NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

The rest of Sunday features two playoff football games and a bizarre-looking NBA DFS slate; it should be the best part of a great sports weekend. With all the moving parts, we’re a bit short on time heading into an early lock, so we’re going to fire through a few pieces of player analysis without wasting too much time. This column is based on my favorite piece of content, the boom/bust tool, which gives us a fantastic dashboard on which to view the slate at a macro and micro level. For the Sunday slate, we have a six-game slate in both DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change. It is imperative that you follow along with our NewsGod’s Live Blog for the latest news and lineup information for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft NBA DFS picks.

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders | Jan. 10

Pascal Siakam – Toronto Raptors

DraftKings – $7,800 – PF / FanDuel – $8,400 – PF

Pascal Siakam appears underpriced on both sites tonight. The Raptors forward comes in with 1.09 FanDuel points per minute this season, down from last year’s 1.14. We have him pegged for a 35-minute projection tonight. With 25% usage in the Toronto offense, there is nothing overly different from Siakam’s role in previous seasons. We have enough history with Siakam to reliably say he should likely return to those levels of production, and for just $8,400, I’m happy to get a bit ahead of him at just 19% ownership on a short slate. Siakam carries a 25.4% optimal-lineup rate on the blue site, with a strong 5.9 leverage score.

He looks as high quality but more owned on DraftKings. The price is what is pushing his popularity; Siakam costs just $7,800 at the power forward spot. With an optimal lineup appearance rate of 22.8% that ranks third overall on the DraftKings NBA slate, Siakam is good chalk and one of my favorite plays on the board. His leverage score is about even, and I don’t think it will be difficult to get ahead of his 22% ownership projection.

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Dejounte Murray – San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings – $6,800 – PG / FanDuel – $6,600 – PG

Another player whose price jumps off the page as we begin to scan for value, Spurs point guard Dejounte Murray seems to be underappreciated for his 1.10 FanDuel and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. The numbers are right in line with what Murray has produced previously. This seems like a simple misprice given the opportunity with Derrick White hurt and DeMar DeRozan leaving the team’s road trip to attend to a family emergency.

Murray is getting the lion’s share of the minutes handling the ball for the Spurs. His optimal lineup appearance rate of 32.1% on DraftKings to go with a 48% boom score leads the slate. The ownership is there on Murray. He is carrying a slightly negative leverage score, but his price for the potential of a ceiling score cannot be ignored. I would be with the field or ahead on Murray on DraftKings.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Murray is priced at just $6,600, and his 63% boom score is now first following Miami – Boston getting postponed. Murray has a very strong raw point projection that has drawn the attention of the public, but not in a way that significantly outpaces his 33.1% optimal-lineup rate on the site. Murray is another chalky player that I will push above the field on FanDuel tonight.

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UPDATE: Heat – Celtics has been postponed. Instead, look to:

Rudy Gay & D’Angelo Russell on FanDuel

Chris Boucher & Darius Bazley on DraftKings

Tyler Herro – Miami Heat

~~DraftKings – $6,400 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $5,200 – SG~~

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro has seemed a bit quiet to start the season, though his fantasy point per minute numbers are at or slightly above the same marks he produced last season, at 0.85. Herro is a volume shooter who can get hot on any given night, so when he is under-owned at a great price, it makes sense to scoop up the opportunity. This is the case on FanDuel tonight. Herro is priced down significantly for his talent and by comparison to the other site. The 25.9% optimal lineup appearance rate is the slate’s third highest, second at the shooting guard position to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Herro’s 37.8% boom score outstrips SGA, however, and he comes in at a $2,400 discount. Both guards look like cash building blocks, where Herro is the GPP play on which I would leverage up. His 4.3 leverage score on FanDuel has plenty of appeal.

On DraftKings, Herro adds point guard eligibility, but picks up salary and loses his appeal in terms of optimal lineup appearance rate with an 8.6% and boom score at 11.4%. Without his ownership at just 5.6% he does pull a positive leverage score, but the ownership is low because the probability of Herro being a necessity on DraftKings tonight is reduced. He is fine as a mix and match on that site, but not someone to go over the top for.

Marcus Smart – Boston Celtics

~~DraftKings – $7,200 – PG / FanDuel – $6,300 – SG~~

Marcus Smart is the key player left in the Boston Celtics lineup as COVID-19 exposure protocols have sidelined most other players whose names we know. That’s only a slight exaggeration. With a 40 minute projection and in an all-you-can-eat situation, Smart is glimmering in terms of his boom score. The 72.7% mark is one of the highest in recent memory for the FanDuel NBA boom/bust tool. The issue is that the public will be on Smart at a rate far in excess of his current 13.3% optimal lineup appearance rate, creating a -7.7 leverage score. We have several other shooting guards that are providing positive leverage at similar levels of median production and with reasonably projectable upside. Smart is the most likely to his a ceiling score based on the sheer mass of the opportunity tonight, but he may not be the best play.

On DraftKings, Smart pulls in with a 44.6% boom score on his higher salary. He is a point guard on the site, which changes our positional values somewhat, but Smart still comes in at just a 4.5% optimal lineup appearance rate on DraftKings. His ownerhsip is basically in-line with expectation at just 5.2% on the site, given his higher price. The opportunity is there on the surface, but when we scrape away the grime it looks like there might be some fool’s gold in the Smart play tonight, and there are numerous other paths toward more optimal constructions on both sites.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.