TNF Showdown NFL DFS Strategy: Giants-49ers

For nearly two years now, I have been hosting the High Stakes podcast for Stokastic, interviewing DFS pros on a range of topics. There have been a lot of recurring themes on the show, but the most relevant for this article: DFS pros love NFL DFS TNF Showdown.

That is because a lot of casual NFL fans enter the Showdown fray to have some action on island games. As a result, DraftKings and FanDuel offer enormous contests with generous prize pools. The contests become more difficult to win, too, when there are hundreds of thousands of entrants, but with a large portion of the new players being casual, the increase in difficulty pales in comparison to the increase in prize pools. It is a tradeoff DFS pros will gladly make.

My goal with these Showdown articles — which I will be writing for each Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football NFL DFS slate this season — is to help you attack the largest-field DraftKings GPP like a pro. There are three main components to discuss when it comes to Showdown, and I will break them down accordingly: Projection, Correlation and Differentiation.

Week 3 Giants-49ers TNF Showdown: NFL DFS Showdown Strategy

Projection

The goal in DFS is to make the lineup that puts up the most points, so a natural starting point is looking at individual players who are likely to put up high scores or high point-per-dollar scores. I rely on Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections and tools to determine which players should be core pieces of my lineups. I primarily look at the base projections and the Top NFL DFS Showdown Plays Tool, which publishes results of thousands of advanced simulations run by the Stokastic team.

Studs

These are the top-projected players on the slate. I’d recommend having at least three of these players in just about every lineup you make tonight, either as captain or in a flex spot.

Christian McCaffrey ($13,200) has the highest projection on the slate by a wide margin against a Giants defense ranked 29th in pass DVOA and 24th in run DVOA.
Brock Purdy ($9,400) leads a three-man second tier of studs.
Deebo Samuel ($8,800) joins Purdy in the second tier and may get a projection boost if Brandon Aiyuk, currently listed as questionable, is ultimately ruled out.
Daniel Jones ($10,200) is also in the second tier of studs despite a tough matchup with a 49ers defense ranked fourth in pass DVOA and 22nd in run DVOA.
Aiyuk ($8,600) projects well but is questionable to play.
Darren Waller ($7,400) has the top projection among Giants skill position players.
George Kittle ($6,600) will have less target competition if Aiyuk sits but projects pretty well either way.

Top Point-Per-Dollar 49ers-Giants Picks

These are just a few players who will be featured throughout my lineups due to their high points-per-dollar projection. At the same time, because I will typically have at least three studs in each lineup, the top points-per-dollar plays are often players I will be pivoting away from in some lineups in favor of players who project a bit worse but who will also garner lower ownership. I am also excluding any player with a projection below 3 fantasy points from this list.

Eli Mitchell ($2,400) played just 10 snaps in Week 1 and zero in Week 2, but head coach Kyle Shanahan acknowledged after the Week 2 game that he would like to get Mitchell more involved.
Parris Campbell ($4,400) has run routes on at least 85% of dropbacks in both games and has been targeted ten times.
Darius Slayton ($5,600) saw his route participation jump from 78% to 92% in Week 2, and he has been targeted 11 times.
Matt Breida ($7,000) will likely lead what is expected to be a running back committee with Saquon Barkley out.
Isaiah Hodgins ($6,400) saw his route participation jump from 68% to 85% in Week 2, and two of his five Week 2 targets were in the red zone.
Jauan Jennings ($4,800) has run routes on 57% of dropbacks for the 49ers, and though he has only been targeted four times, his target share could see a boost if Aiyuk sits.
As usual, kickers and defenses are among the top value options. Jake Moody ($4,200) and the 49ers Defense ($5,800) project better than their Giants counterparts

Correlation

In NFL DFS, correlations are endless, both positive and negative. Most are minor enough that they do not necessarily need to be factored into lineups. If you want to give a boost to your running back’s defense, for example, that is great; but running backs will frequently be optimal without the defense also being optimal, even in NFL DFS Showdown.

The only correlations that are almost mandatory to consider on NFL DFS Showdown slates involve quarterbacks — particularly non-rushing quarterbacks. That is because of the scoring dynamics on DraftKings. On each passing play, the pass catcher scores more fantasy points than the quarterback. For example, if a quarterback throws a pass for 5 yards, he will get 0.2 fantasy points — 1 fantasy point per 25 yards passing, divided by five. The receiver will get 1.5 fantasy points — 1 point per reception, plus half a point for 5 yards receiving. The quarterback also only gets four points per passing touchdown, while the receiver gets six points for a receiving touchdown.

The quarterback is also generally one of the most expensive players on his team. Thus, he will often need to be his team’s highest fantasy point scorer to be the optimal captain. Outside of rare occasions where the quarterback scores fantasy points by passing to a player who is not in the DraftKings player pool or gets points as a receiver on a trick play, there are essentially just two ways for the quarterback to be the highest-scoring player on his team: adding fantasy points via rushing or spreading the ball around to multiple pass catchers.

