This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 11
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) takes on the Memphis Grizzlies tonight and Kristaps Porzingis will once again be inactive. Doncic has played 25 games without Porzingis this season and has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute. Doncic has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute in the 37 games that he has played with Porzingis. While his per-minute production is slightly higher with Porzingis active, it is reasonable to think that his ceiling is higher without Porzingis because his usage rate increases from 35.6 to 37.2 percent and his rebounding rate increases from 12.3 to 13.4 percent. His assist rate falls from 43.9 percent to 42.5 percent without Porzingis. The Grizzlies offer a pace-up spot for Doncic as they have averaged nearly three more possessions per 48 minutes over the last month than Dallas has.
Stephen Curry ($10,000 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) played 36.9 minutes in Golden State’s win over the Jazz last night and he is likely to play similar minutes tonight against the Suns. Curry has been excellent without Kelly Oubre on the floor this season. While the Suns have been a strong defensive team this season, it is worth noting that they rank 24th in pace over the last month. Curry has played 13 games without Oubre this season and has averaged 1.73 DraftKings points per minute with a 40.2 percent usage rate. In 900 total minutes without Oubre on the floor this season, Curry has produced 1.69 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.1 percent usage rate. He’s predicted to be in line for a lot of usage again, as he’s No. 4 in the Awesemo NBA DFS projections tonight with 56.06 points.
Delon Wright ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) gets to run it back against the Thunder tonight. De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton remain sidelined while Harrison Barnes is doubtful to play. Their absences mean plenty of opportunities and minutes for Wright. He played 32.6 minutes against the Thunder on Sunday but lost several minutes to garbage time. In four games without Fox and Haliburton, Wright has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute and 37 minutes per game. He has a 19.6 percent usage rate, 10.9 percent rebounding rate and 27.6 percent assist rate. Wright leads the Kings with 15.5 potential assists per game over those four games and he has averaged 12.8 rebound chances per game, which is fourth on the team (but the top four are all between 12.8 and 13.5 chances per game). These numbers suggest that his elevated peripherals are likely to continue. Oklahoma City is third in pace over the last month and they have allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions.
Killian Hayes ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) played 38.4 minutes against the Bulls on Sunday and he will have a chance for big minutes again tonight against Minnesota. Cory Joseph, Wayne Ellington, Hamidou Diallo, Dennis Smith Jr. and Rodney McGruder are all out so we know that the Pistons’ backcourt will be short-handed. Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee are also out so there will be plenty of usage and playmaking opportunities available. In addition to the numerous absences, Frank Jackson and Josh Jackson are both questionable. If either or both of them miss this game then there are even more minutes available. Hayes has been productive when given increased opportunities this season, averaging 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.2 percent usage rate and 35.1 percent assist rate in 365 minutes without Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, Grant or Plumlee on the floor this season. The Timberwolves are one of the most favorable matchups in the league as they have allowed the fifth-most points per 100 possessions over the last month while playing at the eighth fastest pace.
Malachi Flynn ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) will get to play without Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby tonight as the Raptors seemingly concede the rest of the season. Flynn has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute and 32.1 minutes per game in 10 total starts this season. Six of those starts have come with Lowry and VanVleet both inactive. In those six starts, Flynn has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute and 33.1 minutes per game. Flynn has a 22.2 percent usage rates and 30.1 percent assist rate in 268 total minutes without Lowry, VanVleet or Siakam on the floor this season and he has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over those minutes despite a terrible 42.1 percent true shooting rate.
Austin Rivers ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has averaged 30.1 minutes per game in three games since P.J. Dozier’s injury. He has an 18.6 percent usage rate and 11.9 percent assist rate. We shouldn’t expect him to continue to produce 1.04 DraftKings points per minute as he has shot unsustainably well, but he is cheap enough on DraftKings that he is a viable value option assuming that he is going to play 30-plus minutes tonight against Charlotte.
Saben Lee ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) could be in line for increased playing time if Josh Jackson and/or Frank Jackson miss tonight’s game. Lee played 32.2 minutes on Sunday, including starting the second half in place of Frank Jackson. We’ve rarely seen Lee play alongside Hayes but the Pistons may not have much of a choice again tonight. For the season, Lee has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with a 17.1 percent usage rate and 33.5 percent assist rate. At his salary, we probably only need him to find about 24 minutes in this matchup to be a strong value (currently the fourth overall value play in Awesemo NBA DFS projections). If both Jacksons are out we could see 30-plus minutes again.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Delon Wright, Malachi Flynn
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luke Doncic, Stephen Curry, Delon Wright, Malachi Flynn
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Shooting Guard
Caris LeVert ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) will once again be playing without Malcolm Brogdon. LeVert has played eight games without Brogdon and with Domantas Sabonis active this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.6 percent usage rate and 26.8 percent assist rate in 34.9 minutes per game. He played about 37 minutes last night and is likely to see similar playing time if tonight’s game is competitive. He has a difficult matchup against the 76ers, but he has a high ceiling despite the matchup.
