NFL DFS Week 6 First Look: Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen Stack a Starting Point for NFL DFS Lineups (October 16)

Sunday’s main NFL slate features 11 games. This NFL DFS first look article takes an early look at the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel and breaks down some of the best options at each major position.

NFL First Look: Week 6 NFL DFS Picks

As always, be sure to be watching all of the Stokastic NFL shows on the Stokastic YouTube Channel all the way up to lock to get the breaking news and best Week 6 NFL DFS picks.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, BUF vs. KC ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)

Allen has been incredible this season. As the quarterback for this Buffalo Bills offense that throws at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (65.1%), Allen ranks first in passing touchdowns (8) and third in yards per attempt (8.3). As a rusher, he ranks sixth in carries per game (7) and second in red zone carries among quarterbacks (11). Allen has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in four of five starts and now finds himself competing in an anticipated shootout vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. This contest presents the highest total on the slate (54 points), and the Bills implied team total is the largest on the board (28.25 points). In the last 10 instances Allen has competed in a game total of at least 50 points, he is amassing 30.2 DraftKings points per game. Included in this average is three matchups vs. the Chiefs, in which Allen destroyed them for an eye-popping 36 DraftKings points per game.

Geno Smith, SEA vs. ARI ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

Smith has resurrected his career with the Seattle Seahawks. Tied with Allen, Smith ranks third in yards per attempt (8.3) to go along with an outstanding 9-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The veteran is the highest-graded quarterback by PFF this season but is only the 10th and ninth-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Facing an Arizona Cardinals defense allowing the ninth-most yards per pass attempt (7.1) and is the worst graded unit by PFF, Smith should continue to impress this Sunday. This tilt’s total is the second highest on the slate (51 points) and the Seahawks’ implied team total is set at a healthy 24.75 points. Smith brings a ceiling near 30 fantasy points in this perfect spot and is an elite value at his current price tags.

Latest NFL DFS Content

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. CIN ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)

Kamara (ribs) made his return last week and wasn’t limited in any way, logging a season-high 23 carries, including three red zone attempts, while playing 73% of the snaps for the New Orleans Saints. Overall, in the three games Kamara has been active this season, the running back has handled 16 carries per game — which is 72% of the Saints’ running back carries in those contests — and has run a route on 56% of his team’s dropbacks while gaining a target on an elite 28% of those routes. This tremendous workload is among the best in the league and is by no means reflected in Kamara’s current price points, especially at only $6,700 on DraftKings, where players are rewarded a full point per reception. This home matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals sports the seventh-highest total on the board (43.5 points), and in home games that carry a total of at least 40 points over the past three seasons, Kamara is generating 25.0 DraftKings points per game.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. CLE ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

In the wake of Damien Harris (hamstring) exiting early Sunday, Stevenson saw a massive role, turning 25 carries in to 161 rushing yards — each a career high — while playing 71.4% of the snaps. Though it’s early in the week, it seems likely Harris will be inactive this Sunday. Following the injury, the New England Patriots were quick to rule him out for the remainder of Week 5, and hamstring injuries rarely take less than a week to heal. This would leave Stevenson in an immense role as the Patriots’ top back and make him a very tough fade for all formats. Including this past Sunday, Stevenson is averaging 19 carries and eight red zone attempts in three games without Harris, resulting in 19.3 DraftKings points per game.

Update: Per Tom Pelissero of NFL Network, Harris is likely to miss multiple game with the hamstring injury, solidifying Stevenson as one of the best values on the slate.

Breece Hall, NYJ vs. GB ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

Fresh off back-to-back wins with Hall playing a huge role, the New York Jets should continue to feed the rookie Sunday. In these past two victories, Hall has seen 17.5 carries per game, including nine red zone rushes, while playing 58% of the snaps. He has also been extremely active in the receiving department, running a route on 58% of his team’s dropbacks and obtaining a target on 22% of those routes. After nearly reaching 200 scrimmage yards against the Miami Dolphins, Hall faces a Green Bay Packers defense that been a huge disappointment this season, rating as the ninth worst graded unit by PFF. Specifically, they have been susceptible against the rush, rating as the third worst graded run defense by PFF. This game’s total ranks third on the slate (46 points), and Hall is one of the best running back values available in this spot.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs, BUF vs. KC ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)

Stacking Allen and Diggs is a must this week. By a sizable gap, he leads the Bills in target share this season (25.9%), including 11 red zone targets, which ranks second in the league among skill players. Furthermore, Diggs has racked up a team-high seven targets greater than 20 yards. As previously mentioned, this matchup with the Chiefs boasts the highest total on the slate (54 points), and in totals of at least 50 points since he joined the Bills three years ago, Diggs has supplied 21.2 DraftKings points per game.

Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. ARI ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Lockett has shown great chemistry with Smith, being targeted on 25% of his routes, including eight targets over 20 yards, while running a route on 92% of Smith’s dropbacks. As noted above, this Cardinals defense Lockett is going against is the worst graded unit by PFF, and this matchup’s total is the second highest on the slate (51 points). Lockett owns a career average of 18.0 DraftKings points per game in totals of 50 points or greater. and while he is a terrific target on both sites, Lockett is a near must play on DraftKings, where his salary hasn’t moved since his season-high 30.4 DraftKings points outburst last week.

Rondale Moore, ARI vs. SEA ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Moore (knee) has seen a full-time role since returning two weeks ago, running a route on 93% of his team’s dropbacks and garnering a target on 18% of those routes. Of his 13 targets, two of have come in the red zone and two have been north of 20 yards, which is very encouraging, after Moore only saw four 20+ yard targets in 14 games last season. On top of this game’s total being the second highest on the slate (51 points), the Seahawks are surrendering the most yards per pass attempt in the league by a wide margin (8.6) and the Cardinals’ implied team total is the second largest on the board (26.75 points). In this dream spot, Moore should have zero issues beating his low price tags.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz, ARI vs. SEA ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

Ertz is another appealing value from the Cardinals in this projected shootout vs. the Seahawks. This season, Ertz ranks fifth among tight ends in target share (19.8%), while running a route on 85% of his team’s dropbacks. With DeAndre Hopkins serving a six-game suspension to start the season, Ertz has been Kyler Murray’s primary target in scoring territory, seeing 11 red zone targets, which is tied for second most in the NFL regardless of position. In addition to allowing the most yards per pass attempt (8.6), this Seahawks defense has given up the second-most yards (404) and touchdowns to tight ends (4). Ertz is vastly underpriced for his upside in this matchup and is an excellent bring back option for Seahawks stacks.

David Njoku, CLE vs. NE ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

After signing a four-year $56.75 million deal this summer, Njoku has taken on a bigger role this season with the Cleveland Browns, running a route on 81% of his team’s dropbacks and seeing a target on 20% of those routes. Included in this sample is seven red zone targets, which tied for the most on the Browns and ranks fourth among tight ends this season. Going against a New England Patriots defense that has yielded the most touchdowns to tight ends (5), Njoku is a decent bet to find paydirt and is standing out as one of the best values at his position.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!