College football Week 5 continues with a 12-game Saturday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Saturday, Sept. 30.
CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Saturday, Sept. 30
Quarterback
Caleb Williams ($10,500): The premier game of the slate, USC enters Week 5 as a 21.5 point favorite over Colorado in a game with a 74 total. Not only is Colorado’s defense non-existent, but the slate’s loose pricing makes Williams attainable. A mobile signal caller, Williams already averages 300 yards per game on just 25.5 attempts. A competitive game against Colorado should cause his volume to rise.
Taylen Green ($6,200): Boise State enters Week 5 as a 3.5 point underdog to Memphis in a game with a 59 total. After using Green as a pocket passer through the first three weeks (and losing games), Boise State fully embraced his rushing prowess. Last week, he received 11 designed attempts, which eclipsed his season total to that point.
Hudson Card ($6,600): Purdue ranks 35th in pace and throws the ball 52.6% of the time. Hudson Card averages 37 attempts per game for 256 yards. Illinois replaced four NFL players in their secondary this offseason. Card also has 95 rushing yards this year, giving him a solid floor for his price.
KJ Jefferson ($7,300): Arkansas comes into this week as a 6.5 point home underdog in a game with a 53.5 total. Jefferson has posted some elite efficiency metrics, including a 70.4% completion percentage for 8.5 yards per attempt. Jefferson also possesses strong mobility. Both of which should dice up a Texas A&M defense that allowed over 10.0 yards per attempt to Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke.
Running Back
Jonathon Brooks ($6,200): Texas has narrowed their running back rotation, using Jonathon Brooks as a true feature back. Over the last two weeks, Brooks averages 20 touches per game with a route rate over 50%.
Blake Watson ($6,500): Like Texas, Memphis has narrowed their running back rotation, using Blake Watson as a feature back. Last week, he touched the ball 26 times, including nine targets. He has seen at least 16 touches in three straight games and Boise State allows 5.0 yards per carry to opposing rushers.
Ashton Jeanty ($6,800): George Holani has missed the last three games and projects to sit here again. With Holani out, Ashton Jeanty has averaged 26.3 touches per game. This includes 17 targets during those three games. Without Holani, he comes in as the top running back play on the entire slate.
Will Shipley ($5,900): Clemson enters Week 5 as a 6.5 favorite over an untested Syracuse team in a game with a 53.5 total. Will Shipley has received more work in competitive games, which this projects to be. Between Florida State and Duke, Shipley averaged 24.5 touches in the two games.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
Wide Receiver
Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,700): Texas comes into the week as a 16.5 point favorite over Kansas in a game with a 61 total. Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders has a 19.8% target share and leads Texas with 268 receiving yards. DraftKings insists on underpricing tight ends, making Sanders one of the top price-adjusted players on the slate.
Brock Bowers ($5,400): Georgia is a 14.5 point favorite over Auburn in a game with a 46 total. In a close game against South Carolina, Brock Bowers participated in 97% of the routes, registering nine targets. He is simply underpriced, if Auburn keeps this game close.
Isaiah Williams ($5,700): A sneaky shootout, Illinois enters Week 5 as a one point favorite over Purdue in a game with a 53.5 total. More importantly both teams rank top 35 in pace with defensive weaknesses. Isaiah Williams leads Illinois with a 30% target share and 23 targets over the last two games.
Javon Antonio ($4,600): Despite coming in as three score underdogs, Colorado’s 11th ranked pace and 62.4% pass rate keeps the pass catchers viable. Travis Hunter has already been ruled out and Xavier Weaver is questionable. Javon Antonio returned last week and immediately participated in 70% of the routes. Already a solid play, a potential Weaver absence would make Antonio an elite play.
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($5,200): Purdue funnels most of their targets between Deion Burks and Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen. Yaseen has a 22.9% target share, averaging eight targets and 68.5 yards per game. Both Burks and Yaseen provide elite stacking options with Card and one-off potential.
