Wednesday marks the midway point of the week with MLB DFS action getting underway at 12:35 p.m. ET and culminating in a 7:20 p.m. ET four-game featured slate on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Jordan Montgomery, Justin Steele and Clayton Kershaw.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: LHP Justin Steele vs. St. Louis Cardinals — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $44
Tonight brings a slimmed-down featured slate with just eight teams in action, along with an equal number of questionable fantasy pitchers. LHP Max Fried would have been on the shortlist as well, though Atlanta unfortunately had to place him on the injured list with a left forearm strain. Among our remaining options, the “safest” — and boy, is that term relative tonight — option is LHP Jordan Montgomery facing off against the Cubs in Chicago.
The Cubbies are a middling team against southpaws, but far from a collection of pushovers. Tonight they are likely to run out a fully right-handed lineup – outside of resurgent 2019 National League MVP Cody Bellinger. There is some strikeout potential for the taking, though most likely Montgomery will be leveraging his near 50% ground ball rate in the hopes of letting his offense put some numbers on the board.
Of course, the Cardinals are facing LHP Justin Steele, who is the featured pitcher for the article today. Make no mistake — Steele is pitching well beyond his projected talent level; the Regression Monster is lurking, and boy is he hungry. For the season, the 27-year-old lefty has put together a pristine 5-0 record, a 1.45 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in seven appearances spanning 43.1 innings.
These figures are all near the top of the various leaderboard categories, and while they are unsustainable, they do help represent that Steele’s excellent results in his first year as a full-time starter are likely a reasonable baseline projection. Last year Steele made 24 starts and from May 15 onward, he closed the book on the fifth inning in 15 of his 19 appearances. During this stretch he allowed more than three runs on only four occasions.
The Redbirds are a daunting matchup for southpaws and since the beginning of last year, the current collection of batsmen boasts a 132 wRC+ which is the highest in the league during this period. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes variables such as park factor to create a league-wide baseline of 100. This means that St. Louis creates runs 32% more efficiently than league average and three standard deviations better than the hapless Washington Nationals.
So why bring up Steele? Well for two reasons 1) his supporters need to understand that the miniscule stat line is not an automatic endorsement of his expectations tonight and 2) his detractors need to realize that maybe, just maybe Steele can hold his own tonight.
The next scheduled start for Steele is against the Houston Astros, who are not far behind the Cardinals when it comes to success against left-handed hurlers. For those of you in season long leagues, if these next two outings for Steele end up with him struggling, be sure to scoop him up off the waiver wire or take advantage of a discount in the trading market, as the June and July schedule look far more favorable and season long formats are all about buying the dips and realizing upside potential.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Clayton Kershaw at Milwaukee Brewers — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $56
While LHP Clayton Kershaw is no longer at the peak of his powers, which propelled him to the 2014 National League MVP as well as a trio of Cy Young Awards, he is still a formidable pitcher. Thus far in his age-35 season, the veteran lefty keeps setting ’em up and knocking ’em down. Even in his 16th season, he still has been able to stay right around his career average of 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Gone are the days when he would log 105 to 110 pitches in a start, but we can be reasonably confident he will throw 90 more often than not.
Milwaukee has quite a few right-handed hitters, and most will be in the lineup today. However, aside from budding star Willy Adames, young backstop William Contreras and veteran Brian Anderson, the remaining options such as Mike Brosseau, Luke Voit, Tyrone Taylor and Joey Wiemer are replacement level bats on their best days.
Early Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Josiah Gray at San Francisco Giants — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,200 | FanDuel $9,000 | Yahoo $34
This recommendation is all about finding a discounted SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo. While rolling with RHP Josiah Gray against a 5.1 implied run total seems foolhardy on the surface, there is a method to the madness. For his last start, I detailed a high-level overview of a recent change in his pitch mix and approach. Last year Gray led the league with 38 home runs allowed, yet this season outside of his debut against Atlanta, he has allowed only two.
By adding/increasing the use of his slider/cutter (the different analytical sites classify it both ways since it is a semi-combination pitch, making some comparisons difficult) and moving away from his fastball, he has batters off balance right now. Of course, adjustments will be made by opposing offenses, which will lead to more tweaks and counters from Gray, but for the time being he is in the driver’s seat for baseball’s timeless game of cat and mouse. Wednesday’s salary and a favorable pitcher’s park make Gray a reasonable SP2 where applicable.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Brayan Bello — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
RHP Brayan Bello, like many young pitchers, had the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season really put the clamps on his learning trajectory. The pandemic curtailed his promotion to the mid-minors and when baseball resumed in 2021, the Red Sox had the young Dominican resume his efforts in Single-A. Last year Bello did get 96 innings in the minors, with 58.2 being at Triple-A Worcester as well as getting 57.4 so-so innings in The Show.
Bello will turn 24-years-old next week, and while he is among the better Boston prospects, he is barely second tier when looking across the entire league. Though he is here to stay and will likely be a solid starter for the next several years, he still has to learn the ropes and doing so against an offense like Atlanta’s is going to be a tall order.
Look to the usual suspects in Atlanta’s All-Star-laden lineup, with Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies as the core four. Catcher Sean Murphy will likely be batting cleanup and he is an excellent way to fulfill the pesky backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo.
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Early Slate Target: New York Yankees vs. LHP Kyle Muller — 5.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 12:35 p.m. ET
Aaron Judge (hip) returned to action last night, and while he did not have a hit, he did have a walk, a run and a pair of RBIs. He may get today off with this being a day game after a night game, but if he is in the lineup against LHP Kyle Muller, he is an interesting option in the home run market. and even down at +290, his 26% probability of hitting a home run in this matchup still works out to a 2.3% expected ROI.
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Muller was drafted out of high school in the second round of the 2016 MLB Draft by Atlanta. Oakland landed him in December as part of a three-team deal that saw them move on from Murphy, who was their catching mainstay. The 25-year-old never quite put things together and his star has fallen a long way from being a recent top prospect. Across 83 big league innings, Muller has an absurdly high 4.99 walks per nine innings and his lack of strikeouts and ground balls typically lead to ducks on the pond whenever there is an extra-base hit or a home run.
Even with Giancarlo Stanton still on the sidelines, the return of Judge dramatically reshapes the New York offense. If Judge sits this afternoon, that will in turn promote Gleyber Torres and Harrison Bader to more prominent slots in the batting order. Add in young Anthony Volpe at the top of the lineup, two-time batting champion DJ LeMahieu and, of course, Anthony Rizzo, who excels in lefty-lefty matchups, and we have ourselves the top stack of the slate.
Afternoon Slate Target: Houston Astros at RHP Griffin Canning — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
This afternoon the Houston offense should find things far more appealing with RHP Griffin Canning on the mound after facing RHP Shohei Ohtani last night. Canning has seen his strikeouts decline over the last four seasons while his home run and walk rates are heading in the opposite direction. His best role is likely that of a multi-inning reliever, who does not have to face batters more than once in a game.
Look to the usual suspects from the Astros, with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu serving as the core four. Outfielder Chas McCormick (back tightness) has returned from a multi-week absence and he is a fine differentiation option if he is in the lineup.
Final Thoughts for Wednesday, May 10 | MLB DFS Picks
The Midwest has some rain that is likely to impact the games in Kansas City and Minnesota. Of course, the arrival time and potential coverage area will shape our decisions.
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