NBA Player Props: How to Exploit Deandre Ayton's Absence (March 19)

Sportsbooks have set their lines perfectly for Sunday’s slate, and it is going to be much harder to find value in the NBA player prop market. Despite only one prop clearing 5% EV, and just a few others having a positive ROI, subscribing to NBA Bet Pro remains crucial. Today we will examine the top three NBA player props on DraftKings for Sunday, March 19.

Keep in mind, the early slate of games tips at 3:30 p.m. ET, and two of the following picks come from the afternoon set.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | March 19

3. Chris Paul Over 4.5 Rebounds (-135)

The Suns-Thunder game starts in the early window, so be sure to get these picks in on time.

Paul is only averaging 4.2 rebounds per game this season and has only hit this over twice in the last five games. However, circumstances are different today, as Deandre Ayton is out for the Suns, vacating 10.1 rebounds per game, and Phoenix’s other two centers in Bismack Biyombo and Jack Landale are projecting for less than 25 minutes today. Paul is 5-for-6 on this over in games he has played without Ayton this year, averaging over five rebounds per game in the process.

NBA Bet Pro is only giving this a 2% expected ROI, but it also has a 58% win expectancy, with Paul projecting for 5.3 rebounds today.

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 Rebounds (-110)

In the same game, Gilgeous-Alexander also could see some rebounding advantage with Phoenix sans Ayton, but the fact of the matter is this is a substantial pace down for the Thunder. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging well under this line this season (4.8 rebounds per game), and he has hit this over in only 39% of games in 2022-23. Now the matchup with the Suns loses Oklahoma City 3.33 possessions per 48 minutes off its average, so it is safe to project that Gilgeous-Alexander’s rebounding will not see a major boost from Ayton’s absence.

He is only getting a projection of 5.3 rebounds today, with the under seeing a 3% EV and a 54% win expectancy on NBA Bet Pro.

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1. Paolo Banchero Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+175)

This is comfortably the highest-ROI NBA player prop of the day, but it is also currently the riskiest +EV play, earning just a 38% win expectancy. This is largely due to Banchero’s incredible streakiness on his shooting the last few months. For example, he did not clear this line in February — not in a game, mind you, but rather, he made just one 3 in the entire month of February.

That said, Banchero has found his shot a bit more lately, hitting this over in four of his last eight games and shooting 36.4% from deep in that span. Now he gets a big pace up against the Lakers, a team that allows the fifth-most 3-point attempts and 10th-most makes in the NBA. Again, this is a longshot prop, with Banchero only projecting for 1.3 made 3’s. But he only needs to make two shots to pay off +175 odds, so NBA Bet Pro sees this as the No. 1 prop of the day.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.