Thursday’s NBA slate brings us Game 1 of the NBA Finals with a scheduled tip-off of 8:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. Can Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo keep the momentum going for Miami, or will Nikola Jokic and Company be too tough of a matchup to overcome? Let’s dig into the NBA DFS core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, June 1
Core Play of the Day — Nikola Jokic — Denver Nuggets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 67.75 | FanDuel: 63.29
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 74.3% | FanDuel: 68.6%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $14,000 | FanDuel: $17,500
Tonight brings a new matchup for the first time in 20 days. After sweeping the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, Denver has not taken the court outside of practice in the last 10 days.
It is a shame that FanDuel seems to have a player salary limit of $17,500, because Nikola Jokic should really be around $19,000 on the blue site. Currently, when running an unencumbered (aka no restrictions) set of 100 lineups, Jokic is in the MVP slot for 84 and in the Star slot for the other 16 rosters. Only three times in the first 25 lineups (Nos. 15, 23 and 24) does he not garner the top multiplier slot, Clearly differentiation can be found by moving him down one or two multipliers, but it certainly doesn’t feel great.
The DraftKings salary for Jokic is reasonable; however, there are enough sub-$3,000 options that keep the two-time NBA MVP in the Captain slot for all 100 lineups built from Stokastic’s median fantasy-point projections. Looking at the puzzle in a different fashion and locking in Joker to a utility slot ends up with a dozen lineups that project within 7 points of the top Jokic rosters. That is a close enough range that there is no need to force him into the top slot for tournaments.
How coach Erik Spoelstra and the Heat deal with Jokic in the paint is going to be interesting for sure. It is likely that we will see them return to a larger frontcourt, though even that, along with collapsing help, may not be enough, with Jokic being one of the best passers in the game. Fortunately for DFS gamers, Jokic can rack up fantasy production in a myriad of ways, so even if he is held to “only” 20 points, he should still pile up the boards and dimes.
Latest NBA DFS Content
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Injury Uncertainty! (April 26)
- DraftKings Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Kevin Durant (April 26)
- FanDuel Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Karl-Anthony Towns (April 26)
- NBA DFS Late Swap Advice: How to Use Our New Tool to Improve Your Process and Profit
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Nikola Jokic Is The Man! (April 25)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Jamal Murray has been phenomenal this postseason, averaging 27.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks and steals in 39.1 minutes per game. These numbers are actually quite similar to what his 2019 to 2020 Playoffs looked like, when the Nuggets fell to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals during the “bubble playoffs” amid the pandemic. Murray has 60-fantasy-point upside, though against the Heat that is likely going to be somewhat subdued to the 50-fantasy-point range. He is worthy of the top multiplier slot on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Michael Porter Jr. received a salary boost between series, both on DraftKings and FanDuel. This now has him as more of a neutral play, and though his scoring is likely to remain in the mid-teens, he may take a rebounding hit against Miami, after notching double-doubles in three of the four Western Conference Finals tilts.
Bruce Brown Jr. is coming off a dud in Game 4, failing to reach double-digit fantasy points for the first time this postseason and dipping below 20 fantasy points for only the third time. Denver will need him to help defend multiple positions, and even though he will remain in a reserve role, he has the most secure minutes of any bench player and should see 26 to 28 for most of this series, with upside to the low-30s. Though on the surface it would seem that Brown is unlikely to continue converting 53.1% of his field goal attempts, in 16 playoff games with Brooklyn in his two seasons before joining the Nuggets, the 26-year-old had a 52.6% success rate.
Aaron Gordon is tough to trust and his 40-fantasy-point outburst in the final game against Los Angeles is more of an aberration than it is sustainable. Gordon will get the minutes, but considering he didn’t have a 20-fantasy-point effort in the four games before his masterpiece, he can be left to other gamers. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is similar to Gordon in that he will get minutes for his defense and doing the dirty work, but his discount on DraftKings and especially on FanDuel make him a solid point-per-dollar play. Plus, he is one of the few Nuggets who have been in an NBA Finals game.
Jeff Green will get minutes, but he is a lesser version of Gordon and Caldwell-Pope. However, at just $500 above the FanDuel salary floor and at $2,200 on DraftKings, he is a viable option who may get luck in 12 to 15 minutes. Rookie Christian Braun should at least get one rotation in the first game, though that will dry up as the series advances, and he is unlikely to see anything substantial outside of mop-up duty in a lopsided affair.
Jimmy Butler — Miami Heat
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.35 | FanDuel: 51.17
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 44.6% | FanDuel: 59.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $13,600 | FanDuel: $16,500
The main difference between Miami and Denver, aside from the Heat not having a two-time NBA MVP leading their squad, is experience — in particular, NBA Finals experience. Miami has two starters and a key reserve who all saw action in the 2020 Finals against the Lakers. Plus, that does not include Tyler Herro, who has a chance to return for Game 3 if his hand continues to heal.
