The Falcons march into Dallas for a Week 2 matchup that could feature plenty of fireworks from both offenses. Can Dak Prescott keep the Cowboys from falling to an 0-2 start? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Falcons – Cowboys.
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Atlanta Falcons (23.75) at Dallas Cowboys (29) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Atlanta Falcons Breakdown
Atlanta came out aggressively on offense but flat on defense, and Russell Wilson took advantage in Week 1. The Falcons defense seemed to have no answer for the Seahawks offense and appeared to be a squad inexplicably focused on stopping the run game, thus allowing a monster passing game from their Week 1 opponent. As they head to Dallas, Week 2 appears to be more of the same defensively, which could mean the same ridiculous pass volume for this Falcons offense. Julio Jones had his typical monster day receiving, but it was the performances of Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, who each saw 11 targets en route to quality scoring outputs, that surprised fantasy gamers. Gage left off right where he did last year after Mohamed Sanu left town and seems to have a firm grasp on the No. 3 receiving role ahead of Hayden Hurst. Hurst wasn’t completely overlooked himself, however, also seeing six targets. This is one of the pass-heaviest offenses, very possibly playing in a negative game script. It makes sense why many are targeting this offense in DFS, as there are many scenarios where two or more Falcons reach their ceiling score this week.
Todd Gurley, though used sparingly in the second half of Week 1 as the Falcons shifted almost entirely towards passing, still saw a healthy 15 touches, including six high-value touches (goal-line carries or targets). Gurley doesn’t have the game-breaking speed and agility he once had, but 8-10 high-value touches aren’t out of the question for him any week. Brian Hill and Ito Smith, the Falcons’ second and third backs behind Gurley, were used infrequently, earning a total of five high-value touches. The backfield is Gurley’s if his legs can handle it.
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Dallas Cowboys Breakdown
The Cowboys fell short of completing a fourth quarter comeback, in part due to a questionable offensive pass interference call. They come into this game determined to avoid slipping to 0-2 in a season where many believe they have the most talented roster in their division. The offense was quite aggressive in Week 1, ranking fifth in true neutral early-down pass rate, an indicator that they plan on pushing the ball downfield to their receivers and not just later downs. Prescott wasn’t particularly efficient as a passer, ranking in the bottom third in the NFL in expected pointed added per drive and in-drive scoring rate. He’ll need to convert drives to scores at a significantly higher rate if the Cowboys are to be consistently competitive, especially this week, matched up against a Falcons team that can absolutely match them point for point.
Amari Cooper earned the typical No. 1 receiver’s workload, capturing nearly 40% of the Cowboys weighted opportunity share. As expected, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb were next on the list, earning 18% and 16%, respectively, of the passing volume. With the season-ending injury to Blake Jarwin, this should lock in a consistent receiving floor for the options behind Cooper, particularly Gallup. Both make fantastic stacking options this weekend despite high expected ownership projections. Ezekiel Elliott can be a foundational piece of any fantasy football lineup. Particularly as a home favorite in a game with massive shootout potential, he remains an elite play at the running back position this week.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Falcons 27
Alternative Scenario: A turnover-prone Prescott shows up on Sunday, and the Falcons capitalize on the mistakes. Matt Ryan gets hot early, and Gurley shuts the door. Falcons 31, Cowboys 24.
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