NBA DFS Picks, Fades & Booms Today: Pass on Giannis Antetokounmpo

Arguably the best day of the NBA season is their Christmas Day slate which features 10 of the best teams in the league. There are so many great players to choose from and pricing is reasonable across the industry. Expect many casuals to play this popular slate. With the games so spread out, make sure to adjust use late swap to your advantage.

There is going to be news to follow throughout the day so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features two ‘boom’ candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Luka Doncic: $12,500 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel

28.% DraftKings Boom/31.1% FanDuel Boom

Luka Doncic is coming off of his fourth game this season where he scored over 80 DraftKings points. This was the first of the four where he didn’t have a triple-double. Instead, Doncic finished with 50 points, 10 assists, and eight rebounds as he shot 17 of 30 from the field while making six 3-pointers. He has the highest boom percentage among all of the great pay-up options on both sites. Doncic is averaging career-high’s in both points and usage rate per game this season, but ranks second in the league for both categories.

The Mavericks have the highest implied total on the slate at 119 points. Playing against the Lakers defense without Anthony Davis puts Doncic in a great spot for a ceiling game. In seven games without Davis this season, the Lakers defensive rating goes from 112.3 to 122.7, while they are allowing 118.7 points per game. Doncic is the most expensive player on DraftKings and the third-most on FanDuel, but has the highest fantasy score in our Stokastic projections for both sites. He is the best pay-up option on this Christmas Day slate.

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NBA DFS Play: Thomas Bryant: $5,600 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel

48.1% DraftKings Boom/31.9% FanDuel Boom

The Los Angeles Lakers are the team to target when looking for value, especially on DraftKings today. They have the top three and six of the top 10 players in terms of boom percentage on DraftKings. Anthony Davis remains out, while Thomas Bryant was helped to the locker room late in the game on Friday night. If Bryant plays, he is the best value on the slate according to our Stokastic projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, if he is unable to play, get exposure to Wenyen Gabriel who is only $3,200 on DraftKings.

The Lakers are the biggest underdogs on this Christmas slate as they have lost three-straight and have one of the worst records in the league at 13-19. In the six games that Bryant has started this season, he is averaging 13.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 29.6 DraftKings points per game. During that time, he has two double-doubles and has a great opportunity to add another double-double tonight. The Mavericks rank dead last in rebounding percentage this season. Make sure Bryant is in the starting lineup, but Bryant looks awesome in this spot.

NBA DFS Fade: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,400 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel

56.0% DraftKings Bust/55.5% FanDuel Bust

The Milwaukee Bucks continue their road trip against the Boston Celtics tonight as 4.5-point underdogs. The Bucks are one of three teams with under a 110 implied team total as the Celtics rank seventh in defensive rating this season. This game is arguably the best on the slate as it features not only the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, but the two best teams in the league. Khris Middleton‘s status remains unknown, but even if he sits, getting exposure to Giannis Antetokounmpo at $12,000 on FanDuel and $12,400 on DraftKings is a tough sell.

Giannis has one of the highest bust percentages on the slate among the pay-up options. Robert Williams III is finally healthy, which makes their interior defense significantly better. These two teams are very similar where they rely on their defense, but have superstars on offense to carry the heavy lifting. In our Stokastic projections, Giannis has by far the worst value of every player who is priced over $7,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There is no need to pay this price tag for Giannis with so many other top tier options who are in much better matchups.