Devin Booker ($8,200 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) gets a pace-up matchup against the Warriors. Phoenix has been efficiently priced as a team for most of the season, but one spot that we can look to take advantage of their pricing is when they play faster teams in games that are likely to be competitive. The Warriors meet that criteria. This game has a 230 point total and only a five point spread. Booker has averaged 34.9 minutes per game over Phoenix’s last ten games and he is likely to exceed that number if tonight’s game is close. In 63 games played alongside Chris Paul this season, Booker has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.7 percent usage rate and 20.5 percent assist rate. He is essentially a poor man’s Bradley Beal from a DFS standpoint as he is a scoring dependent two-guard who has a relatively low floor for his salary due to a lack of peripherals but who is also capable of pouring in 40 to 50 actual points any given night.
Buddy Hield ($8,200 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is probable for tonight’s excellent matchup against the Thunder. Hield has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and 36.3 minutes per game in the four games he has played without Haliburton and Fox. He only played 28.9 minutes through three quarters of the Kings’ blowout win on Sunday and he has played at least 38 minutes in the competitive games he has played without Haliburton and Fox. His usage rate in those four games is 21 percent, but he has a 10.4 percent rebounding rate and 23.6 percent assist rate. He is third with 13.3 rebound chances per game and second to Wright in potential assists per game.
D’Angelo Russell ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) has started Minnesota’s last three games. In those games, he has played 37 minutes, 26 minutes and 30 minutes in a blowout. The Timberwolves had said that he would continue to play around 30 minutes for the foreseeable future, but it certainly appears as if we can expect him to play several more minutes in competitive games now that he is in the starting lineup. Russell has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in 20 games played alongside Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns this season.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) is a difficult player to be excited about rostering in your lineup, but he is at a price point where he could be a useful final piece. Wiggins has averaged 35.1 minutes per game and 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games played without Oubre and with Curry this season. He could play a couple more minutes than average tonight assuming the game with Phoenix is competitive, which would make him a viable mid-range option.
Gary Trent Jr. ($6,000 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) will need to take on an expanded role for the Raptors tonight and his salary is especially appealing on FanDuel. Trent has played 116 minutes without Lowry, VanVleet or Siakam on the floor since joining Toronto. Over those minutes, he has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.2 percent usage rate. He only has a 7.6 percent rebounding rate and 8.5 percent assist rate so we are reliant on his shot falling, but the huge uptick in usage leads to him being underpriced for DFS tonight. In addition to the increased usage, Trent should see as many minutes as he can handle. He played 36.2 minutes against Memphis on Saturday and the Raptors are more short-handed tonight as they will only have eight or nine players depending on the status of Chris Boucher.
Evan Fournier ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,200 SF FanDuel) has a tough matchup tonight against Miami but he will once again have increased opportunities with Jaylen Brown sidelined. Fournier has at least 10 field goal attempts in each of his last four games and he has shot 67 percent from the field over that span. We shouldn’t expect that level of efficiency to continue, but it does suggest that maybe he isn’t dealing with blurred vision and headaches anymore. In five games without Brown since joining the Celtics, Fournier has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute and 30.9 minutes per game. We can expect more minutes than that tonight, however, as he has played at least 34 minutes in three of his last four games and the game where he didn’t reach 34 minutes was a blowout where he played 29 minutes.
Terence Davis ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) has gotten more expensive but he has taken on a bigger role with Fox and Haliburton sidelined. Davis has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute and 28.2 minutes per game in the four games he has played without Fox and Haliburton since joining Sacramento. He has a 25.1 percent usage rate in those games and has also contributed 4.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game.
