The sports calendar spoiled us this Christmas weekend. There’s a full slate of NFL on Saturday, a college football game at night, the normal NBA slate on Christmas Day and a few college basketball games sprinkled in as well. Now is the time to find best bets in the market.
As always, Stokastic’s data, tools and staff have you covered every step of the way.
To celebrate the holiday season, Stokastic and our sports betting platform, OddsShopper, partnered with BetMGM for an exclusive offer. Deposit just $10 (and up to $1000) and instantly get a $25 free bet. In addition to the free bet, your first cash wager will be risk-free, meaning if it loses you’ll be reimbursed with free bets up to $1000. Click here to claim the offer.
To help you decide the best way to use that free bet and all of the other tools Stokastic offers, we’re looking at the best 25 values of the betting and DFS weekend.
Best Christmas Weekend Picks
NBA Player Props
De’Anthony Melton Over 1.5 Steals (DraftKings)
This plus-money play is available at DraftKings and at the current price is the third-most profitable play on NBA Bet Pro.Â
Ja Morant Over 1.5 Threes (BetMGM)
Morant averages exactly 1.5 made threes in December, but has gone over this number five times in his last eight games. NBA Bet Pro gives this a 7 percent positive expected value.
Christian Wood Under 1.5 Blocks (FanDuel)
The juice is a little heavier on this prop at -170, but NBA Bet Pro projects this to win 69 percent of the time with a 10 percent expected ROI.
Jericho Sims Under 2.5 Points (BetMGM)
A win is a win, right? Sims is putting up 2.6 points per game in December, with a high if eight points. But in five of the 10 games he’s played, he’s taken one shot or fewer. With a tight spread in the game, the blowout potential is less which means fewer opportunities. This is NBA Bet Pro’s most profitable play of the day.
NBA DFS Picks
Thomas Bryant ($5,600, Lakers)
Bryant is the top value of the day with 5.61 points per dollar on DraftKings. He’s double the value of anyone else on the board.
Tim Hardaway Jr ($5,300, Mavericks)
Hardaway Jr. is the best value for shooting guards according to our NBA projections.Â
Luka Doncic ($12,500, Mavericks)
Is Doncic worth the price? According to our projections, he is. He’s the best value at point guard and ownership is under 25 percent.
NBA Prize Picks
Dillon Brooks Over 3 Rebounds
Our best value of the day on our PrizePicks tool, Brooks is projected to go over this number 75 percent of the time.
Draymond Green Over 6 ReboundsÂ
Green is projected to go over this number 68 percent of the time, as he’s expected to see an uptick in minutes on Christmas.
NFL Player Props
Stefon Diggs Under 5.5 receptions (FanDuel)
Our OddsShopper tool projects this as a winner 60 percent of the time. Moreover, with juice of -125, this lines up with a 9 percent xROI. The Bills are big favorites in a frigid Chicago atmosphere against the Bears.
Royce Freeman Over 27.5 rushing yards (FanDuel)
No Dameon Pierce means opportunities are open in the Texas backfield. OddsShopper’s tool expects Freeman to clear this number 57 percent of the time for an xROI of 9 percent. The Texans are 3-point underdogs against the Tennessee Titans.
Cole Kmet Under 29.5 receiving yards (BetMGM)
The Bears host the Bills and OddsShopper is going back to an under. This prop is projected to win 58 percent of the time with a 9 percent xROI.
Parris Campbell Under 36.5 receiving yards (BetMGM)
The Colts play the Chargers on Monday, and OddsShopper doesn’t expect Campbell to take off with new quarterback Nick Foles. Another play with 9 percent xROI and a expected win rate of 56 percent.
Geno Smith Over 15.5 rushing yards (DraftKings)
OddsShopper contributor Justin Martin loves this spot for the Seahawks quarterback. He explains his pick in great detail here.
NFL Sides & Totals
Lions -2.5 vs. PanthersÂ
Dave ‘Loughy’ Loughran runs through his thoughts on each game, and his favorite play of the week is on Detroit. He tells you why in full depth here.
Ravens -6.5 vs. Falcons
Ben Rasa is riding with Tyler Huntley against rookie Desmond Ridder. The rushing game should be too much for Atlanta to stop. His full explanation is here.
Broncos -3 vs. Rams
Isaiah Sirois gave this Sunday play out early in our Discord. He finds closing line value all the time, which is one of the benefits of Insider Access.
NFL DFS Advice
Daniel Jones ($5,600, DraftKings)
The Giants quarterback is our top value at the position, including a positive leverage score.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800, DraftKings)
McCaffrey projects as the highest-owned running back on the main DraftKings slate, but he might be worth it. Our projections have him as the best value on the board.
Terrace Marshall Jr ($3,600, DraftKings)
The Carolina Panthers receiver is a cheap option to consider and has the best leverage score at the position.
Mark Andrews ($5,500, DraftKings)
Andrews isn’t the best value at the tight-end position today, but he does have the best leverage score.
Bills D/ST ($4,000, DraftKings)
Buffalo’s defense has the highest point projection for the position according to our data.
Justin Fields Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
A tough environment, virtually no offensive weapons and a solid Bills defense hints at the under. Our NHA free projections have Fields going under this number over 80 percent of the time.
Deshaun Watson Under 197.5 Passing Yards
With severe weather expected, Watson’s projection is almost 50 yards below this number. Our model makes this under a winner over 80 percent of the time.
If you like these plays, No House Advantage is currently offering a $100 deposit match for first-time players.Â
Saturday College Football
San Diego State 1H Moneyline vs. Middle Tennessee State
Isaiah Sirois is paying up on the moneyline Saturday night, but he explains why it’s a wise investment here.
These plays will take us through Christmas Eve, but we’ve got more winners, picks and DFS advice to give away on Sunday. Be sure to check back for prop bets and DFS insight on Sunday. Don’t forget to take advantage of this exclusive BetMGM offer for a free $25 bet.
