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NFL DFS Stacks: Bills & Bengals Among Highest Projections For Week 11

Geoff Ulrich



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Week 11 has seen some big movements in terms spreads and totals. The Bills – Browns game has been moved to a stadium in Detroit and now projects with a game total of 50.0 points and a spread of -8/+8. There is also have a potential shootout brewing in Atlanta where the Bears are 3.0 underdogs in a game with a 49.5 game total. The Ravens are the biggest favorites on the slate at -13.0 over the Panthers in a game with just a 41.5 total. While there’s a lot of interesting places to stack for leverage purposes in GPPs the Stokastic Top Stacking Tool does have a clear cut favorite today, perhaps its biggest of the season. We’ll get to that play and more NFL DFS stacks below.

This article will use the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to gain leverage on the field, either through ownership or by rostering the other side of the game on a popular stack. Here are some of the top opportunities for Week 11 below based on where they stand in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections.

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Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 11 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Top NFL DFS Stack: Buffalo Bills

The Bills have had an up-and-down past couple of weeks. It looked like they might lose Josh Allen for an extended period of time and then appeared as if they may have to play this week in blinding snowstorm conditions. Luckily for Buffalo (and us) the Bills high-flying offense will be in the comfort of a dome environment in Week 11 (with the game moved to Detroit) and are projecting as off the chart favorites for DFS stacking purposes. The Bills have a 24.5% probability of ending the week as the top stack and face off against a Browns team who rank sixth-last in defensive DVOA against the pass.

While the pace of this game was cause for concern prior to the change in venues, Cleveland has been climbing the pace charts all season and now rank 14th in pace of play, while Buffalo ranks 5th. This should be a back-and-forth game where Allen pushes for 35+ drop backs, which means it’s also a great spot to take advantage of some low ownership on Gabriel Davis, who is projecting with just 5.3% ownership as of writing on Stokastic. While Stefon Diggs projects as the top play at his position this week, Allen-Diggs combos will be some of the most popular on the slate. Going for a double WR Bills lineup, with both Diggs and Davis, will create more unique builds and there’s plenty of ways to get access to lower ownership on Cleveland’s side as well, with the likes of Amari Cooper and Donavan Peoples-Jones both projecting for well under 5% ownership.

Playing the Bills this week won’t be unique, but you can build around them in numerous ways which makes them an elite spot for DFS. The projections say this is one of the best spots of the year so getting exposure in GPP builds should be at the top of your list for Week 11.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 24.5%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 11.4%

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Top Low-Owned NFL DFS Stacks: Cincinnati Bengals 

The Bengals are another team with great WRs to target, and a team that is projecting strongly in Week 11 for stacking purposes. Cincinnati has the fourth highest probability of ending the week as the top stack but they also have much lower ownership across their skill positions than the top few stacks on the slate. With the move of the Buffalo game out of the snow and Justin Fields gaining so much public attention, Joe Burrow seems likely to come in with less than 5% ownership in a great matchup against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers rank out fourth last in yards per attempt allowed this season and have already ceded two, four TD performances to opposing QBs this year. Burrow famously turned the ball over five times against Pittsburgh in Week 1 but since then has thrown for 16 TDs vs. just 2 INTs and should be the mood for some quick revenge. Top WR Tee Higgins has also dominated this match-up going for 100+ yards and a TD twice in four career games against the Steelers. Despite a solid projection, though, and great matchup, Higgins isn’t projecting to be a top-five owned player at his position this week making Burrow-Higgins an elite starting point which shouldn’t be overly popular in bigger field GPPs.

Tyler Boyd has also shown increased upside this year, averaging 14.5 yards per catch and 9.7 aDOT, which are both career highs. The other side of this game also has ways for us to complete a full game stack with a lower owned and easy to fit in George Pickens, likely making for the best upside value on the Steelers. With a lower game total set at 40.0, this one has a lot of variance attached to it, but if the Bengals passing game clicks Pittsburgh has the weapons to push this game into a higher scoring affair and put pressure on the Bengals offense to keep scoring. It’s projecting as a strong contrarian game for NFL DFS stacks this week.

Stokastic Top NFL DFS Stacks Projection: 7.0%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 4.8%

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Tournament Leverage NFL DFS Stack: Atlanta Falcons

The QB ownership on Justin Fields this week will be through the roof (he’s projecting for over 12% ownership) so taking a look at the other side of this game for NFL DFS stacking purposes makes sense. The Bears have yielded plenty of big yardage games to opposing QBs on the ground this year, with both Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones going for over 30 yards rushing and a TD against them. Marcus Mariota may not have the pure upside of Fields, but he’s also $2,100 cheaper on DraftKings and has averaged an elite 6.3 carries and 34.7 rush yards per game this year.

Mariota’s upside is likely getting overlooked in this spot and while his receivers have been a disappointment for most of the year, he is attached to come elite names at both WR and TE. Drake London is coming off a five catch and a TD performance but it’s Kyle Pitts who makes for the true homerun play in this spot. The sentiment on Pitts can’t get any lower as he’s converted just four of his last 15 targets into catches. Pitts is getting plenty of downfield targeting, though, with an elite team air yards share of 33.1% and aDOT of 13.7. Using him with Mariota gives you access to an insanely low owned pairing and some cheap leverage to counteract what will be very high ownership on the other side.

Finally, if you’re looking for a way to maintain some exposure to Chicago and Fields’ upside, using Darnell Mooney on the other side (who has an elite 27% team target share) makes perfect sense in this spot. He’s going against a Falcons secondary who has allowed the most fantasy points, per game, to the WR position in 2022.

Stokastic Top NFL DFS Stacks Projection: 4.0%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 3.8%

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