Jalen Harris ($3,100 DraftKings/$4,200 PG FanDuel) looks like one of the best point-per-dollar options on DraftKings. Harris played 29.4 minutes on Saturday, including the final 17.5 minutes of the game, and he is likely to benefit from the additional absences of Siakam and Rodney Hood. Harris has only played 83 minutes this season, mostly in garbage time, but he has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. Our Awesemo NBA DFS projections like Harris in terms of value, as he’s the No. 3 value play on the slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Caris LeVert, D’Angelo Russell, Gary Trent, Evan Fournier, Jalen Harris
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Caris LeVert, Devin Booker, Buddy Hield, D’Angelo Russell, Gary Trent, Yuta Watanabe
Small Forward
Kevin Durant ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel) played 40.6 minutes against Denver in his last game and has now played at least 36 minutes in five straight games and at least 40 minutes in three of those games. Durant has played a total of 17 games without Harden and with Kyrie Irving this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.8 percent usage rate and 25.6 percent assist rate. It will be difficult to prioritize Durant over other pay-up options like Stephen Curry, but he is certainly worth a look given his expected playing time tonight against the Bulls.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) is available at one of the cheapest price points that we have seen him at recently. Leonard played 36 minutes against the Knicks on Sunday, which marks the most minutes that he has played since returning from injury four games ago. It also suggests that we can expect Leonard not to be limited going forward. He has played a total of 41 games with Paul George active this season and has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and 34.1 minutes per game in those games. He has a favorable matchup tonight against a depleted Toronto squad.
Michael Porter Jr. ($8,500 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) is expensive on DraftKings but stands out as a top small forward value on FanDuel. Porter has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in 20 games without Jamal Murray this season and he has averaged 35.2 minutes per game in those games. He offers an excellent combination of median projection and upside at his FanDuel price point.
Saddiq Bey ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in 1,207 minutes without Griffin, Rose, Grant or Plumlee on the floor this season. While that isn’t great per-minute production for his salary, he played a little over 40 minutes in his last game and is likely to play 36-plus minutes again tonight as the Pistons are short-handed once again. If Frank Jackson and Josh Jackson are out tonight we can add a couple more minutes onto Bey’s projection as well.
Kyle Anderson ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) could see a bump in usage and rebounding with Jaren Jackson Jr. out and Jonas Valanciunas doubtful tonight against the Mavericks. Anderson has played eight games alongside Ja Morant and without Valanciunas this season. He has a 19.3 percent usage rate and 13 percent rebounding rate in those games compared to an 18.2 percent usage rate and 10.9 percent rebounding rate in his games with Morant and Valanciunas both active. Anderson has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute overall this season so, even if we assume his production doesn’t increase, he would be a viable option assuming that he plays 30-plus minutes. It is likely that he gets increased opportunities, however, so his ceiling is higher than normal.
Maurice Harkless ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) only played 25.8 minutes against Oklahoma City last game but he dealt with foul trouble in the third quarter and then lost minutes to garbage time. He played about 16.5 first half minutes, which suggests that we can expect around 32 minutes from Harkless tonight if the game is competitive. Harkless has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute and 31.1 minutes per game in four games without Fox, Haliburton or Barnes this season.
DeAndre’ Bembry ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,600 SG FanDuel) played 19.5 minutes off the bench in his last game and is likely to see more minutes tonight. Bembry is a volatile option as Nick Nurse hasn’t necessarily given him a lot of minutes even when Toronto has been short-handed at times this season, but he is capable of taking on extra ball-handling responsibilities behind Flynn. Bembry has averaged 0.69 DraftKings points per minute in 314 minutes without Siakam, Lowry or VanVleet on the floor this season.
Stanley Johnson ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is a likely candidate to replace Siakam in Toronto’s starting lineup tonight. Johnson has started nine games this season and has averaged 25.6 minutes per game and 0.51 DraftKings points per minute. None of those starts came without all three of Siakam, VanVleet and Lowry, however, so we can expect more minutes and more production from Johnson. He has played 291 minutes without that trio on the floor this season and has produced 0.76 DraftKings points per minute. I expect that we get 30-plus minutes from Johnson tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson, Maurice Harkless, Stanley Johnson
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Michael Porter, Saddiq Bey, Kyle Anderson, Stanley Johnson
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) is difficult to trust as he has played about 30 minutes in each of his last three games and the Bucks aren’t playing for much at this point in the season. Each of those three games had extenuating circumstances, however, as two were relatively non-competitive and he fouled out of the third. I think it is likely that we see shorter rotations for Antetokounmpo than we did earlier in the season, but there is still a chance he plays 35-plus minutes if tonight’s game is competitive. He has averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute this season, so the upside is still there even though there is risk. He also has a favorable matchup against Orlando who has the third worst defensive rating over the last month and has been one of the worst rebounding teams since trading Nikola Vucevic.