Some General Thoughts:

If you play a quarterback at captain, and he does not have rushing upside, and he is the most expensive player on his team, you will almost always want to have multiple of his team’s pass catchers in the flex. This is also largely true if the quarterback is only slightly less expensive than the most expensive pass catcher on his team.
If you play a quarterback at captain, and he has moderate rushing upside, you can consider playing just one of his pass catchers in the flex — but multiple may still be preferred, depending on the extent of that rushing upside. The quarterback’s price may also come into play here; the more expensive he is, the more likely you will need to have multiple pass catchers in the flex.
If you play a quarterback at captain, and he has major rushing upside, you do not necessarily need to play any pass catchers in the flex. This is relatively uncommon, and only applies to a few quarterbacks.
If you play a quarterback in the flex, and he does not have rushing upside, you will generally want to have at least one of his pass catchers elsewhere in the lineup, either at captain or in another flex spot.
If you play a quarterback in the flex, and he has moderate to high rushing upside, you do not necessarily need to include one of his pass catchers elsewhere in the lineup. But there will always be positive correlation there between a quarterback and his pass catchers.

Some 49ers-Giants Game-Specific Thoughts:

If you play Jones: Jones had the fifth-most rushing yards of any quarterback in the NFL in 2022. His 708 rushing yards were just 56 yards from the second-best rushing quarterback, Lamar Jackson. The quarterback with the sixth-most rushing yards was Marcus Mariota with 438. In short, Jones is an elite rushing quarterback and can be played anywhere in your lineup without any pass catchers, though it is still generally best to pair him with at least one if Jones is in the captain spot.
If you play Purdy: Purdy has now started seven games in the NFL and has accumulated just 38 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. He should generally be paired with at least one pass catcher, and multiple is preferred if Purdy is in the captain spot. McCaffrey qualifies as a pass catcher to pair with Purdy.

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Differentiation

Making highly projected lineups with smart correlations will separate you from the lowest level Showdown players, but there are many very smart casual players as well. Differentiation is the last step to separating pros from Joes.

In just about any NFL DFS GPP, finding low-owned gems is key because lower ownership reduces the field of lineups you’re competing against when the player has a 99th-percentile outcome. Taking it to the extreme, just as a thought exercise, let’s say that Breida scores 100 fantasy points tonight. You’re not just going to need him; you’ll need him in the captain spot (150 fantasy points). If 20,000 lineups in your contest have Breida in the captain spot, you’ve essentially reduced the field of lineups you’re competing with to 20,000. If only 200 lineups have Breida at captain, now we’re talking.

On NFL Showdown slates there is an additional factor for large-field GPPs. We don’t just want to find seldomly used players; we want to find seldomly used LINEUPS. Why? Well, I’ll give you two examples from 2021:

On Sept. 20, 2021, DraftKings had a Milly Maker for the Packers vs. Lions tilt, but the top lineup was duplicated 231 times. Rather than winning a million dollars, the users who entered those 231 lineups had to split the top 231 prizes, for just a bit over $6,000 each. That’s despite having everything go their way, which requires an extreme amount of luck.
On Oct. 11, 2021, we saw the other end of the spectrum: user rcoho1984 played a unique lineup in the Ravens vs. Colts Milly Maker, taking home not just a million dollars but a ticket to the Tournament of Champions.

If you’re going to win — which takes a lot of luck, regardless of how well your lineup projects — I’d suggest making it count. I’m not necessarily concerned with making an entirely unique lineup like rcoho1984 did every single time, but I aim to be a lot closer to their unique lineup than those that were duplicated 231 times.

Some Easy Tricks

Low-owned players. Yup, even if you are using other tricks to get unique, it is still a good idea to play a few players in some of your lineups who will not be getting much ownership. Some low-owned players to consider:

Gary Brightwell ($5,000) should be part of the Giants running back committee.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($200) has played in just six games since being drafted by the Giants in 2022 and should make his season debut tonight. Robinson’s potential workload is largely a guessing game at this point, but it doesn’t hurt him that the Giants have been awful in three of the four halves they’ve played so far, and a single splash play could pay off Robinson’s salary.
Jalin Hyatt ($5,200) has played just 39 snaps through two games, and he has seen just three targets. Still, his two catches have gone for a total of 89 yards. Hyatt clearly has splash play potential, and at some point the Giants should give him more opportunities.
Daniel Bellinger ($800) saw his route participation drop from 57% to 20% in Week 2, but a single touchdown for the tight end will pay off his salary.

Embrace lineups missing some correlation pieces or even with some negative correlation. Generally, highly correlated lineups will be over-owned, whereas the field will avoid negative correlation at all costs.

Quarterback against opposing defense.
Pass catcher at captain without including the quarterback at flex.
Multiple running backs from the same team in a lineup.

Leave salary on the table. This is the easiest way to lower your duplicates. Casual players assume that if they have salary left over, they should upgrade. The problem with this approach is that it almost inevitably leads to highly duplicated lineups. How much salary should you leave on the table? That is up to you. If it is less than $800 and you have not gotten extremely unique with player selections and weird correlations, it is likely you will have to split any winnings with many other entries.

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Author

Neil Orfield

Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.