The Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season. The column will break down key matchups for the most important players each week to provide tips for NFL DFS, player prop bettors and season-long fantasy football setting lineups on Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper and CBS. Let’s dive into the all the NFL DFS tips matchups and fantasy football lineup decisions.
Week 7 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups & Player Props
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford vs. Detroit Lions
The Rams have been on an absolute tear offensively, ranking fourth in points scored per play and first in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. They are fourth in PFF’s team offensive grade, and they are facing a Lions defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed per attempt and in PFF’s defensive coverage grade. As nearly 17-point favorites, the over on Stafford’s passing prop line of 287.5 yards is one of the easiest bets on the slate.
Davis Mills vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Texans have not been completely inept offensively over the last few weeks, playing New England particularly tough in Week 5, but they lost big in Week 6 against Indianapolis. While Mills has improved somewhat as a passer, the yardage increase over the course of the last few weeks has mostly been due to broken plays and more passing volume. As 17-point underdogs to the Cardinals, who rank sixth- best in the NFL in passing defense, betting the under on Mills’ passing prop line of 228.5 yards, a mark he has only reached twice, seems like one of the biggest no-brainer moves of the slate.
Running Backs
Chase Edmonds vs. Houston Texans
Edmonds has been bothered by a shoulder injury in recent weeks, and that limited his workload last weekend to just a 37% snap share. But even if used as a part-time player, earning roughly 60% of the backfield snaps, Edmonds can do plenty of damage against a Houston defense, who have proven quite exploitable by opposing running backs. Houston ranks well below-average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs, and they nearly gave up a 90-plus yard rushing score to Jonathan Taylor a week ago, but I particularly like Edmonds topping his receptions prop of 3.5 this weekend, with the Cardinals expected to cruise to 7-0 on the season.
Joe Mixon vs. Baltimore Ravens
Mixon played on just 61% of the Bengals’ snaps in Week 6 but had his best game of the season today, earning 18 carries and six targets. He turned that premium opportunity into premium production, with 153 total yards and a touchdown en route to the RB4 performance. This week many will consider it a week too late to bet on Mixon, especially facing a Baltimore defense that looks much improved over its last six quarters of play. But they are still ranked bottom 12 in the NFL over the last three weeks in yards allowed per carry. And while backup Samaje Perine is likely back in the fold this weekend for Cincinnati, his return should not affect Mixon’s re-ascension to an every-down running back. Smash the over on Mixon’s rushing prop of 56.5 yards.
Wide Receiver
Mecole Hardman vs. Tennessee Titans
Tyreek Hill is still bothered by a quad injury, Travis Kelce is not close to 100%, and the backfield is beaten up. Meanwhile, Hardman has seen 17 targets over his last two games and is facing a Titans defense that ranks third worst on the slate in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. Hardman makes for a fantastic bye week fill-in for season-long leagues and an equally good value play in DFS. The over on 44.5 yards receiving is an easy bet and looks like one of the best bets in the Awesemo Player Props Tool.
Rondale Moore, A.J. Green and Christian Kirk vs. Houston Texans
The Awesemo projections are identifying this spot as an ideal matchup for Cardinals receivers not named DeAndre Hopkins. While Hopkins scored over 20 PPR points in Week 6, he is highly touchdown reliant, while the Cardinals rank top three in yards per pass attempt and points per play. Moore’s receiving prop line sits at a modest 28.5 yards; Green’s line is 40.5, and Kirk’s line is 41.5 . The overs on all three are tempting, especially because the Awesemo Player Props Tool gives all three a 60%-plus probability of going over this weekend.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts vs. Miami Dolphins
It was exciting to see Pitts break out in Week 5 against the Jets. Pitts looked unstoppable against their porous secondary, constantly beating the Jets’ top-tier cornerbacks. Pitts now ranks top 10 at his position in target share, air yards share, targets per route run and red-zone targets, but even in a plus matchup against the Dolphins defense that ranks bottom 10 in yards allowed per attempt, Pitts should revert to a secondary receiver role with Calvin Ridley back. Pitts only has one game with over 50 yards receiving, so roll with the under on 49.5 yards receiving, which the Awesemo Player Props Tool suggests has 57% chance of occurring this Sunday.
Mark Andrews vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Andrews did not play his typical full snap share in Week 6 against the Chargers, running just 19 routes compared to 36 and 32 in Weeks 4 and 5, but that did not really affect his overall performance. He now has 19 targets over his last two games and has scored on three of them. In fact, despite ranking third at his position in target share, over 25% of Andrews’ targets the last three week have come from inside the 20. The touchdown upside is enormous, but Week 5’s yardage total was anomalous. Hitting 61.5 yards receiving against a mediocre Bengals’ defense seems possible but not probable. While Andrews has hit that mark three times already this season, he only reached 62 yards receiving four times all of last season. Take the under.
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