A major domino in the running back market fell on Monday. Ezekiel Elliott signed with the New England Patriots, providing depth to one of their most shallow positions. The Patriots presumably did not feel comfortable heading into the season with Ty Montgomery and Pierre Strong as their backup rushers.
Let’s analyze what this means for Ezekiel Elliott’s Best Ball ADP and value, and for Rhamondre Stevenson’s stock.
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Monday’s news is a major change to the Patriots’ roster. According to Ian Rapoport, the Elliott deal is worth up to $6 million over one year. RapSheet elaborated on the signing, suggesting that the Patriots still love Stevenson. However, they wanted a complementary back to “bang between the tackles and pass block“. With $6 million on the line, this signing doesn’t project to put Elliott into merely a handcuff role.
Elliott’s Best Ball ADP is likely to spike. He was coming off the board at pick 175.4 on Underdog Fantasy prior to the signing. Rapoport’s prediction signals that Elliott will be on the field in valuable situations. He should see touches inside the 20’s and potentially on third downs.
Ezekiel Elliott has experienced a sharp decline in efficiency over the last four seasons, ranking third worst in expected rushing yards among qualifying running backs last year. That said, he has battled injuries of late and he held up well under a large workload.
As for Stevenson, the third-year back experienced a career year in New England in 2022. He rushed 210 times for 1,040 yards and five scores, while catching 69 passes out of the backfield for another 421 yards.
DraftKings Sportsbook pegs the Patriots win total at a mediocre 6.5 this season. That indicates that scoring opportunities are likely to be limited in New England this year. Any ding to scoring opportunities and Stevenson’s receiving output will further hurt hurt his value. Stevenson currently comes off the board as a mid-second round pick with an ADP of 28.3 on Underdog Fantasy. That’s likely to fall in the coming weeks.
Overall, this signing should provide New England much needed running back depth for real life football. For DFS, season long Fantasy Football and Best Ball, Ezekiel Elliott comes in as a sharp value in the late rounds. However, Stevenson should see his ADP decline in the coming weeks.
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