The NBA is back, and with it comes NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Tuesday’s slate.
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NBA Building Blocks: Picks, Values, Studs + Locks | August 4
Value NBA DFS Pick: Malcolm Brogdon
DraftKings $5,400, FanDuel $6,200, Yahoo $26, SuperDraft 1.6x
The pricing across the industry is a bit behind on the return of Brogdon. After missing the Pacers’ first game of the restart, he returned yesterday and looked terrific. Brogdon played 35 minutes, scoring 20 points to go along with seven rebounds and six assists. This was despite reports coming prior to the game that Brogdon was expected to play with a minutes restriction. After the strong performance and healthy workload from the Pacers’ point guard yesterday, I assume he is at 100%.
Now the question becomes what is a fair price for Brogdon? Given his consistent production of around 35 fantasy points this season, the proper price for him is in the $7,000 range. In addition, we have to consider that Domantas Sabonis remains out. With Sabonis off the court, Brogdon sees a 2.6% bump in usage and scores about five more fantasy points per 36 minutes than his average. This is likely the last chance to roster Brogdon at this cheap of a salary.
Stud NBA DFS Pick: Luka Doncic
DraftKings $10,700, FanDuel $11,000, Yahoo $52, SuperDraft N/A
I love that we get to roster Doncic playing against all the teams that passed on him in the draft. After torching the Suns in his last game, he draws the Kings today. Both these teams faded Doncic in the draft and wound up landing Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley instead. While many people call this phenomenon a revenge narrative, I look at this a different way. Bad teams selected worse players than Doncic when he was on the board. Since teams like this make these terrible decisions, they stay bad. For this reason, Doncic beats up teams that are bad because of organizational issues that prevent them from identifying good talent. He should threaten for a triple-double today and is my favorite high-priced player on the slate.
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Fade NBA DFS Pick: Khris Middleton
DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $6,900, Yahoo $32, SuperDraft N/A
When I saw the Bucks playing the Nets on the schedule, I immediately looked up the record for the most lopsided game in NBA history. I found out the Cavaliers beat the Heat by 68 points in 1991. Now I am not saying that the Bucks will beat the Nets that badly, but we can’t ruled it out. Not only is the Nets’ current roster terrible due to players opting out of the bubble, players are resting today. Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen and Joe Harris are all sitting. I am anxiously awaiting books to drop an opening line for this game. It’s nearly impossible to come up with a fair line, although I expect a number around 20 points.
Everything I said above seems to imply an easy matchup. This is because the matchup is about as easy as possible. The problem is the matchup is too easy. There is a strong chance that the Bucks’ starters do not come close to playing normal minutes. While the risk of avoiding a player like Middleton in this matchup is risky, I think the blowout potential presents the bigger risk. Core players on the Bucks could end up only playing around 20 minutes.
