With the NBA season tipping off tonight, we get a small two-game slate that serves as an appetizer to Wednesday night’s massive 12-gamer. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, let’s take a deeper dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS picks and contrarian options on DraftKings this evening.
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NBA DFS Picks – Contrarian Plays For Today: October 24
Contrarian Stud — Stephen Curry: Phoenix Suns-Golden State Warriors
Priced fairly on DraftKings at $9,200, Stephen Curry doesn’t look quite as appealing on a points-per-dollar basis as the two studs he’s priced in between, Nikola Jokic and Kevin Durant. Still almost $1,000 cheaper than his salary from last season, however, Curry’s $9,2000 price tag still offers plenty of meat on the bone. Projected to be only 18.90% owned, Curry is projected to be optimal 27.80% of the time on DraftKings, making him one of the top leveraged players in our Boom/Bust tool.
On these small two-game slates, going contrarian with someone like Curry makes a lot more sense than trying to go way outside the box on a big slate with tons of good NBA DFS picks. While it’s still unlikely, Curry needs to outscore only a couple of other studs to be the highest-scoring player on the slate.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Jonathan Kuminga: Phoenix Suns-Golden State Warriors
Sticking with the Warriors, Kuminga is also popping in our tools at only $4,600 on DraftKings. Small forward and power forward eligible, Kuminga has drawn rave reviews this summer and is expected to take on a much larger role with Golden State this season and with Draymond Green out tonight, he should be on the court plenty tonight.
Coming in with an even higher leverage score than Curry, Kuminga is projected to be optimal 34.70% of the time on this slate, while he’s only expected to be 19.50% owned. For a player who’s likely to take a big leap entering his third year in the league, this is a great opportunity to buy low on Kuminga while the rest of the market waits to see it with their own eyes.
Contrarian Value — Jordan Goodwin: Phoenix Suns-Golden State Warriors
If it seems that most of the good leverage spots come from the Suns-Warriors game, that’s because it does. With Bradley Beal doubtful and Devin Booker questionable, Phoenix looks like an obvious team to target tonight. While Durant, Josh Okogie and potentially Booker are expected to pull the majority of ownership, Goodwin looks like an elite contrarian value play at only $3,300. We’ve seen Goodwin be productive in the past with Washington and while he doesn’t expect to play a major role in the Suns rotation when Phoenix is fully healthy, he could end up playing a ton of minutes tonight if both Beal and Booker end up sitting.
At a leverage score of 20.4, Goodwin is projected to be optimal over 30.20% of the time on DraftKings tonight. Compare that to his projected 9.80% ownership and it’s clear why he’s a sharp way to get different on a slate with plenty of good spend-up options.
