with Cody Martin and, to a lesser extent, Caleb Martin with those guys likely to see a big uptick in minutes.
DeMar DeRozan should see the biggest theoretical boost from Aldridge out but he’s been passive and ineffective with around a 25% usage rate over the last three games. He’ll be highly owned once again at a reasonable price and you probably need some exposure on the chance he gets on track against Charlotte’s 110.2 defensive rating with 47% shooting allowed from the floor. Trey Lyles continues to intrigue me at his price where it is. He’s played 37 and 40 minutes in his last two games as San Antonio’s lone big of consequence. Drew Eubanks could do more if Lyles gets in foul trouble but Lyles is in a good spot worth ownership with that much run against a Charlotte team who gets killed inside. Dejounte Murray seems fine but I’m less inclined for Rudy Gay and Lonnie Walker. If either picks up the start over Eubanks, that could change my stance.
No Jayson Tatum For Boston As Kemba Makes His Expected Return
Jayson Tatum is unlikely to play at home versus Brooklyn while Kemba Walker is expected to make his return. Walker has over a 30% usage rate when Tatum is off the floor but a read on any potential minutes limit would be helpful. He looks good if he can play 30 minutes but, with his knee injury reoccurring, there is some risk they bring him back more slowly. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward will see modest upticks in usage at prices that aren’t the best. I don’t mind either with Tatum’s incredibly ball dominance lately with over a 30% usage rate. I’d have a harder time to pay the elevated price for Marcus Smart with Kemba’s return likely to cut into his more ball dominant role of late.
Brooklyn’s side doesn’t look great on paper but the low ownership is at least a little appealing. Caris LeVert has struggled in his last few games after a hot run at low ownership before that. His price is back down and I wouldn’t mind a stab his way with him putting up over a 31% usage rate since Kyrie Irving went out again. Spencer Dinwiddie has been the hotter player lately with over 49 FP in his last two games. He looks better but he’ll be much higher owned than LeVert. Jarrett Allen looks okay for his price but everything else here seems mediocre at best.
A Monster Total For Minnesota-New Orleans
The Wolves have been one of the fastest paced teams in the league since their trade deadline moves. They now have one of the highest combined totals of the year with 247.5 points expected in their game at New Orleans. D’Angelo Russell is at a lofty price for the matchup but he’s done a good job in his role for Minnesota. I wouldn’t mind some NBA DFS exposure but he can sink a lineup at that high of a price tag. Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez look more reasonably priced with less ball dominant roles. Beasley’s usage has come down after he gunned to start his T’wolves career. Juan’s recent double digit rebounding in his last two games is encouraging but his NBA DFS price seems less appealing than Russell, Beasley, Naz Reid, and possibly even James Johnson.
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New Orleans’ side feels more secure. Brandon Ingram has at least 18 shots in his last four games, in line with his season average. He had a poor 24 FP in 39 minutes last game against the Lakers as he shot 5-for-23. Minnesota has a far lower likelihood of being able to stop that. Same for Zion Williamson who’ll be highly owned but in a matchup where no one should be able to stop what he does. Lonzo Ball and Jrue Holiday also look fine, though I’d be less inclined to play both in the same lineup. Lonzo had 50 FP in that last game versus the Lakers as Jrue struggled and it remains unlikely that both can spike a meaningful upside together with this Pelicans lineup now mostly fully stocked. Derrick Favors looks like decent semi-value while Josh Hart should see decently secure minutes thanks to JJ Redick’s absence. I could get any of these guys or even a Nicolo Melli in a lineup and not be mad thanks to this high-paced matchup versus Minnesota’s 110 defensive rating.
Sacramento Gets A Nice NBA DFS Situation At Home Versus Washington
Washington’s matchup may go more overlooked than usual with some of the high totals on the slate but it’s a good spot for the kings. De’Aaron Fox is priced up for the opportunity but is probable with his recently resurfaced abdominal issues. He’s the first guy to look at but I don’t view him as a must-have. Everyone else here looks okay but not spectacular. Bogdan Bogdanovic hasn’t spiked a meaningful upside too often with Fox in the mix. Buddy Hield is hard to project for more than 24 or 25 minutes with his bench role. Nemanja Bjelica and Harry Giles have a higher potential for truncated run with Alex Len and Kent Bazemore in the mix. Len’s value pricing may be the most logical option because of it.
Washington’s side remains mostly Bradley Beal or bust for me. He’s had over 61 FP in four out of his last five games. Sacramento doesn’t defend too well and their lower pace is really the only inhibitor. His price is hard to get to much but his 3% projected ownership is appealing for GPPs. I wouldn’t hate a stab at Davis Bertans at his price for tournaments too but the rest of Washington seems mostly a mess. Maybe Thomas Bryant is an option as a value dart throw with his minutes extremely low between 15 and 18 since getting back in the lineup.
Not Much Left For Philly At The Lakers
Tobias Harris and Shake Milton will likely get even more usage thanks to Josh Richardson joining Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid on the sidelines for tonight’s game. Harris’s NBA DFS price is up a ton but his boosts in all categories make him at least a little appealing. Same for Al Horford who jumps to a 30% assist rate with no Embiid and Simmons. Milton’s 54.75 FP day last time out seems harder to expect again with 14-for-20 shooting, including 7-for-9 from deep, versus the Clippers. He’s had over 35 FP in his last three games though and he’ll certainly see less defensive attention than Tobias. Mike Scott is also semi-interesting value after he started the second half last game with Richardson out. He played 17 minutes in that half but was aided by Horford fouling out and being unable to close the game. He and Furkan Korkmaz are fine to sprinkle in for tournaments.
Anthony Davis is questionable again and his absence would make LeBron James more appealing after he put up 75.5 FP last game versus New Orleans. Kyle Kuzma also had 35 minutes as he started for Davis and put up 18 shot attempts. He only had 29.5 FP but the minutes and usage are helpful. Same for Javale McGee whose 24 minutes were the most he’s played since early November. AD’s status is a key to watch today, though he was upgraded to probable as I wrote this. That could make AD the only playable Laker with the other guys’ prices a bit untenable thanks to the accounting for his absence.
Around The Rest Of The NBA DFS Slate
- Oklahoma City is capable of putting up a decent day in what should be a competitive game versus the Clippers. The usual suspects of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chris Paul look good but the lower prices on Danilo Gallinari and Dennis Schroder are perhaps more interesting. Steven Adams could be sneaky with his price on the way down and not much in the way of competent Centers for LA. Paul George’s cheap price also stands out somewhat with his minutes up to 30 last game and an OKC crowd who will likely get after him tonight. Kawhi Leonard’s price also looks fine but definitely less of a steep discount than George’s.
- Denver’s guys can put up big days against Golden State but it’s hard to see how the Warriors hang in this one as a 15 point road underdog. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are at good prices but I don’t know that I trust their high ownership. Marquese Chriss looks like the lone playable Warrior to me on paper, more so if the questionable Kevon Looney
- The injuries to Serge Ibaka and Fred VanVleet are important news items to know for their matchup at Phoenix. If both are out, Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam are much more interesting plays. If both are in, Ibaka and VanVleet would look better to me. I’m not terribly inclined to pay OG Anunoby’s sky-high price tag either way. He’s played 40 minutes in the last two games but still hasn’t cracked 20% usage. He’s likely to plummet back to Earth if Ibaka and VanVleet are in and maybe if they’re out. Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton look fine but appropriately owned on Phoenix’s side.
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