Every week, it’s important to survey the NFL DFS landscape to determine potential building blocks, which are the core plays that form the foundation of most lineups. The popular options rise to the top more often than not, but there also are overlooked plays at every position, usually only a couple of names down the rankings list. In this post, we’ll be making our best NFL DFS Week 12 picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stokastic provides a variety of tools for all DFS sports that can help you sort through the large NFL feature slate player pool. These were utilized in coming up with the recommendations in this article and include, and they are far from limited to such offerings as the NFL DFS Top Stacks tool, player projections, the Boom/Bust tool and the Lineup Generator.
All tools are updated for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates each week. Additionally, multiple tools are also at your disposal for the sub-slates as well as the primetime “island games” which have turned into one of the most popular DFS offerings on DraftKings and FanDuel. If you’re in the market for more DFS tools, Take a look at the Stokastic Discounts and Coupon Code page as well as the Subscription page to see what packages best suit your needs.
While there are no teams on a bye this week, we had two extra games on Thursday, as is per the standard Thanksgiving slate, and, for the first time, we also got a Black Friday game. The extra game makes sense when we consider that Amazon Prime was aced out of the typically Thursday featured game, though the 3 p.m. ET start time was a little unusual.
NFL DFS Week 12 Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
Best NFL DFS Week 12 Picks and Building Blocks: Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (Eagles-Bills): DraftKings ($8,300, 12.4% ownership), FanDuel ($8,800, 17.2% ownership)
This week Jalen Hurts is grading out as the “safest” option, but there is no salary discount with him. Last week he fell below 20 fantasy points for the first time in nine games, with a paltry 19.9 effort. I’m kidding, of course, as he put those numbers together in a road upset of the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Hurts has multiple touchdowns in every game, save for Week 1, and Buffalo is clearly in disarray and at risk of falling back to .500 with a loss. That means the Bills are in a “kitchen sink” game, which should keep Hurts pushing for fantasy points the entire 60 minutes.
Josh Allen (Bills-Eagles): DraftKings ($8,100, 5.9% ownership), FanDuel ($9,200, 7.7% ownership)
Josh Allen is shaping up as a contrarian tournament option on FanDuel with the highest quarterback salary on the blue site. That said, he has 22 or more fantasy points in eight of the last 10 games with rushing touchdowns in seven of those appearances. It is clear that stacking him with Dalton Kincaid and Stefon Diggs is the way to go, but Diggs is also carrying a big cap hit. While that is keeping the popularity of the tandem suppressed, we will still want to find differentiation at other positions, to be sure that there is not a lot of overlap with other Buffalo stacks.
Best NFL DFS Week 12 Picks and Building Blocks: Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Saints-Falcons): DraftKings ($8,400, 8.9%), FanDuel ($8,700, 9.3%)
It will cost you a pretty penny to roster Alvin Kamara this week, but he has one of the best running back workloads of the entire player pool. Derek Carr was back to full practice status, so he should be under center on Sunday, wearing his Captain Checkdown cape. Though he has to contend with Taysom Hill stealing red zone opportunities, Kamara has a 12-to-15 carry baseline, along with half a dozen targets. He can really pile up the full-PPR points on DraftKings and he is in play for 100 combined yards and a touchdown.
Jonathan Taylor (Colts-Buccaneers): DraftKings ($6,900, 31.3%), FanDuel ($7,500, 33.3%)
This week is going to come down to Jonathan Taylor as the major decision point. Currently, he projects as the most popular running back across the main DFS sites. It is my opinion that this is a bit of group think and he is actually a risky play going against the Tampa Bay defense, which has the third-best rushing DVOA. Additionally, this game has the Colts as home favorites by barely a field goal, which may not lead to the heavy rushing load that the projections seem to be expecting.
Only D’Andre Swift (130), Christian McCaffrey (78) and James Cook (67) have topped 60 rushing yards against the Buccaneers. Even more crazy, the only two touchdowns by running backs were receptions by Alexander Mattison in the opener and McCaffrey last week.
In the last three weeks, Taylor has seen his snap share increase from 61% to 74% to 88%. He has seen 12, 18 and 23 carries to go along with that increase. Of course, touchdowns are the wild card, and while Taylor has three in his last four games, he really needs to tally two before his faders feel the need to repent.
Jerome Ford (Browns-Broncos): DraftKings ($5,600, 8.2%), FanDuel ($6,700, 10.1%)
To me it seems that Jerome Ford is a logical pivot away from Taylor, because even with the Browns on the road in Denver, the rushing matchup is much better. The Broncos have improved on defense but are still allowing a league-worst 160 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry. Over the last four tilts, all Denver victories, they allowed 175 rushing yards to Minnesota, 192 in Buffalo, 62 in that odd game against Kansas City and 137 to Green Bay.
Ford is not going to make anyone forget about Nick Chubb, but considering rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be under center and the Browns have a fierce defense, controlling the clock with Ford is their best path to a road victory. Ford is also a capable receiver, so he should get a few dump-off passes, further padding his yardage totals.
