NFL DFS Week 5 First Look: Breece Hall Ready to Take Over as Jets' RB1 But Still Has RB2 Salary (October 9)

On tap for Sunday is a full slate of 12 games. This NFL DFS first look article takes an early look at the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel and breaks down some of the best options at each major position.

NFL First Look: Week 5 NFL DFS Picks

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Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. ARI ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)

Hurts is in the midst of an incredible season. Not only has he been extremely efficient through the air — ranking first in yards per pass attempt (9.1) — Hurts has been seen incredible usage as a rusher, with 53 carries through his first four starts of the season. To put into perspective how elite this is, Lamar Jackson ranks second among quarterbacks with 37. To add more fuel to the fire, 16 of Hurts’ carries have come in the red zone, which is tied for the most in the NFL with running back Joe Mixon. This unbelievable workload on the ground combined his role as a passer has helped Hurts contribute 27.3 DraftKings points per game and his ascension to fantasy stardom is almost guaranteed to continue in this juicy matchup with the Cardinals. So far this season, Arizona is allowing the eighth most yards per pass attempt (7.4) and they are the worst-graded defense on PFF. The Eagles boast the third-highest implied team total on the slate (27.5 points), and this game’s total is the largest on the board (49.5 points). Hurts’ ceiling is over 40 fantasy points in this spot, and he is a must-play for all formats.

Tom Brady, TB vs. ATL ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

In his first start alongside Chris Godwin and Mike Evans this season, Brady looked like his old self this past Sunday night, throwing for 385 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs. Despite playing three games without his full arsenal of weapons, Brady has six touchdowns to one interception and is PPF’s eighth-highest graded quarterback this season. For his second start of the year with his top two receivers available, Brady faces the Falcons at home this Sunday. The Buccaneers present the second-highest implied team total on the slate (28.5 points) and this matchup’s total is the second largest on the slate (48.5 points). Brady is supplying 23.4 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points since joining Tampa Bay and is a smart pay-down option this week that shouldn’t be overly popular given the Buccaneers’ disappointing start to the season.

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Running Backs

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. CLE ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

In a prime matchup against the Browns — who are the fifth-worst-graded defense on PFF — Ekeler is a great high-end target. This season, he has handled 11.3 carries per game — which is 55.6% of the Chargers’ running back carries — including six red zone attempts. As always, Ekeler has also handled a large role as a receiver, running a route of 55% of his team’s dropbacks and obtaining a target on an eye-popping 31% of his routes. Facing this soft Cleveland defense, the Chargers are tied for the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate (25.5 points). Plus, they are 3-point favorites, and this game’s total is the third largest on the board (47.5 points). When competing as a favorite over the last two seasons, Ekeler has provided 23.4 DraftKings points per game, surpassing 20 DraftKings points in 9 of 14 starts.

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. CHI ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)

Cook’s salaries have hit a new season low on both DraftKings and FanDuel, just in time for this gorgeous matchup against the Bears. While the results haven’t been jaw dropping, Cook’s role has remained immense this season and he should produce a season-best performance against this Chicago defense that is surrendering the third-most yards per rush (5.1). He has garnered 15.6 carries per game — which is 76% of the Vikings’ running back carries — including five red zone attempts, while playing 67% of his team’s snaps. Furthermore, Cook has run a route on 53% of his team’s dropbacks and gained a target on 13% of his routes. This Sunday, the Vikings are tied for the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate (25.5 points) and are 7-point home favorites. As a home favorite, Cook is averaging 21 DraftKings points per game for his career (25 games).

Breece Hall, NYJ vs. MIA ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)

Hall appears to have surpassed Michael Carter as the Jets’ top back. For the second week in a row, Hall played more snaps than Carter this past Sunday. In the win over the Steelers, Hall played 66% of the snaps and led New York with 17 carries, both which set new career highs. Hall also ran a route in 63% of dropbacks and saw a target on 24% of his routes. Hall posted a career-best 15.8 DraftKings points with this role and has now scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game this season. Overall, he is averaging a strong 1.04 DraftKings points per touch this season. Especially coming off a win, Hall should close to 20 touches again this Sunday against the Dolphins. This game has the eighth-highest total on the slate (44.5 points), and Hall should effortlessly beat his current salaries in this setting, which very well could be the lowest price tags he sees for the rest of the season.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk, JAX vs. HOU ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)

After being held in check against a tough Eagles defense in brutal weather conditions this past Sunday, Kirk should bounce back in a big way against the Texans. Compared to Philadelphia, who is the second-best-graded defense on PFF this season, Houston is the sixth worst. In this juicy spot, the Jaguars sport the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (25.75 points) and Kirk is without a doubt the best way to gain exposure to the club. He ranks ninth in the league in target share (30.3%) and fifth in red zone targets (8), while running a route on 94% of his team’s dropbacks. Kirk had scored at least 19 DraftKings points in his first three starts of the season before last week and is a strong bet for over 20 fantasy points this Sunday.

Chris Godwin, TB vs. ATL ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Pairing Brady with Godwin has a ton of merit this week and shouldn’t be a common stack in GPPs. In his season debut this past Sunday, Godwin ran a route on 85% of dropbacks and racked up 10 targets, including a red zone look. Over the last two seasons, Godwin has been Brady’s main target when active, seeing a target on a team-best 21% of his routes run, including a jaw dropping 28 red zone targets in a 16-game sample. Godwin is averaging 17.4 DraftKings points per game over this time and is an affordable way to gain a share of the Buccaneers’ massive team total this Sunday, which as noted above, is the second highest on the slate (28.5 points).

Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. NO ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)

Lockett is simply too cheap for his compelling role. He has run a route on 90% of his team’s dropbacks and seen a target on a team-best 27% of those routes. As a deep threat, Lockett leads Seattle in air yards (392) and has garnered five targets greater than 20 yards. While the Saints are a solid defensive group — rating as the 12th-highest-graded defense on PFF — this matchup’s total ranks sixth on the slate (46) and the Seahawks should be forced into a pass centric gameplan, as 6-point underdogs. Lockett is averaging 16.5 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 occasions he has competed in a total of at least 45 points and is an appealing mid-tier target at these current price points.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. ARI ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

The Cardinals have been the ultimate matchup for tight ends this season, making Goedert a terrific option to stack with Hurts. Through the first four weeks, this Arizona defense has yielded the second-most catches (28), second-most yards (341) and third-most touchdowns to the tight end position (3). Goedert ranks 11th among tight ends in target share (17%) — including three red zone targets — while running a route on 83% of dropbacks. Goedert has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in three straight starts and is one of the best choices at tight end, with both Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews off the main slate.

Logan Thomas, WAS vs. TEN ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

With tight end so thin for the main slate, rolling the dice on a cheap player like Thomas is a smart move. This season, the tight end has run a route on 63% of his team’s dropbacks and collected a target on 15% of those routes, including two red zone targets and one target over 20 yards. With Jahan Dotson (hamstring) likely out this Sunday, Thomas’ role should grow even further, and this matchup is stellar, with the Titans allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.7) and fifth-most receptions to tight ends (22).

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