NFL DFS Picks: FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Projections Today

Anyone who read the DraftKings version of this column knows that the Super Bowl is lining up to be an excellent contest to round out the NFL DFS season. A variety of thoughts exist about the game, expectations range from a Los Angeles pass-rush onslaught chopping the Bengals’ excellent offense down to size to a high-scoring shootout that sees defense fall by the wayside. Either way, there should be numerous pathways to creating high-scoring FanDuel single-game lineups for the Super Bowl slate. The site allows for much more of a play-anyone construction than what is available across town, where the points multiplier spot also costs a salary multiplier. In FanDuel NFL DFS Showdown contests the multiplier is free, making it possible to roster any premium skill option, or either quarterback, in the role without a negative downstream impact on potential lineup combinations. This changes the nature of how lineups come together when compared to the more interesting game on the other side of the industry. Quarterback MVP plays are more frequently optimal on FanDuel, and rostering the most likely top scorers in the multiplier spot is an easy, yet chalky, approach. Differentiating lineups is more difficult on the FanDuel slate because of this, creating a bit of a decision point where gamers can focus on less likely construction paths to gain significant leverage on the field in massive scale tournaments. Making one or two deliberately differentiated decisions could be a tournament-winning move on any given Sunday, on Super Bowl Sunday where public lineups will presumably be more pedestrian, victory yields a payday worthy of embracing risk in lineup building.

This article is dedicated to FanDuel builds, a DraftKings-specific version is available separately. This space focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within Fantasy Cruncher. All of the concepts and pairings included below can be applied to hand-building as well, the goal is to create lineups that have high scoring correlation and take advantage of combined outcomes within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

Fantasy Cruncher – New How-To Video

The uptick in questions related to the how-to aspects of Fantasy Cruncher along with several noteworthy new tools demanded a new how-to tutorial video. I put together the above review of all of Fantasy Cruncher’s advanced options with some basic how-to on the constructions, rules, limits, and groups that we use in this article. The tutorial also reviews all of Fantasy Cruncher’s new features and the important distinctions between the various sets of projections that are available.

NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks & Projections

NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Groups for FanDuel – Super Bowl Sunday Showdown Slate

FanDuel Lineup Notes

While we do not have the dataset of winning lineups for FanDuel that we do for DraftKings, some conclusions can be drawn from trends that have been visible throughout the year in reviewing single-game contest lineups from that site. While the most important trend of quarterbacks having more value in flex roles has no bearing on FanDuel contests, we can still expect similar upside trending toward the passing game in general. The focus of lineup building can safely land on quarterbacks and pass-catchers, with running backs playing a more limited role and kickers serving only as cost and popularity offsetting options.

The FanDuel slate is shaped differently in Awesemo’s Top Plays tools. While Rams’ receiver Cooper Kupp stands as the most frequently optimal MVP play, the degree to which he is optimal extends further overall than on the other site. He is the most frequent top scorer on FanDuel with a 36.9% probability mark, making him easily the top option in the multiplier spot. That much is obvious to anyone who watched football this season, let alone sharp NFL DFS players. Getting to Kupp in differentiated lineups is the trick, every conceivable iteration of a Kupp MVP lineup will be probably be covered by the public, but there will be a massive focus on only a few popular constructions, with the probability of duplication thinning out somewhat rapidly. Leaving salary on the table is one approach to differentiating a lineup, while playing some of the less-likely dart throw options is another way to tackle it. Either requires embracing risk in lineup construction, which is critical in building a unique lineup with tournament-winning upside.

Outside of Kupp, the two quarterbacks are the next-most frequent top scorers on the slate, but they are both outpaced by Cincinnati receiver Ja’Marr Chase, in optimal lineup appearance rate. Chase lands in the top lineup in 13.3% of Awesemo’s simulated FanDuel slates, making him the second-most frequently optimal player on the site. Chase also comes with positive leverage on this slate, making him an even more appealing option in the multiplier position, where he will be owned by a projected 11.3% of the field. Both of the quarterbacks come at negative leverage in the Captain role, while Tee Higgins, Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson Jr., and C.J. Uzomah are all carrying positive leverage at a variety of less-probable top-scoring and optimal lineup appearance marks. Most of those options are more positively leveraged and more frequently optimal in flex roles, but with the ability to differentiate massive-field tournament lineups at a premium, considering any or all of them in combinations of MVP and flex spots is a must.

