NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

If you missed it, last night was a dominant night for the Awesemo NBA DFS crew. Between subscribers and staff, the site rampaged up the standings in the largest GPPs on both sites, taking the top prize on each as well as spots 1-3 on FanDuel. If you haven’t joined up yet, I’m not sure what better sign you’re waiting for than that; there are no comets coming. Monday’s eight-game NBA DFS slate has already become a seven-game affair thanks to COVID-19 contact tracing protocols. The Pelicans – Mavericks game is off the board, wiping out several key stars from the slate that was already light on pay-up options. There are still a number of things up in the air, with multiple teams dealing with the virus as well as our standard NBA DFS chaos. The 76ers are a key one to watch as we move toward lock. The team is without more than half of their roster, though star Joel Embiid is expected to play. If two more players end up scratching, we could lose that game as well. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change. It is imperative that you follow along with our NewsGod’s Live Blog for the latest news and lineup information for DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA, Yahoo and SuperDraft NBA DFS picks.

I mean this sincerely: Four new pieces of news broke in the time it took to write that paragraph, and I type quickly. Nobody has your back like the NewsGod.

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders | Jan. 11

Victor Oladipo – Indiana Pacers

DraftKings – $6,900 – SG/SF/ FanDuel – $7,000 – SG

Oladipo has had a productive start to the season, posting per-minute fantasy averages around the 1.10-point mark on both sites. This represents a big step up from Oladipo’s initial return to action from last year, where he was pulling down only around 0.90 fantasy points per minute. The sites have yet to fully adjust to the upside in Oladipo, as he is slightly underpriced on both. More to the point, he is going dramatically undervalued by the NBA DFS public at this stage of the afternoon. Oladipo can be a frustrating player to roster, but he can score fantasy points without having to rely on real-life scoring given his six rebounds and 1.4 stocks.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Oladipo comes in at $6,900 and plays the shooting guard and small forward position, allowing extreme flexibility all over your roster. His 30.3% optimal lineup appearance rate stands fourth overall on the site, and he has a whopping 37.2% boom score. Oladipo is far too unpopular for these marks, putting up a 6.4 leverage score. This is a spot to target with DraftKings lineups tonight.

Flipping to the other site, the outlook for Oladipo only improves. Despite costing $100 more in FanDuel NBA contests, he is still carrying a 34.4% boom score. His 35.1% optimal-lineup rate checks in third on the slate, while his 9.3 leverage score is tops on the board by a fair margin. Oladipo should be your second click in cash games (after fellow guard Tyrese Maxey) and makes a fantastic GPP play as well.

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JaVale McGee – Cleveland Cavaliers

DraftKings – $3,800 – C / FanDuel – $4,500 – PF

McGee is not a star-caliber NBA player by any means. He is barely a role player at this point in his career. What he can do, however, is rack up fantasy points in short order when he is on the court. With a rate of 1.27 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel — 1.24 on DraftKings — when the price drops and the minutes are there, McGee becomes a consideration.

The Cavaliers backup big man is listed at just $3,800 at the center position on DraftKings. He pulls down an optimal-lineup rate of 8.5% alongside a strong 7.2 leverage score. His boom rate of 25.6% is exactly what we want to see on a player like this. We should feel safe that we won’t be too hurt by the play if McGee fails to return a ceiling score, but we’re inexpensively buying both leverage and upside.

On FanDuel the $4,500 power forward has nearly double the optimal-lineup rate as on the other site at 16.4%, eighth overall on the site and second at the power forward position behind Domantas Sabonis, who is more than double the price. McGee has a 28% boom score and an 8.0 leverage mark. He is firmly in play for me on the blue site tonight as well.

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Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers’ rotation is currently in shambles. A full 11 players were listed on the injury report as the team reels in the wake of a COVID-19 exposure. There are also several lingering injuries to key players outside of the COVID protocol. Embiid is expected to be available — he traveled to Atlanta with the team. Ben Simmons, however, remained in Philadelphia, where he is still dealing with lingering effects of a knee injury. Both stars missed Saturday’s game, forcing the Sixers to go with a seven-man rotation comprised largely of unfamiliar names.

