The NBA playoffs are underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Switch and Hedge article.
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NBA DFS Switch And Hedge | Aug. 25
How To Handle Kristaps Porzingis
For NBA DFS, the Porzingis situation is extremely annoying. Considered a game-time decision, we likely will not know whether he is playing or not until right before tip. If last game is any indication, there is a chance we won’t even know his status until after the game locks. Apparently, the Mavericks knew that Porzingis wouldn’t play last game well in advance but wanted to keep the information under wraps until right before the game started. This is why we didn’t know he was scratched until after lock on Sunday. I guess Dallas felt they had a competitive advantage by not giving the Clippers time to react to a chance in the starting lineup.
For our NBA DFS lineups, this leaves us in a conundrum. On a two-game slate, Dallas plays in the later game, so we won’t know if Porzingis is in or out until after the first game locks. The safe play is to fade Porzingis, but I don’t think this is the way to create the most upside in GPP. I am willing to roll the dice and hope that he plays. The uncertainty regarding the injury will lower ownership in GPP and, due to late swap, we can always make swaps if Porzingis is ruled out.
If Porzingis is ruled out ahead of time, Luka Doncic becomes an obvious to target to pay up for. Without Porzingis on the court, Doncic has a 39% usage rate and scores 61.69 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. Dorian Finney-Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr. also sees upticks in usage with Porzingis off the floor. As for value, Maxi Kleber is the cheap player to rostering without Porzingis. In Sunday’s overtime win, Kleber ended up logging 37 minutes.
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Nuggets Facing Elimination
Unlike the situations we saw with the Pacers, 76ers and Nets, it still feels like the Nuggets are in this series. This isn’t to say they are likely to come back, but the other teams we saw get knocked off felt done well before their final game. I think we can anticipate the starters logging heavy minutes for Denver tonight. In particular, the ceiling and floors for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are significant in this spot. Both players should play around 40 minutes in a win-or-go-home situation.
Denver made lineup changes last game that I anticipate will stick. Monte Morris and Jerami Grant started in place of Michael Porter Jr. and Torrey Craig. It’s a bit funny because these players came out of the starting lineup for totally different reasons. Craig provides nothing on offense, and Porter is unplayable due to what is happening to him on the defensive end of the floor. The Jazz are attacking Porter in the pick-and-roll, and it’s basically a free bucket. There was a stretch last game where Utah got a switch onto Porter and scored baskets on seven consecutive possessions. This makes Porter tough to trust while Grant is one of the stronger values on the slate.
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