In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of our boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points about their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Wednesday, March 4th.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
NBA DFS Picks: Boom Candidates
Marcus Smart at Cleveland Cavaliers: DraftKings: PG/SG, $7,000, 34.9% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $6,500, 56.5% Boom
Again, this is written up in the morning, but it looks like the Celtics could be a bit shorthanded tonight. We already know that Kemba Walker will sit out, which opens up some usage in the backcourt, along with Gordon Hayward and Jaylen Brown. Marcus Smart has commanded a 26.2 percent usage rate over the past four weeks with these three players off the floor. Facing a poor Cleveland team, it’s easy to see what Smart could absolutely boom today.
Luka Doncic vs New Orleans Pelicans: DraftKings: PG, $10,900, 33.2% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $10,400, 45.3% Boom
The Pelicans are on the second leg of a back-to-back, after an up-and-down, high-scoring loss to the Timberwolves last night. Dallas has had a day of rest and return home following a four-game road trip. Aside from possible tired legs, the Pelicans don’t know how to play defense, which is good news for Luka Doncic. He is a legitimate triple-double threat every time he steps on the floor, and he should face little resistance from the defense tonight.
Kevin Porter Jr. vs Boston Celtics: DraftKings: SG/SF, $5,300, 35.5% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $5,000, 50.9% Boom
As stated above, the Celtics could be pretty short-handed today, which creates an easier matchup for the rookie Kevin Porter Jr. Darius Garland is out again for Cleveland tonight, so Porter is expected to stay in the starting lineup. He played 41 minutes last game and put up a fair 16/4/4 stat line last game. He will be given every opportunity to outperform his value yet again.
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NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates
Tim Hardaway Jr. vs New Orleans Pelicans: DraftKings: SG/SF, $6,500, 69.0% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $5,800, 42.1% Bust
Dallas has had their top two scorers, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, either banged up or out of the lineup recently, but both are back tonight. It’s tough for Tim Hardaway Jr. to get much going when he is on the floor with those two, with Hardaway having a 18.1 percent usage in this scenario. His ability to “boom” is certainly hurt, which makes the possibility that he busts have that much more weight.
Brandon Ingram at Dallas Mavericks: DraftKings: SF/PF, $7,900, 49.9% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $7,800, 38.1% Bust
Brandon Ingram’s price has continued to creep back up, which makes the likelihood that he busts higher. He is also on the second leg of a back-to-back, after busting in a high-scoring game against Minnesota. There simply are too many weapons now on the floor with Ingram for him to consistently perform the way he did early in the season.
Jonas Valanciunas at Brooklyn Nets: DraftKings: C, $7,800, 60.3% Bust | FanDuel: C, $7,100, 31.2% Bust
The bust probability entirely depends on which site you play on today. On FanDuel, Jonas Valanciunas saw a $100 decrease in salary, while he became $1,000 more expensive on DraftKings. At his current DK salary, he would have busted in five of his past seven games. Jo-Val may also lose a few minutes to Anthony Tolliver, who made his Memphis debut last game. Like stated above, the big man’s bust probability on DK may have more weight than his boom probability, due to his spike in salary.
