The Week 10 NFL DFS main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel feature huge-money contests, and Stokastic’s initial run of player projections is live on the site. Let’s dig into the data and find out who the top NFL DFS running backs and fades may be for Sunday.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 10
The Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Eagles are on a bye this week, while the Colts, Patriots, Jets, Raiders, Broncos and Bills are all involved in the primetime and island games.
It’s an interesting week from an NFL DFS perspective with so many of the league’s best teams not involved on the main slate.
Initial Week 10 NFL player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel have been loaded up on Stokastic. Let’s see what the data is showing at various price ranges ahead of kickoff this Sunday.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Stokastic’s NFL DFS player projections and Week 10 boom and bust probabilities are quite the sight to behold at this point in the week, at least at the running back spot.
At time of writing, there are no backs above a 5% boom probability for the DraftKings NFL DFS slate. Tony Pollard is right near the top with the second-highest boom probability at 4.6% on DraftKings, and he’s number one on FanDuel at a 6.2% boom probability. For now, he’s showing in 15.5% of optimal lineups on DraftKings based on Stokastic’s simulations, and that number jumps to 20.6% over on FanDuel.
When we check out the Tony Pollard NFL Week 10 odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper, his rushing yards prop is at 70.5 yards, his receiving yards prop is at 20.5, and his anytime touchdown line is at -150. The Cowboys are implied for 27 points and are favored by a staggering 16 points, so this sets up as a favorable-looking spot for Pollard to have a spike week.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Alexander Mattison is currently showing near the top of boom probability ratings at the RB position for Week 10’s matchup against New Orleans, and as of now, he is hitting 16% of Stokastic’s optimal lineups at $5,500 on DraftKings and 15.3% of optimal lineups at $6,200 on FanDuel.
This is not the best matchup of all time against the Saints, and rushing efficiency has been an issue for the versatile back at times, but Mattison should continue to see a bulk of the work and get as much field time as he can handle, especially with Cam Akers now out for the season. We know he has a solid passing game role too, as Mattison just showed with 49 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown in Minnesota’s Week 9 win, the team’s fourth straight.
On the OddsShopper player prop pages for Week 10’s slate, Mattison has a rushing yards prop of 47.5 yards, receiving yards prop of 15.5 yards and an anytime TD line of +145 heading into this home encounter with New Orleans.
Other running backs rating out near the top of the pool on DraftKings NFL DFS include Joe Mixon against the Texans and Christian McCaffrey on the road versus the Jaguars. We highly recommend going through Stokastic’s full running back data to see what else stands out for Week 10.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
NFL DFS boom and bust probabilities measure how likely players are to meet their respective ceilings and floors relative to their median projections. For Week 10, let’s find out who may be sitting near the bottom of the pack as far as NFL DFS value goes.
Looking over the numbers, Gus Edwards is not projecting so well at $6,100 on DraftKings despite his recent surge in touchdowns, with Baltimore set to host a stingy Cleveland defense that’s surrendering the fewest yards (234.8 YPG) in the league going into Week 10. Projections are sure to fluctuate, but as of now, Edwards has a 95.7% bust probability at his middle-range DraftKings price tag. On FanDuel, Edwards has an 89.0% bust probability at a $6,700 salary.
The Gus Edwards odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper shows his rushing yards prop listed anywhere from 44.5 to 46.5 yards depending on the operator, and he has an anytime TD line of +140 for Week 10’s matchup.
Make sure to look through all of the running back DFS data to see what else stands out in projections.
As usual, there is some important injury news we are waiting on, so it will be critical to monitor any updates that come in all the way through Sunday to see if better NFL DFS picks and running back values open up before lock.
We should also remember that accurate NFL DFS player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
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NFL Boom/Bust Probability
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