Tonight’s Showdown slate heads to Underdog Fantasy for Giants-49ers Thursday Night Football. The focus for this matchup is all about the apparent mismatch, with the 49ers looking dominant and the Giants a total mystery. Luckily, we are getting a Daniel Jones free square from Underdog to get us rolling. Plus, OddsShopper and Underdog Fantasy are teaming up to offer new users a great promo: You can get your first deposit DOUBLED on Underdog up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Underdog Fantasy’s NFL pick’em contest for TNF.
Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.
NFL Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions | September 21
Daniel Jones M/L 0.5 Total Yards
The easiest start to an Underdog entry for Thursday Night Football is this Jones free square. If you are baffled by what to do with the state of the Giants offense, what better way to eliminate the confusion by playing Jones to get at least 1 yard? Just one scramble or poorly executed dump-off is all Jones needs to hit this and start an entry off on the right track — even if the Giants blow up like they did in Week 1.
Clearly, no one is on the fence with this one, but just in case, Stokastic is projecting Jones for 207.1 yards passing and 37.8 yards rushing tonight. That might cut it close, but as long as Jones is healthy, he should be able to get at least 1 total yard.
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Daniel Jones More Than 0.5 Total Yards
Matt Breida M/L 12.5 Receiving Yards
Now for the actual analysis of the New York offense. Three things are pointing towards Breida clearing 12.5 yards receiving on Thursday: Saquon Barkley’s injury, Andrew Thomas’ injury and the lethal 49ers defense.
The first thing is obvious — Barkley is second on the Giants in targets with 11, and those are going to at least in part head Breida’s way now that he is RB1. Breida himself has one target through two games, which he turned into 5 yards. Two more of those and he clears 12.5, which points to the second and third reasons listed above. Without one of the best left tackles in the game against perhaps the best pass rush, Jones is going to have to get the ball out quickly and/or check down quite a bit. All of Barkley’s targets have been short passes or behind the line of scrimmage, and he saw four targets against another elite defense in the Cowboys.
While Breida is not quite the receiving threat Barkley is, three targets are a solid baseline, and Stokastic projects him to catch 2.1 for 13.8 yards.
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Matt Breida More Than 12.5 Receiving Yards
Christian McCaffrey M/L 78.5 Rushing Yards
McCaffrey’s rushing yards line varies across sportsbooks and pick’em sites, going as low as 77.5 and as high as 80.5. That said, Underdog is currently on the lower end at 78.5.
What is working in McCaffrey’s favor for the more is that he has crushed 78.5 in both games thus far and his playing time can best be described as “basically every snap.” Plus, though the Giants interior line was expected to be elite, the team is currently near the bottom of the NFL in run defense metrics. What is working against McCaffrey is the fact that San Francisco is a -500 moneyline favorite tonight, and thus Kyle Shanahan could be sending in the subs at some point in the second half.
As long as the game is close, however, McCaffrey is going to be on the field a ton, and his efficiency is off the charts. It is perfectly reasonable to count on 80-plus yards rushing from him even in the event he sits much of the fourth quarter. Stokastic projects him for 95.1 yards on 18.9 carries (over 5 yards per carry), giving the more a 53% chance of hitting.
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Christian McCaffrey More Than 78.5 Rushing Yards
Editor note: Looking for the best DFS contest simulator? We have you covered.
