Sleeper NFL‘s pick’em contest is always a great source of value because they are not afraid to offer discounts on the best players in the game. This week we get one on a resurgent superstar, and there are also a couple of other solid spots that are blowing up in the Stokastic projections. And on top of all of this, new users with Sleeper enter the Sleeper Fantasy promo code ‘STOKASTIC4′ when they sign up to get a deposit match up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Sleeper’s NFL pick’em contest.
NFL Sleeper Pick’em Predictions | Week 6
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Ja’Marr Chase H/L 72.5 Receiving Yards
It’s not quite a free square, but Sleeper is still offering a solid discount on Chase’s receiving yards as the Bengals gear up to take on one of the worst pass defenses in the league:
Sleeper Community has spoken 🗣️
They discounted Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards from 84.5 ➡️ 72.5 🎉
He’s averaging 95 yards per game and had 192 just last week 🤯
LIVE in-app now 🤝 pic.twitter.com/JZW6KKl6tD
— Sleeper Picks (@SleeperPicksHQ) October 11, 2023
The Seahawks are 3-1 thanks to a high-scoring offense and despite giving up more yards through the air than nearly every other team in football. Now, they have also seen the most total pass attempts in the league and thus are merely 20th out of 32 in net yards allowed per attempt, but Seattle has also allowed five receivers to go for more than 72.5 yards receiving and at least one to do so in three of four games. On top of that, the No. 1 receiver for each team went over 100 yards in each of those three games.
After a slow start, Chase has rebounded to record more than 72.5 yards in three straight games, including one with 141 and another with nearly 200. He also has at least eight targets in all five games and two contests with 15-plus. Joe Burrow is back in lockstep with Chase, and this discounted number should be easily attainable.
For the record, the higher on Chase’s original line was a borderline play. With Chase projecting for over 90 yards and a slate-high 11 targets, higher than 72.5 is a lock.
Best NFL Sleeper Play: Ja’Marr Chase Higher Than 72.5 Receiving Yards (1.77x)
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Dalvin Cook H/L 13.5 Rushing Yards
Now for the picks that are a bit more in the toss-up category.
Cook’s role in the Jets offense is perhaps a bit lighter than some may have expected. He is getting touches, but they are not leading to much production; he has just one game averaging more than 3.2 yards per carry. And with Breece Hall fully back to form, the rushing snaps have strongly favored him over Cook — 59 compared for 39 for Cook.
All that said, Cook has still eclipsed 13.5 yards rushing in all but one game despite low volume and bad efficiency. He is seeing the field plenty, and even if Hall has been the more effective runner, 13.5 is simply too low given Cook’s easy potential to get to this number on just a couple of carries. He is coming off four straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons, after all.
Maybe it’s the matchup with Philadelphia that has Cook’s higher/lower numbers reduced industrywide. The Eagles have allowed the fewest yards on the ground this season and have the most fearsome interior defense in the game, but keep in mind that the Jets passing attack is not nearly potent enough to expect them to move away from the running game. Stokastic has Cook at over 20 yards rushing.
Best NFL Sleeper Play: Dalvin Cook Higher Than 13.5 Rushing Yards (1.73x)
Bryce Young H/L 22.5 Completions
What to make of Young? The results through his first four NFL games have not been impressive, and the team is reportedly going to simplify the playbook for him moving forward, but he also doesn’t need to be impressive to get to 23 receptions. He hit that number the last two weeks while posting mediocre passer ratings in both games.
The matchup could also be pointing higher than 22.5, as the Dolphins score at such a ludicrous rate that Carolina may have to throw a lot to keep pace. Therefore, higher than 22.5 is trending as the pick, right? Well … there are other factors in play here. For one, Miami’s defense is actually middle of the pack in terms of volume of pass attempts seen and is top 10 in Pro Football Focus’ pass defense grades. And even if Young does end up dropping back a lot (Stokastic has him at 37.3 attempts), he is far from guaranteed to be efficient enough to hit this number — he projects for only 19.7 completions.
There is also the potential for this game getting so out of hand that Carolina punts on much of the game and Young does not even get close to the number. If there is any offense that can put this out of reach by halftime, it is the Dolphins’. That prospect is helping to push the lower’s win expectancy to one of the highest non-discounted numbers of the Sunday slate.
Best NFL Sleeper Play: Bryce Young Lower Than 22.5 Completions (1.82x)
All together, this three-pick entry comes with a 5.57x payout.