Domantas Sabonis ($10,400 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) produced another monster game last night without Brogdon. Brogdon is out again tonight. Sabonis has averaged 1.68 DraftKings points per minute and 38.1 minutes per game in seven games without Brogdon and Myles Turner and alongside LeVert this season. He has a tough matchup against the Sixers, but stands out as one of tonight’s top pay-up options.
Jayson Tatum ($9,700 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) is another expensive power forward who is playing without a main piece of his team’s offense. Tatum has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.3 percent usage rate and 37.3 minutes per game in nine games without Brown and with Kemba Walker this season. While the matchup against the Heat is a below average matchup, it is likely to be a competitive game so we are likely to see maximum minutes from Tatum.
Julius Randle ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) also has a tough matchup as the Knicks face the Lakers. Randle is relatively inexpensive compared to his salary for most of the season, however, and he has played the second-most minutes per game in the NBA over the last month (38.1). Randle has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 31 games with Rose active this season.
Tobias Harris ($7,200 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) gets one of the NBA’s most favorable matchups as he faces the Indiana Pacers. Indiana leads the league in pace over the last month and they rank 18th in defensive rating. Harris has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 35 games played with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid this season. Embiid is questionable tonight, and if he sits, Harris would project even better as he has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 15 games played alongside Simmons without Embiid this season.
Marvin Bagley ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has only played 21 and 19 minutes in his last two games. One of those games was because of a blowout but he simply didn’t play in the fourth quarter of the other game. Bagley has a favorable matchup against Oklahoma City tonight, giving him a strong bounce-back spot. Bagley has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in six games without Fox this season.
Yuta Watanabe ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,500 SG FanDuel) started Toronto’s last game and played 24.6 minutes. It is likely that he plays 30-plus minutes tonight with Toronto missing even more players. Watanabe has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute without Lowry, VanVleet or Siakam on the floor this season and he projects as one of tonight’s best point-per-dollar values.
Brandon Clarke ($3,400 DraftKings/$4500 FanDuel) is another of tonight’s top point-per-dollar values as he should benefit if Valanciunas (doubtful) sits out. Clarke has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in 809 minutes without Valanciunas or Jackson on the floor this season and he has averaged 26.4 minutes per game in six games played without either player.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis, Tobias Harris, Yuta Watanabe, Brandon Clarke
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis, Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman
Center
Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) is the top pay-up option at center most times that he plays and tonight is no different. Jokic has averaged 1.71 DraftKings points per minute and 33.7 minutes per game in 20 games played without Murray this season. He has a 31.6 percent usage rate and 43.9 percent assist rate over those games. He played 36.9 minutes in a competitive game against Brooklyn last time out so, while we normally only get about 34 or 35 minutes from him, there is the potential for more if the game goes down to the wire.
Joel Embiid ($10,100 DraftKings/$9,700 DraftKings) is questionable tonight but he has an excellent matchup against the Pacers if he is able to play. Embiid is a risky option even if he plays because the Sixers essentially have the top seed in the East locked up. Embiid only played 22.9 minutes against Detroit in his last game, including just 13 first half minutes. While Embiid has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute this season and is in a great matchup, he is unlikely to be the top pay-up option tonight if he only plays around 26 minutes. There is still the potential for him to play more, however, as he has suggested that he wants to play his full minutes and we haven’t gotten a definitive statement from Doc Rivers saying that he won’t. The risk is likely to lower Embiid’s ownership, which makes him a strong tournament target if he is able to play.
Richaun Holmes ($6,900 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) played 32.7 minutes in Sacramento’s last competitive game before losing minutes to garbage time against the Thunder last game. If tonight’s game is competitive, we are likely to see another 30-32 minutes from Holmes. He has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season and has the potential to produce at a much higher rate tonight against Oklahoma City.
Isaiah Stewart ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,200 PF FanDuel) has become more expensive since Plumlee sits out so frequently and he will have his hands full on the defensive end with Karl-Anthony Towns. He has a high ceiling, however, as the Timberwolves play at a fast pace and are one of the weakest defenses in the league. Stewart has started 13 games this season and has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 29 minutes per game.
Xavier Tillman ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,600 PF FanDuel) is another one of the top values on tonight’s slate. He is likely to start in place of Valanciunas. Tillman has started six games with Valanciunas and Jackson inactive and Clarke active this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute and 26.8 minutes per game. Tillman is likely to be one of the highest-owned players on tonight’s slate assuming he is in the starting lineup but it is for good reason. He’s the No. 1 value in the Awesemo NBA DFS projections.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Xavier Tillman
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Richaun Holmes
Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA DFS Strategy Show on our YouTube Channel and our DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets for more help making your NBA DFS picks today.
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