Week 5 brings us plenty of top teams projecting well for DFS. As of now in the Stokastic Top Stack Tool, there’s six teams projecting with a 7% chance or better of being the top stack of the week. From a matchup standpoint, there’s also three teams right now projecting as a TD or better favorite with Minnesota (-7.5), Tampa Bay (-10) and Buffalo (-14) leading in that regard. The Bills have the highest implied team total at 30.0, but Tampa Bay and Philadelphia also project with over 27.0 point implied team totals. Injury-wise, Tyreek Hill and Amon Ra St. Brown set up as two of the biggest names to watch Sunday morning.
Last week, we discussed Seattle in this article who popped up for us as a great low-owned stack in the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool. They had a strong top stack projection and lower ownership across most of their best skill players.
Just like last week we’ll be using the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to see if there’s any place where we can gain leverage on the field, either through ownership or by rostering the other side of the game on a popular stack. The way you construct your NFL DFS stacks can be of vital importance to a successful GPP lineup since certain receivers will have different usage, upside and ownership potential each week. If you haven’t checked out the Top Stacks Tool yet you should and we’ll also use it to help us breakdown some of the top opportunities for Week 5 below.
Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 5 on DraftKings & FanDuel
Top Stack: Buffalo Bills
No shock, it’s the Buffalo Bills at the top of the Stokastic Top Stack tool again this week. This week though, the Bills aren’t just number one by a tiny margin. Buffalo’s 19.1% top stack projection has them in first place by a whopping 9% and they also carry the best value score by a wide margin as well. The 14 point spread and 30.00 point team total obvious work in their favor, but so does the fact they’re taking on a classic funnel to the pass defense in the Steelers. Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points against to opposing WRs this season and have a rookie starting at QB which could mean the Bills average starting position on offense is even better than usual this week.
Despite the massive projection, the ownership levels on the Bills top skill players shouldn’t have us worried either. There’s plenty of other popular targets on this slate which is keeping the ownership on Stefon Diggs somewhat suppressed. Diggs has posted two slow games in a row for fantasy purposes but gets an entirely different matchup this week, at home, against a weak opponent. He’s still projecting with a 24% team target share through four weeks and, given some of the injury issues in their receiving corps, Diggs likely gets a bump in target share here.
This could also be a spot where we get the true Gabe Davis breakout game. This week, Davis was removed from the injury report for the first time since Week 1. For an explosive downfield player, his ankle injury likely wasn’t helping him earn targets and he’ll also have less competition this week for targets with Jamison Crowder out and Isaiah McKenzie questionable and potentially limited.
The Bills are at home, playing a weak pass defense and could be in a spot to drop a ton of points. With ownership on their top receivers suppressed, this isn’t the time to pivot off the top play.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 19.1%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 12.3%
Top Low-Owned Stack: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers and Browns game is giving me the same kind of vibes that Seattle and Detroit gave me last week. Both defenses have been disappointing in many regards, with the Chargers rush defense allowing over 5.0 yards per carry thus far and projecting as a bottom three defense in stopping the run to this point. Nick Chubb should have a banner day here and with an ownership projection under 6% right now on Stokastic, he sets up as a perfect comeback play for any Chargers passing stack.
The Chargers defense could not hold the 21 point lead at all from last week, forcing Justin Herbert to throw the ball 39 times (for 340 yards) despite being ahead for most of the afternoon. It’s a great scenario for fantasy purposes as the Chargers fantasy players are becoming less game flow dependent given that their defense is basically incapable of shutting down the other sides offense. Cleveland’s own defensive issues have been somewhat masked by a strong running game and the fact they’ve played weaker opponents. Their secondary completely melted down in Week 2 against the Jets and this week Mike Williams will have a significant height advantage over the 5’10 Denzel Ward whenever they are matched up.
Herbert-Williams will be a must play if targeting this game – given the fact Keenan Allen is out this week again – and it’s encouraging to note that neither player is getting much heat for DFS purposes, with Williams projecting for sub-5% ownership. Austin Ekeler makes sense if you’re looking to triple stack, but for value purposes I’d also give Gerald Everett a look. Everett has shown real upside with Herbert as his QB, averaging 13.2 yards per reception this year and he’s essentially tied with Ekeler for second in team target share with both men hovering around 16-17%. The Chargers have low sentiment, a good matchup and lots of healthy targets to choose from for stacking. It’s a good spot to deploy an under owned Herbert and his crew.
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Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 7.1%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 3.5%
Tournament Leverage Stack: Los Angeles Rams
As of writing, the Dallas Cowboys are projected as the most popular play at DST this week in the Stokastic ownership projections. Using the Rams offense this week means that if they do push for a top 5% kind of output then you’ll also be busting a lot of lineups who chose to ride with the cheap Dallas chalk.
Dallas’ defense has admittedly been great this season but are still far from perfect. They’ve allowed 5.0 yards per carry and also faced off against two weaker teams over the past two weeks. This week is a completely different test as they’ll be on the road against Matthew Stafford who has the lowest quarterback ownership projection of any QB whose team is ranked in the top 10 in the Stokastic Stacking Tool this week.
The Rams have appeal here not just from an ownership perspective too. They’re currently ranked with the third best projection in the top stack tool with nearly a 10% chance to end the day as top stack. The Rams are also easy to stack as Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee have accounted for 61% of the team’s targets to date. The one thing that does make the Rams a tough target is to know where to go for a contrarian build. Given Allen Robinson’s complete inability to gain targets, Ben Skowronek may actually be the better option if you’re looking for a more original third man option to pair with Kupp and Stafford. He’s playing on over 85% of the snaps and finally was able to gain his first red zone target last week. Don’t be shocked if he emerges as the true WR2 in this offense soon.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 9.8%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 2.5%
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