It’s Wednesday and we have our usual big slate for NBA DFS picks with one reality TV show-esque twist: So many teams are on a back-to-back tonight. The end result is that tonight may be feel more like an April NBA DFS slate than one at this point of the season with many undermanned teams playing unknown quantities for high minutes loads. I’ll explain more about all of the pertinent situations below. Follow me on Twitter to make sure you don’t miss any of my content! And now let’s get into all of it with the March 4 Switch and Hedge.
So, Uh, Who’s Playing For Boston?
Jayson Tatum reportedly didn’t travel to Cleveland (UPDATE: Apparently he’s now probable and will get there on his own…that makes him a strong play today barring news about a minutes limit. He’ll soak up a ton of usage and could have an outlier day.), Gordon Hayward hurt himself yesterday, Kemba Walker has already been ruled out, and Jaylen Brown also was hurt at the end of the game against Brooklyn and is now ruled out. So who’ll be available for Boston tonight against the Cavs? It seems like Brad Wanamaker and Javonte Green will be popular plays as two guys who theoretically could take on some more usage. Marcus Smart also should be able to do whatever he wants with his usual questionable amount of success thanks to 38% shooting on the year. Carsen Edwards hasn’t done much this year but could theoretically take on more scoring, same for Grant Williams at near-minimum salary. Whichever Celtics are available tonight will be worth some exposure just based upon the gigantic hole of usage left behind against Cleveland’s 113.8 defensive rating. Consider this an early preview of April NBA DFS where everything is a question mark.
Cleveland also has their own questions at Center with Andre Drummond out again and Tristan Thompson currently questionable. Larry Nance saw 39 minutes last game with both out and would be in a fine situation against this depleted Celtics squad. His price is up but 43 FP versus Utah is a good sign. Kevin Love also saw 32 minutes and 25% usage thanks to the lack of bigs and probably Darius Garland’s absence as well. With Garland out again, Love looks playable at his price. Collin Sexton hung 50.25 FP on Utah with 25% usage in 39 minutes with no Garland as well. He’s in play again after that performance, his best fantasy game ever. Kevin Porter played 41 minutes last game and his price isn’t up. He looks good once again. Same for Cedi Osman who played 39 minutes. Even Matthew Dellavedova picked up 29 minutes. This situation looks like a good one for both sides with depleted rosters all around.
A Night Of Many NBA DFS Back To Backs
Besides Boston, Oklahoma City is on a back-to-back at Detroit. Danilo Gallinari and Dennis Schroder look fine at their prices but it’s hard to love much in this game against another slow paced team in Detroit. Maybe Nerlens Noel sees a little more run against a weak team on the back-to-back at a very cheap price. Detroit’s side also looks like an absolute mess with Derrick Rose out and Bruce Brown unlikely to play. Svi Mykhailiuk played 39 minutes last game while Brandon Knight and Langston Galloway had decent usage off the bench. I’m less inclined for Christian Wood’s elevated price tag but he did put up 52 FP versus OKC the last time they played.
Brooklyn is also on a back-to-back after Caris LeVert singlehandedly outscored Boston down the stretch yesterday. They play Memphis at home and it’s hard to not want some of LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie in particular despite the potential of a letdown game. Memphis’s pace remains high even though their defense has improved to get them down to a 108 defensive rating. It’s hard to see LeVert not be a bit drained after a 51 real-life point game yesterday but the pace-up and a reasonable price gives him a chance to tap into that ceiling once again. But, if he fails, Dinwiddie certainly has a higher probability to do more. Same for the Taurean Prince and Joe Harris who stand to see a little more run with Gary Temple knocked out. Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton look to have the best prices for Memphis but Melton’s usage is iffy in the starting group and Brooks isn’t as good as Denzel Valentine, as proven after Live Before Lock the other night, so neither seems like a must have.
