NFL DFS Week 5 Value Picks: Josh Allen is the BEST VALUE PLAY for the Week 5 Slate (October 9)

Already a month through the new NFL season, we dive into Week 5 looking to capitalize on observations from these opening four weeks. Combine Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are best point-per-dollar while utilizing NFL DFS ownership projections to understand the leverage of these plays.

Week 5 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

DraftKings Quarterback: Tom Brady – $6,000

Coming off his best game of the season after producing 29.4 DraftKings points against the Kansas City Chiefs, Tom Brady now faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that we’ve targeted in the past when selecting quarterbacks. This matchup features the second-highest game total (48.0), and Tampa Bay holds the second-highest implied total (28) on the slate. Priced as QB10, Brady projects for QB6 production in Stokastic’s rankings, making him a slightly preferred point-per-dollar play. Aside from his enticing individual projection, he also comes with elite stacking options at all of the flex positions. The Falcons defense has had its biggest struggles against opposing tight ends, allowing 19.4 DraftKings points to the position, while opposing wide receivers have racked up 42.4 points per contest. With both marks ranking well below league average, this is a matchup and team to target heavily.

FanDuel Quarterback: Josh Allen – $9,000

When thinking of value plays, one typically focuses on players with middling salaries or those who project for increased opportunity due to injury at their position. Josh Allen falls into neither of these categories, yet he is far and away the best value play on the slate in FanDuel this week. The Bills enter Week 5 with the highest implied total (31) on the slate and are coming off a gritty comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens. Allen enters averaging over 30 fantasy points per contest and will now get a Steelers defense that has struggled against pedestrian offenses since losing T.J. Watt. With a salary set at $9,000, the fact that Allen carries a value rating of 3.04 is astonishing and makes him one of the safest cash plays on the board.

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Running Back: Rhamondre Stevenson – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

Entering Week 5 as the sixth-best value play at running back on both platforms, this putrid Detroit Lions defense is a target once again through the likes of Rhamondre Stevenson. In general, this is a matchup that makes both New England backs tempting options, as the Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (31.7). Allowing the most yards per carry (5.6) and rushing touchdowns (eight) to the position displays the struggles this unit is experiencing. Game script and snap share (51.7%) are two factors that make Stevenson Stokastic’s preferred play this week. However, Damien Harris comes into this matchup with six more red zone touches, 10 more carries overall and only five fewer targets. Both make tremendous plays this week and offer flexibility in roster creation with their middling salaries, despite arguably the best matchup on the slate.

Wide Receiver: Chris Godwin – $5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Stacking Chris Godwin with Brady is a great way to begin your roster construction. While Godwin comes in as the second-most valuable receiver on FanDuel, the PPR scoring format and bargain salary make him an elite value on DraftKings. As mentioned above, this Falcons defense struggles mightily against the pass, allowing an opposing completion percentage of 69.13%, ranking 29th in the league. Brady is known for his accuracy and will exploit this vulnerability early and often. Godwin came into the season off ACL and MCL tears suffered in Week 15 of 2021. After beating the timetable for his return, he suffered from hamstring issues until he returned to his normal usage last week. Running a season-high in routes (41) helped him secure seven receptions for 59 yards on 83.1% snap share. He’s in line for a massive Sunday afternoon and should be a staple in your lineups as the best leverage play available.

Tight End: Tyler Higbee – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Last year’s projected breakout tight end is finally reaping the benefits of his improved quarterback situation. After turning 85 targets into a disappointing 560 receiving yards and five touchdowns last season, Tyler Higbee is producing at a much higher and more consistent rate this season. Repeat from the previous season, his opportunity ranks in elite status at the tight end position. Ranking first in targets (38), second in target share (25.5%) and snap share (93.6%), and fifth in target rate (29.7%), routes run (128) and route participation (85.3%) – there’s nearly zero reasons for Higbee to be priced as he is. Fast forward to this season where his production is matching his opportunity and this is a fantasy match made in heaven. This matchup with Dallas is far from appealing, as the Cowboys have allowed less than eight fantasy points per game to the position, but the usage projects him to be the second-highest boom play on the board.

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