Max Verstappen already has locked up the Drivers Championship and Red Bull the Constructors Championship — not mathematically, but spiritually to be sure. The only driver who has been in Verstappen’s stratosphere in the standings is his teammate Sergio Perez, who is now nearly 100 points back after a string of miserable qualifying outings. He has missed Q3 in five straight qualifiers, though the Red Bull car’s dominance has still allowed Perez to score 51 points in those five grands prix.
But Verstappen won all five of those races and also added a sprint race win, so he is starting to build an insurmountable lead. As such, DraftKings does not have odds up for the Drivers Championship, nor do they have odds for Constructors since Red Bull has more than double the points of second-place Mercedes. Instead, DraftKings has odds for Drivers Champion Without Max Verstappen and Constructors Champion Without Red Bull. Let’s take a look at those odds and examine some potential Formula 1 futures and picks outside of the winner’s circle.
Formula 1 Odds & Futures: Fighting for Second Place
Perez is in front in this race for second place at 156 points, but form-wise there is a lot pointing further down the odds board. For one, Lewis Hamilton (+300) has finished on the podium in three of his last four grands prix and has outscored Perez by 14 points in the last five. And given he is only 35 points back of Perez, it is conceivable that Hamilton could catch him in the last few races of the season.
Now, Hamilton would first have to catch Fernando Alonso, who is 16 points up on Hamilton and just 19 behind Perez, but Alonso’s 62 points over the last five grands prix are a hair behind Hamilton’s 65. Alonso’s season-long results have been slightly more consistent — six podiums to Hamilton’s four, three finishes outside the top 4 to Hamilton’s five — but Hamilton’s form is slightly better.
For a longer than long shot, there is a flimsy argument for Lando Norris at +20000. Carlos Sainz and George Russell have almost twice as many points as Norris, and Charles Leclerc is not far behind them, but Norris’ last two grands prix indicate something is improving with McLaren. Norris qualified second in Great Britain and finished second, earning 18 points, and the race prior he qualified fourth and finished fourth. Both times he outclassed Sainz and Russell despite those two having supposedly better cars.
Norris has to make up over 100 points to catch Perez, so this is lofty. But if the last two races were a sign of something, a crazy come-from-behind move into contention is not as outlandish as +20000 may seem.
Leclerc and Sainz in the Ferraris have been far too inconsistent to consider, but Russell at +13000 in the same car as Hamilton has some value as well. Russell’s results have more often been in the P5 range and he only has one podium, however.
Best Value Formula 1 Futures Pick: Lewis Hamilton Drivers Champion Without Max Verstappen (+300)
Super Longshot Formula 1 Futures Pick: Lando Norris Drivers Champion Without Max Verstappen (+20000)
Unfortunately, Aston Martin being the No. 2 team on the grid was short-lived, and it mostly has to do with the No. 2 driver. Alonso is carrying his weight, as laid out above. Lance Stroll, on the other hand, has scored 17 points total for Aston Martin in his last six grands prix — Alonso scored more than double that in just his last three. Aston Martin is not out of it since it is only 22 points behind Mercedes, a margin that can be made up with an Alonso podium and a Mercedes DNF. However, it makes sense that Ferrari has leapt Aston Martin in the odds here.
Mercedes is still clearly in front since the team’s results are more consistent and the higher-end finishes from Hamilton are coming most weeks. Ferrari, on the other hand, has just two podiums (both from Leclerc). Sainz has been steady and ranks ahead of Leclerc in the Drivers Standings thanks to finishing in the points in all but one race and Leclerc retiring twice early in the season. That said, the pace has not been there for Ferrari most weeks like it has been for Mercedes and for Alonso in the Aston Martin.
Again, McLaren is the longshot play here. Norris is a true top driver and is getting results, and rookie Oscar Piastri is the real deal. Piastri’s finishes were not overly impressive prior to Silverstone — where he placed fourth — but if McLaren’s upgrades are truly working, Piastri has proven he can get good drives out of the car. McLaren is 144 points behind Mercedes with 12 races remaining, which means a minimum of 12 points gained on Mercedes per race to cash this bet. That is lofty, and probably impossible, but still interesting at +6500.
Best Value Formula 1 Futures Pick: Mercedes Constructors Champion Without Red Bull (-125)
Super Longshot Formula 1 Futures Pick: McLaren Constructors Champion Without Red Bull (+6500)