Best NFL DFS Week 12 Picks and Building Blocks: Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown (Eagles-Bills): DraftKings ($9,000, 16.8%), FanDuel ($8,800, 20.8%)
After dropping a dud last week in Kansas City, turning only four targets into one catch for eight yards, expect a turnaround on Sunday for A.J. Brown. Even with that rock-bottom performance, he is still third in the league with 101.3 yards per game, and his 9.8 targets per game are right in line with the other elite options. He has the luxury of a terrific running game, a dual-threat quarterback and a solid wingman in DeVonta Smith, who keeps him from being shut out most weeks. Prior to the Monday Night stinker, Brown had topped 125 yards or scored a touchdown in seven consecutive games.
Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts-Buccaneers): DraftKings ($6,800, 17.2%), FanDuel ($7,600, 15.8%)
The loss of Anthony Richardson with a season-ending injury was sad for all involved, though there is a slight silver lining for Michael Pittman Jr. Gardner Minshew is a much better pocket passer and leans on his receivers rather than his legs. Pittman is a threat for double-digit targets most weeks, and though he has just three touchdowns, this is the perfect time to lean into his pedestrian game logs. Tampa Bay can be exploited through the air and as detailed in the running back section above, my belief is that the Colts will struggle on the ground.
Premium Members can check out all the other wide receiver options here.
Best NFL DFS Week 12 Picks and Building Blocks: Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid (Bills-Eagles): DraftKings ($5,300, 17.3%), FanDuel ($6,000, 17.9%)
Travis Kelce is on the main slate, but he is $8,300 on FanDuel and $8,200 on DraftKings. That translates to the third most expensive pass-catcher on the blue site and the fourth on DraftKings. Yes, he is a tournament option as the most capable option for Patrick Mahomes, but there are better discount options, which, in turn, means double-tight ends is a savvy strategy, yet again.
Dawson Knox is still out of commission and on the injured reserve, which means Quintin Morris will be the traditional blocker for around one-third of the offensive plays, but he has just three targets on the season. Full disclosure, he had two looks last week, but it is Dalton Kincaid who should be the apple of our eye. While the rookie is not a traditional tight end, he is second on the team with 58 targets, including at least six each of the last five weeks, on his way to 39 during this timeframe.
The Bills have smartened up and are using Kincaid mostly in the slot or split out from the offensive line. When a blocker is needed, it is Morris or fullback Reggie Gilliam getting the call, but the fantasy goodness is going to Kincaid.
Trey McBride (Cardinals-Rams): DraftKings ($4,700, 19.6%), FanDuel ($6,100, 15.4%)
Trey McBride saw his salary tick up a little on most DFS sites, even though he has gone three weeks without a tuddie and logged fewer than 45 yards in two of the last three weeks. Sadly, this is very appropriate, as the salary algorithms are seeing through the slight scuffling stats and are understanding that Kyler Murray has definite designs on making sure McBride is not left stranded at the alter, so to speak.
The last six weeks have seen McBride surging with 46 targets, 382 yards and one lonely touchdown that should have some friends arriving down the stretch. McBride is a top-12 fantasy point per dollar pass-catcher on both DFS sites and is a top-20 option when looking at raw points.
Best NFL DFS Week 12 Picks and Building Blocks: Defense/Special Teams
New England Patriots at New York Giants: DraftKings ($3,200, 11.9%), FanDuel ($4,500, 10.8%)
Well, I was both wrong and right last week when I said that playing the Washington D/ST against the New York Giants was a trap. The Commanders did in fact lose the game, both at home and in a truly embarrassing fashion. However, their defense managed nine sacks despite trading away two of their five best defenders at the trade deadline.
Even with New England being on the road and coming into this game with uncertainty at quarterback, the Patriots had a Week 11 bye, and it is hard to believe that coach Bill Belichick won’t have the Pats’ pass rush ready to go for this matchup. The Giants have allowed just shy of six sacks per game, and while New England has just 18 sacks through 10 tilts, anything less than a half dozen combined sacks and turnovers should be considered a disgrace for the Evil Genius.
Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns: DraftKings ($3,200, 8.0%), FanDuel ($4,100, 9.3%)
For the FanDuel crowd, Denver looks like the best point-per-dollar option that could also reach double-digit fantasy points. Though the Broncos have crested over that arbitrary milestone only twice this season, this squad has 34 FanDuel points through the last three tilts. They are a solid play on DraftKings, though there are several other defenses within $300 that are as good or better plays.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: DraftKings ($3,100, 12.1%), FanDuel ($5,000, 5.3%)
The Kansas City D/ST is a luxury play on FanDuel, but this unit is in the mix for tournaments on DraftKings. The only thing dinging them in the “cash game” streets is being on the road. In four of the last five weeks, this squad has compiled double-digit fantasy points and they are getting a matchup against a rookie signal-caller, who has been steady with unloading the ball to the first or second read, but Aidan O’Connell is rooted to the ground with just three carries for six yards over the last two weeks, along with five sacks. The four interceptions are enticing as well.
As you get your best NFL DFS Week 12 picks and lineups prepped on DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic can help. We have more free DFS content on the NFL DFS homepage, premium DFS software including NFL Sims and the Lineup Generator, and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel.
You can also talk NFL DFS picks and strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!
