Best ball summer continues to heat up as training camp approaches. Players’ ADPs have begun to solidify, but a few wide receivers still stand out as strong values to take a shot on in the middle rounds. Let’s get into this year’s high-upside wide receivers for 2023 NFL Best Ball leagues, using projections and Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings. The following includes some nifty Kadarius Toney Best Ball information.
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2023 NFL Best Ball Wide Receivers
Best Ball Wide Receivers: Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Christian Kirk comes off the board with an ADP of 48.3 on Underdog Fantasy. This puts him at WR27 on the platform. Jacksonville upgraded their wide receiver room with Calvin Ridley back from suspension. However, this ascending offense remains one to target at ADP during the summer months.
Last year, Kirk caught 84 balls for 1,108 yards and eight scores after coming over to Jacksonville via free agency. This equated to a strong 24.6% target share and 30% air yards share within the offense. Even more impressive, Kirk logged a strong 1.75 yards per route run.
The concern with Kirk stems from increased target competition. However, these concerns may overblown. Ridley has posted strong efficiency numbers throughout his career, but he hasn’t played in the better part of two seasons. Prior to spending last year suspended, Ridley only saw action in five games during the 2021 season due to injury.
Rather than steal targets from Kirk, it is also possible that Ridley siphons off some targets from Zay Jones. Jones logged a 23.1% target share and 26.3% air yards share himself. However, he has never been an efficient receiver. Last year, his 1.47 yards per route ranked 46th among pass catchers with at least 75 targets.
With all of that said, the Jacksonville offense still has room for improvement. Sportsbooks currently list their win total at 9.5 and Trevor Lawrence continues to ascend as a passer. With another step forward, this could become one of the elite offenses in football. Our rankings currently ride that wave Kirk coming in as our WR22.
Best Ball Wide Receivers: Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks)
Tyler Lockett comes off the board with an ADP of 63.9, making him the WR33 in Underdog drafts. Last year, Lockett caught 84 balls for 1,033 yards and nine scores with the Seahawks. This equated to a 22.8% target share and 30.9% air yards share in the offense. While the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba raises some concern for Lockett, this remains another situation to target aggressively this offseason.
Aside from increased target competition, some have raised age concerns as Lockett enters his age-31 season. However, even at age 30, Lockett and D.K. Metcalf posted similar efficiency numbers last year. Metcalf logged 1.93 yards per route, while Lockett came in at 1.89. While perhaps another drop can be projected, dropping Lockett to WR33 doesn’t make as much sense.
From there, Smith-Njigba brings concerns of his own. A slot only receiver at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba barely played in his final collegiate season. Some receivers struggle more than others with the jump to the NFL and it is possible this could happen to JSN after his prolonged absence from the game.
Regardless of Smith-Njigba’s concerns, this offense still might be powerful enough to support three receivers. Seattle retains the core of their coaching staff after passing 59.4% of the time (13th). Geno Smith also returns after a career season, where he completed 69.8% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt. Bookmakers currently grant Seattle an 8.5 win total, suggesting another season of solid offensive output. Our rankings currently slot Lockett at WR28 ahead of his current position on Underdog Fantasy.
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Best Ball Wide Receivers: Kadarius Toney (Kansas City Chiefs)
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney comes off the board at 72.9, making him the 38th receiver drafted on average. After coming to Kansas City via trade last year, Toney has positioned himself as the potential WR1 following JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s departure. While injuries have plagued Toney throughout his career, a full season with Patrick Mahomes under center could make Toney one of the best values in drafts.
Last year, Toney caught 14 passes for 171 yards and two scores with Kansas City. he also carried five times for 59 yards and another score. While injuries and a limited knowledge of the playbook did affect Toney, the former first round pick proved hyper-efficient on a small sample. Toney logged a 2.15 yards per route run, which lands almost exactly on his career average.
Already efficient, now Kadarius Toney needs a larger role. Fortunately, his only legitimate target competition looks like Travis Kelce. The rest of the receiver room gadget guys and role players like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Richie James, Justin Watson, and rookie Rashee Rice. Less talented players than Toney have beat out this level of competition.
A surprise to no one, bookmakers expect Kansas City to contend again in 2023. Books currently list Mahomes’ passing prop at 4800.5 yards. With a chance to carve out a sizeable role in this offense, Toney could be one of the top values in all of best ball. Our rankings currently slot Toney in at WR38 as well, but ahead of ADP. Expect the ranks to climb as Kadarius Toney solidifies his role in the offense this offseason.
