After a monster 12-game Wednesday night slate, we are back to dumpster diving for contrarian options on Thursday’s two-gamer. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best options to get different on DraftKings this evening.
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NBA DFS Picks – Contrarian Plays For Today: October 26
Contrarian Stud — Giannis Antetokounmpo: Philadelphia 76ers-Milwaukee Bucks
Unlike last night, where the contrarian options were plentiful, tonight is all about peeling back the onion in an effort to get different. While there’s no doubt that Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant are underpriced for their respective upsides, the field knows that, and the ownership is already there.
Giannis will certainly be owned — he’s projected to be in 30% of DraftKings lineups — but he’s also optimal in 34.90% of simulations, giving him nice leverage at a very fair price point. While there are questions as to what the addition of Damian Lillard will do to Giannis’ numbers, he’s still probably the best fantasy basketball player on the planet, and at this discounted price tag, it is worth being over the field on him.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Tobias Harris: Philadelphia 76ers-Milwaukee Bucks
Sticking with the first game of the night, it’s no secret that pretty much everyone on the 76ers becomes more fantasy viable with James Harden out of the picture. Harris certainly has his downsides, but he is still the second-most accomplished scorer on the 76ers, behind only Embiid. In a game that should be high scoring and competitive, Stokastic has Harris being optimal 21.10% of the time on DraftKings. Compare that to his 13.60% projected ownership, and it’s clear why Harris is popping as the top leverage play in the mid-tier.
Contrarian Value — Saben Lee: Phoenix Suns-Los Angeles Lakers
With both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal out tonight, the Suns have multiple value pieces worth looking at in tournaments. Atop that list is NBA DFS legend Saben Lee. Of course, I say that in jest, but Lee has been known to break slates at his flat $3,000 price tag, and today Stokastic has him as one of the top leverage plays on the entire board.
Lee is projected to be only 2.40% owned on DraftKings, and the field is clearly out on Lee, as Jordan Goodwin looks to be the value play du jour at $3,200. With 90.80% of the field expected to roster Goodwin, Lee falls out of favor quickly, as most people will be uncomfortable playing them both together. Despite his 2.40% expected ownership, however, Lee has a 13.30% chance of being optimal, making him a really nice way to get different on a slate with a lot of chalk.