The Minutes Limited Bulls Face Another Back-To-Back Team In Minnesota
Zach LaVine will be out again while Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter, and Wendell Carter will all play with minutes limits around 20. I don’t know how you can play anyone here as a result. The starters here will be informative. Porter came off the bench as he returned to the lineup last game while Carter has started since he returned. Markkanen starting would hurt Thaddeus Young’s prospects but, if he comes off the bench, we could see more quality usage for the cheap Denzel Valentine. Valentine put up 15 shots in just 21 minutes of court time, good for 33.6% usage and 27.5 FP. Coby White was his direct backup and that puts his chance at more minutes to be somewhat unlikely. Valentine would be more playable if Markkanen comes off the bench but, unfortunately, seems mostly like a player to not own much . Tomas Satoransky seems like he should be a better play with his minutes still secure around 30 but with all the moving pieces around him, it’s hard to love him. White may be the only guy to trust despite a killer matchup against fast-paced and defensively awful Minnesota.
D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley look like the best options for Minnesota. I also don’t mind Juan Hernangomez and Naz Reid at their price tags, though the latter looks like he’ll be a highly owned play today after he hung 46.5 FP on New Orleans yesterday. He’s been good on a per-minute basis but his foul issues make him a perpetual risk whenever he’s highly owned.
New Orleans, Who’s On A Back-To-Back, Heads To Dallas
The NBA schedulers must have something against March 4th with this high number of back-to-backs but New Orleans brings a high total to theirs at Dallas. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson look to be at good prices but I’d like confirmation the latter will play on the back-to-back before diving in headfirst. I’m not in love with Jrue Holiday or Lonzo Ball’s prices but both guys have big upside, as they showed yesterday with 61.5 and 52.75 FP respectively. There’s never a day I won’t like New Orleans but after they ran a ton against Minnesota yesterday, there’s some potential for a letdown at Dallas.
Luka Doncic looks like solid chalk in this fast-paced spot. He’s had 65 and 61 FP versus New Orleans this year and was only down to 49 FP the last time he played them due to them blowing the Pelicans out at home. It’s hard to not like Luka even after he disappointed at high ownership versus slow paced Chicago the other night. Kristaps Porzingis’s price is tougher to justify but he’s been over 49.25 FP in five out of his last six games. I don’t think I’d get there much but he’s an interesting tournament play with practically no ownership expected his way.
Portland And Washington, On A Back-To-Back, Get The NBA DFS Slate’s Highest Combined Total
Our last back-to-back team of the night in Washington heads to Portland for a game with an NBA DFS slate-high 241 combined total. Almost everyone in this game seems too expensive to play. Bradley Beal can pay off his price tag with over 50.75 FP in his last six games but he’s almost at Luka’s salary. That makes him an interesting tournament pivot but not a guy I’d prioritize. CJ McCollum is still mostly priced up for his time without Damian Lillard while Lillard is still priced up for his pre-injury hot run. Maybe Hassan Whiteside makes sense with his price tag staying static. Overall, it seems like the mid-priced guys like Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans or fringe guys like Mo Wagner or Jerome Robinson may be more useful as value than it is to go to the core guys with how expensive they are across the board.
Around The Rest Of The NBA DFS Slate
- Aaron Gordon is expected back for Orlando so the glory of our last “Lock In Nikola Vucevic Day” is now behind us if he’s in. Both guys are at playable prices but it’s a slow matchup against Miami with two mostly competent defenses. The game will largely go overlooked thanks to both teams’ defensive reputations so taking guys like Vuc, Gordon, or Jimmy Butler interests me somewhat with not much ownership expected for them. Vuc would also be closer to a priority play for me if Gordon misses, though the matchup with Bam Adebayo is more of a concern.
- The Knicks looked solid against Houston when not starting controversies with Spike Lee but I’m less inclined to go back to them thanks to the matchup with Utah tonight. Utah seems priced up for the game so I don’t foresee having much on either side. Rudy Gobert could be in play at Center but besides that maybe a little bit of Julius Randle or Elfrid Payton is all I can stomach.
- Milwaukee’s side looks better to me than Indiana’s in their divisional battle tonight. Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe are priced well and Giannis Antetokounmpo has some appeal any time a Bucks game looks like it’ll hang close. But on a slate this big, I can’t imagine I’d prioritize their guys too much more than the field’s ownership.