Jimmy Butler is, of course, the heart and soul of the Miami Heat, but he is going to need a lot of help from his teammates if they want to avoid a drubbing by Denver. The Nuggets are well rested, and the thin air of the Mile High City is a tremendous homecourt advantage. It will be interesting to see how coach Erik Spoelstra employs Butler on defense. Playoff Jimmy will be 34 in September, and through 17 postseason appearances, he has averaged 39.4 minutes per game. This will be about as fresh as he will be for any game of the Finals, coming off a scant 72 hours of rest. It is going to be hard asking Butler to carry the offense and also keep tabs on Murray.
Bam Adebayo was uneven with his performances in the Eastern Conference Finals. Though he averaged 36.6 minutes, 14.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.5 combined blocks and steals, he was invisible at times on offense and on the boards. Be careful looking at the fantasy totals from Adebayo’s two efforts against the Nuggets this season, as they include six steals and three blocks. FanDuel did give Adebayo a $1,000 discount compared to his last game, while DraftKings essentially decided to tread water.
Caleb Martin moved into the starting lineup for the last two games of the Boston series, and he played like a boss. In these games, he averaged 43 minutes while knocking down 18 of 29 (62.1%) from the field and 8 of 14 (57.1%) from behind the arc. It will be fun to see if Martin remains in the starting lineup or if coach Spoelstra decides to roll with Kevin Love for the first shift. Either way, Martin is likely to play 38-plus minutes in a close game, and we should pencil him in for 40 if he stays in the starting five. In 18 games this postseason, including three starts, Martin has a 56.6% success rate from the field and an effective shooting percentage of 68.4%. Even when Herro returns, we are likely to see Martin playing ahead of him.
Gabe Vincent was on the 2020 Miami Finals team, though he played only 15 seconds in that entire postseason … though it was still more than Udonis Haslem. Vincent’s fantasy production has been all over the place, and over the last 10 games he has only one with more than 27 fantasy points. In turn, this has kept his DFS salary in check, and even with a low-20s median fantasy-point projection, Vincent is a borderline core play.
Max Strus is the player to roster if you want to feel rage — when you roll with him, he underperforms, yet when he is left out of your player pool, somehow he is all you seem to hear about on the telecast. Strus has only one 20-fantasy-point effort in his last nine games. Both DraftKings ($4,800) and FanDuel ($7,000) are daring us to grab the falling knife with his lowest salary of the postseason. On the flipside, Duncan Robinson has his highest salary in the last 11 games on DraftKings ($4,200), so he needs to keep knocking down multiple 3-pointers to break even.
For those willing to eschew Strus and Robinson, perhaps a nice order of Haywood Highsmith will fit the bill. The salary on DraftKings ($1,400) is particularly appealing, but the lack of popularity on FanDuel ($6,500) has him in play on the blue site as well. This is a terrifying recommendation, as Highsmith has been a DNP-CD in four of the last eight games and logged less than five minutes in two others.
In late-December, the 26-year-old basketball vagabond actually started and played 21 minutes against the Nuggets, with Vincent, Robinson and Strus all coming off the bench. Then in mid-February, though he came off the bench, he did see 27.5 minutes. This is a new series, and that in turn brings different matchups and strategies. We know that coach Spoelstra loves to tinker, and while it would be a shock to see Highsmith start, if he is able to get 20 to 25 minutes tonight, we are going to want to be early to that party.
Cody Zeller and Love are likely to get their chances to bang with Jokic on the boards, but neither is capable of being more than a hindrance on defense. Neither player was on the Heat when they played the Nuggets, so there is no history to draw on. Lines are not posted as of this writing, but shorting Love on anything above a 10.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) wager seems like a savvy play, even if he is starting tonight.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Jokic currently looks like the best option on BetMGM, with his over 27.5 points prop. In the 14 games where he has played 30 or more minutes in the playoffs, the two-time NBA MVP has scored 28 or more points 10 times, and the other four games were not too far off, with 27, 24, 23 and 24 points.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Jokic projected for 39.8 minutes and 27.09 points. While this median projection is right on the line, there is still a 57% likelihood that he tops tonight’s milestone, and at -105 at BetMGM, this play projects out to a steady 3.2% expected ROI.
Keep in mind that, with only one NBA matchup today, finding major value is unlikely, so consider using bonus bets and boosters to aid in the quest to remain profitable.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
When you start to build your DFS lineups, be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link receive a first deposit match up to $100.
