NBA Bubble action is underway, and with it comes NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Friday’s slate.
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NBA DFS Value Pick: Ish Smith
DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $5,300, Yahoo $17, SuperDraft 1.7x
It looks like the Wizards pivoted at point guard. After starting Shabazz Napier in their first game of the restart, Smith started the last couple of games. For the season, Smith averages about 25 fantasy points as the starting point guard, which makes this price seem about right. However, there are other factors worth consideration that make him a value. First off, Bradley Beal is not playing in the bubble. Playing on the court without Beal, Smith figure to see more usage than he did in the regular season. To this point, Smith is sporting a 26.2% usage rating in the bubble compared to a 17% usage rating as a starter in the regular season.
In addition to the uptick in usage, this is a strong matchup for Smith. Looking at the pace stats for these teams, this game looks like it has track meet potential. Of the teams in the bubble, the Pelicans play at the fastest pace and the Wizards play at the fourth-fastest pace. Not only should this mean a ton of scoring, New Orleans is not a strong defense against point guards. Even though Lonzo Ball and Jrue Holiday are both considered strong individual defenders, the Pelicans allow more DraftKings points to point guards than any other team in the league. This includes the bad teams that didn’t make it to bubble play.
NBA DFS Stud Pick: Joel Embiid
DraftKings $10,500, FanDuel $9,800, Yahoo $50, SuperDraft 1.05x
It is always something with the 76ers. During the short time in the bubble, this team grabbed headlines with a starting lineup change, a sideline spat between Embiid and Shake Milton, and now Ben Simmons is injured. I won’t pretend to know what a kneecap subluxation is, but I do know that it will prevent Simmons from playing tonight. I also know there’s a good chance that the Philadelphia training staff doesn’t know what a kneecap subluxation is based on how they handled injuries over the last few years.
For fantasy, the implication of Simmons missing is more touches for Embiid. Without Simmons on the floor, Embiid has a 37.6% usage rate and scored over 60 fantasy points per 36 minutes. To this point the Sixers haven’t shown signs of limiting the workload of their star center. Embiid played over 30 minutes in each of the last three games with a usage rate over 35% in all of these contests. On a slate lacking many star options, Embiid stands out as a player to build around. On FanDuel, he’s actually the only player priced over $8,000, and there is enough value to fit him into lineups fairly easily.
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NBA DFS Fade Pick: Ja Morant
DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $7,700, Yahoo $34, SuperDraft 1.5x
The Grizzlies are fading, and fast. It’s not that they aren’t competing, but they can’t seem to finish games in the bubble. After losing their first four games in Orlando, the Grizzlies lead on the eight seed in the West is down to half of a game. Memphis is fighting off a handful of teams, and the final playoff spot is up for grabs. To make matters worse, Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for the season due to a torn meniscus. Today the situation doesn’t get any easier with a matchup against the Thunder.
If forced to say something positive about Morant’s situation, at least we know he is going to play plenty of minutes due to the Grizzlies’ place in the standings. The issue is that I do not like to make a habit of rostering point guards going up against Chris Paul. Despite his age, Paul is still one of the premier point guard defenders in the NBA. He ranks fourth among all point guards in the league in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, and this is a big reason why the Thunder rank third among all Western Conference teams in defensive efficiency. For fantasy, Oklahoma City allows the third-fewest fantasy points per game as a team. To make his value worse, Morant is priced near his peak salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
