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Top Week 7 NFL PrizePicks for the Sunday Main Slate: Tua Tagovailoa & Calvin Ridley

Geoff Ulrich



NFL best bets, betting odds, picks and predictions for Week 16 NFL MNF game Dolphins vs. Saints using expert betting tools & simulations

PrizePicks is different than making traditional NFL DFS picks. Rather, users can bundle over or under selections on a player’s fantasy points into parlays for big payouts. Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing touchdowns) and prop tools, I will be targeting the players that stick out as the best options every week and give an idea as to why they might be good targets. To play, pair at least two plays together (up to five), pick over or under the given projected fantasy score or specific stats for players. Below are some of the top single-stat DFS totals to target on PrizePicks for NFL Week 7.

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PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Picks: Week 7 Sunday Slate

QB Tua Tagovailoa Over 240.5 Yards Passing

The Dolphins defense has imploded this season, and it has led to a much less balanced offensive attack. Through six weeks the Dolphins have thrown an average of 39.5 times per game, which is seventh highest in the league. It is not ideal for the Dolphins’ record given they do not have an elite talent at quarterback, but it is ideal for Tua Tagovailoa’s yardage stats, which should continue to out-perform in this environment. Tagovailoa enters this game against Atlanta off a 329-yard performance against Jacksonville in which he attempted 47 passes. He is still averaging just 6.41 yards per attempt and could get even more help in the receiving department this week, with DeVante Parker questionable.

The Falcons rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per attempt against and average just 1.8 sacks per game, sixth worst in the league. Considering Miami’s defense is also still banged up it should be another wide-open passing game between these two middling teams. Tagovailoa is one of the best pure value picks in the Awesemo projected stats, as he is predicted for well over 260 yards passing in this spot. It all adds up to making him the best over play at quarterback this week.

Bonus: Matthew Stafford Over 285.5 Yards Passing

There are so many great matchups on the board for elite quarterbacks couple of different names could be over plays. Matthew Stafford’s 285.5 over/under stands out as the best one to attack, though. He is leading the league in yards per attempt and faces a Lions defense that allows 9.3 yards per attempt on defense, the worst mark in the league. Stafford’s projections are spiking this week as he is projected for over 300 yards in this spot. The threat of a blowout likely has kept this prop low, but it is still worth attacking as an over play.

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RB Josh Jacobs Over 50.5 Yards Rushing

The Raiders are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season, so it is risky taking the over on any of their players. Volume trumps everything in the NFL, however, and there has been a clear shift in usage of late from the Raiders. Josh Jacobs enters this game having taken at least 15 carries in each of his last two games. He has also played on over 60% of the snaps in three straight games, and Kenyan Drake’s snap count has dwindled to around 20%. The opponent is also a big deal. Opponents against the Eagles are averaging 33 carries per game, which is the highest in the league by a wide margin.

Philadelphia’s pace of play — second fastest in the league — and their general lack of talent should push the Jacobs to season-high rushing totals. While he has not been very efficient this year (averaging just 3.2 yards per carry), the Raiders are also 3-point homes favorites in this spot, and Jacobs has a strong projection of 64.39 rush yards this week, which would put him over this total easily. The opponent could not be better especially for a back who is building in his usage every week.

Bonus: Leonard Fournette Under 64.5 Yards Rushing

The Buccaneers skill players are one of the best fade spots in fantasy this week for the simple fact they are playing the Bears, who have been absolute death for fantasy. Chicago is playing slowly (sixth-slowest pace in the league) and allowing just 4.1 yards per carry. Leonard Fournette is still just playing around 60% of the snaps and is in a pass-first offense where he has received 12 or fewer carries four times this year. He is projected as a decent under on Awesemo as well.

WR Calvin Ridley Over 70.5 Yards Receiving

After missing a week for a personal matter, Calvin Ridley is set to return to the lineup for the Falcons in what is suddenly looking like a good fantasy matchup. The Dolphins secondary and defense in general has been banged up all year, and there is no guarantee either of their starting cornerbacks will be back or 100% healthy for this game. The Dolphins have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt in 2021 (10th worst in the league) and are coming off a game where they allowed 319 yards and 7.8 yards per attempt to the Jaguars.

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Ridley has been one of the bigger fantasy disappointments of the season, as many projected he would challenge for the lead in several receiving categories. Before Week 5 he had still seen some elite usage, with 34 targets over his last three games. Despite a career-low 9.4 yards per reception, this year there is still time to turn this ship around, and the projections say this low over/under is likely too big a reaction to his slow start. He is projected for a nice bounce back with over 85 yards receiving this week, making him an elite over target on PrizePicks.

Bonus: D.J. Moore Over 75.5 Yards Receiving

Moore averaged 14.3 yards per catch last week against the Vikings but was only able to convert five of his 13 targets into catches. The increased downfield catches were nice, but there is some worry about his long-term form, with quarterback Sam Darnold starting to show his warts. Luckily, the Panthers play the Giants this week, who are fourth-to-last in sacks per game (1.7 per) and ninth-to-last in yards per attempt against. Moore’s not been great the last two weeks, but the projections say to stay on the over in a fantastic matchup.

TE Mark Andrews Under 68.5 Yards Receiving

Mark Andrews has certainly developed into one of the best receiving tight ends in the league this year, but it feels like the numbers are catching up to him. He has averaged 78 yards per game, but a lot of that yardage came in two games where he busted past the 100-yard barrier. In four other games Andrews has been under 68.5 yards, and he projects for under 60 yards in this spot against the Bengals as well.

Cincinnati has come a long way from last year, and they enter this game allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, the fourth-best mark in the league. The Bengals also play at the slowest pace in the league, and teams playing them are only averaging 29 pass attempts per game. Now that his over/under has spiked, Andrews sets up as a nice under play for at least one week.

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Bonus: Darren Waller Over 59.5 Yards Receiving

Darren Waller’s over/under has slipped below 60 yards. Waller has not cracked 65 yards receiving since Week 1, but he is also still averaging nine targets a game and playing an Eagles team that has allowed the third-most receptions to his position. Waller is projected for a bounce-back game and over 70 yards in this spot, making this an over lean.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! Take a look at our NFL depth chart list, NFL line-ups and NFL inactives. View our DraftKings NFL ownership rankings and our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL tools for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and DFS NFL stacking. We also have NFL DFS single-game projections and single-game ownership projections.

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