If Embiid does play through his back tightness, it would be a huge boost to the 76ers, and he would obviously be the primary focus for the team on both sides of the floor for real-life basketball. For NBA DFS purposes, he looks like a consideration on both sites. Embiid is the dominant center available, and he is priced under $10,000 on both sites, leading to quality boom scores. On FanDuel Embiid checks in with a 33.9% boom rate and appears in 21.3% of optimal lineups, though he is drawing a large share of ownership at -8.8 leverage. With a few other comparable options drawing less attention, Embiid is a player I might look to roster at levels below the field in FanDuel NBA contests. Andre Drummond looks like a particularly appealing pivot for this salary. There are also pay-down options.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Embiid compares favorably with Drummond as well. The ownership is once again the primary difference. Embiid draws a -10.10 leverage score, while Drummond checks in at a 6.4 for $600 less in salary. With high-end boom scores and optimal-lineup rates over 20%, alongside an absurd amount of slate-wide value, there could be an argument to be made for rostering both expensive centers where you can do it. That makes the rest of the lineup construction very specific, however, and your salary spend will be critical. Forced to decide between the two, I would pass on Embiid and take the savings and better situation with Drummond.

Veteran guard Danny Green should be another player who takes a key role for the Sixers again tonight. Green cleared the COVID-19 protocol in time to play in Saturday’s seven man game. He saw 36.2 minutes of run in that game, and we should expect similar tonight, with upside for more if his shot is falling. Green has posted fantasy scoring rates of 0.77 per minute so far this season, in line with his previous production. At just $4,800 on FanDuel, he checks in with a 33.7% boom score and a 35.3% optimal lineup appearance rate at the small forward position. His 4.0 leverage score is the strongest on the team. Green appears to be the one 76ers player that the NBA DFS community does not want to roster, which makes him one of the night’s more interesting NBA DFS picks to me.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Green plays both shooting guard and small forward and costs just $4,700. He has one of the site’s highest boom scores on the night at 43.6% while appearing in 30.7% of optimal lineups in our simulations. The public is more on Green on this site — his leverage score is at just 0.5 — but it is still on the positive side. This is a spot where I would look to get ahead of a score that was slightly in the negative anyway.

Joining Green in the 76ers starting lineup should be Maxey, the name you’ve probably heard everywhere in the NBA DFS industry. Maxey is going to be explosively popular on both sites. On Saturday he played 43.7 of the possible 48 minutes, featuring as the team’s only primary ball handler. Maxey should fill the same role tonight and is priced to $5,200 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings. His point guard eligibility on the latter site is useful; I always like to grab what looks like a cheap guaranteed production at one of the positions that can somewhat control its own rates. Maxey is pulling the site’s worst leverage score by a mile, however, at -16.8. His 42.3% optimal lineup appearance rate makes this one a close call, and I wouldn’t have issues just going with the field and eating the chalk on this play.

Maxey appears in the optimal lineup in more than half of our FanDuel NBA simulations at 53.3%. His higher price barely limits anything on his boom score, which stands at a robust 58.9%, but his leverage checks in at a slate-worst -18.0. This is again a tricky spot. Any time a player is going to be rostered in around three quarters of all lineups, we have to consider if he is worth a fade. Shooting guard is a position that has several of the slate’s remaining star plays, and we should have a lot of salary for our NBA DFS picks tonight. Namely Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and C.J. McCollum, not to mention Oladipo, are all players I want to get to above the field tonight. With Maxey putting a full block on a valuable spot and limited opportunities to spend salary in other roster positions, I am more inclined to find other options on FanDuel. To clarify, I will certainly have some Maxey and am not endorsing a full fade. After process runs, or with additional news, this could change dramatically, and I might leverage up on the 70% ownership by pushing into the 90s. I don’t see things breaking in that direction at this point in the afternoon, however.

Other Sixers in consideration are more at the value-play level. The primary player I am interested in at that point would be Isaiah Joe, a power forward on FanDuel and a shooting guard on DraftKings — because that makes sense — who costs just $3,900 and $4,100, respectively. Joe is another player who saw significant run, playing a full 44 minutes on Saturday. For the money, he is a logical candidate to fill a value plug-in for us, not much more. On FanDuel he appears in 14.1% of optimal lineups and carries an 11.9% boom score with positive leverage at 3.7. On DraftKings he costs slightly more and is optimal slightly less, at just 8.1% against a -0.4 leverage score. This renders him more fine than interesting.

Power forward Mike Scott is a player who I am grudgingly giving attention on the blue site as well. While I hope he doesn’t find his way into many of my lineups, we have to consider a minimum-priced player who appears in 13.5% of optimal FanDuel NBA lineups with a 19.2% boom score. The concern is his -11.6 leverage, which suggests to me he is over-owned and possibly more detrimental than his salary is useful. On DraftKings you can duck the Scott bullet with more ease; he carries just a 3.2% optimal lineup appearance rate and a -3.5 leverage score.

Of course, all of this is pending any additional news that may emerge before lock. Stay tuned, check in with NewsGod and watch all the shows later today for all the latest info for your NBA DFS picks.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.