Another basic requirement should be the inclusion of at least one quarterback, simply based on the probability of one or both landing in the top two to five in scoring. In Awesemo’s Top Plays tool, Matthew Stafford is pulling in a 70.7% probability of being one of the top two to five scorers, while Joe Burrow has a 66.9% likelihood of landing in that scoring tier. Bengals running back Joe Mixon is another high-probability option in the flex roles. Mixon warrants consideration in the MVP spot as well, but he is the most negatively leveraged play on the board in that role. The dynamic running back lands as the optimal MVP play in 5.3% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, but he is projected for 9.6% ownership. Mixon is the top scorer on the slate in 7.1% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, which does not seem like enough to chase at his negative leverage scores. Undercutting the field’s ownership on the Cincinnati running back is another approach to differentiating a portfolio of FanDuel Super Bowl lineups.

FanDuel Stack Rules

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team (this will happen naturally in most Showdown constructions, but including the rule will eliminate lineups that feature only an opposing kicker or quarterback)

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (this will happen naturally in a large portion of lineups, but stacking quarterbacks with pass catchers is the easiest way to rack up NFL DFS points. It makes sense to include this rule to force the build, in most situations)

Limit Rules

Limit rules are slightly less important for Showdown slates as there are only two teams to choose from. They are still useful for preventing suboptimal constructions, however. Including the following will help prevent these less likely builds.

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE/DST/K from Same Team to three unless paired with Captain

Limit K from Same Game to one

Construction Basics

We will utilize Fantasy Cruncher’s Groups utility to create specific builds. The Groups feature includes the ability to designate players as the key to the group, or the player whose use in a position will trigger the group requirements. For Showdown slates this can be utilized to force specific sets of players or positions along with each type of designated Captain. The example below shows a group that utilizes Ja’Marr Chase in the MVP role as the key player. It will then force all constructions featuring Chase in the MVP role to include at least three of the players from a group that includes both quarterbacks and positively leveraged options on both sides.

NFL DFS Optimizer Groups & Picks

Unlike multi-game slates, when attacking individual potential game scripts, these groups are better deployed individually for separate crunches that can then be combined into a single pool of lineups. Running them all at once is likely to create conflicting scenarios that will either prevent or limit a full crunch.

Quarterback Inclusion

With the quarterback salary not limiting lineup construction in the multiplier spot, this can be handled by adding a rule that forces the inclusion of a quarterback, regardless of role, in every lineup. This will create lineups with quarterbacks in both the MVP and flex positions in a variety of constructions, as with any other positional requirement. A group is not needed here, but one could be created that forces a quarterback in the flex spot with any skill player in the MVP role.

NFL DFS Game Script – Differentiating Captain Kupp

Key Player(s): Cooper Kupp – MVP version

Setting: at least three

Group: Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Van Jefferson Jr., Odell Beckham Jr., Tee Higgins, C.J. Uzomah, Cam Akers, Tyler Boyd, Darrell Henderson, Samaje Perine, Kendall Blanton, Matt Gay, Evan McPherson

This group repeats a concept from the DraftKings version of this column in simply looking for differentiation with lineups that land the chalkiest play of the day in the multiplier spot. Rams’ wide receiver Cooper Kupp is the most optimal play in the role, he is the most likely top scorer on the slate, and he is easily going to be the most popular play in the multiplier spot. The dynamic star deserves his fair share of roster spots and then some, but building in positive leverage and generally low ownership in a variety of combinations that retain scoring upside is important. This group forces four players from a list that includes both quarterbacks and the most positively leveraged or purely low-owned skill players from both teams that also have a shred of probability of landing in the top two to five in fantasy point scoring.

Latest NFL DFS Content

NFL DFS Concept – Differentiating QB MVPs

Key Player(s): Joe Burrow & Matthew Stafford – MVP versions

Setting: at least three

Group: Van Jefferson Jr., Odell Beckham Jr., Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, Kendall Blanton, Samaje Perine, Ben Skowronek, Joe Mixon, Cam Akers

This group attempts to add some leverage to lineups that land the popular quarterbacks in the multiplier positions. The MVP role does not change the salary paradigm in FanDuel lineup builds, allowing for extremely chalky construction paths that will lead to highly duplicated lineups. By forcing four of the options from a list that includes all of the positively leveraged pass-catchers and several running back options, the hope is to capture some of the less popular builds while leaving room for one of the two premium star receivers in the remaining lineup spot.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.