It is a solid 10-game slate in the NHL this Tuesday night, and though a lot of big names have the night off, Nathan MacKinnon, Timo Meier and Rasmus Dahlin are still on the docket. There are a number of solid matchups from which to make NHL DFS picks. As always, Stokastic subscribers are encouraged to check the members-only Discord for lineup/injury news, especially when warmups start.
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Sidney Crosby (PIT vs. VAN): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $8,600
It is his 18th season in the NHL, but Sidney Crosby just keeps producing as a top star. His 20 goals in 39 contests put him on pace for over 40 goals, which would be the first time in six seasons he’s done that. He could also push 100 points for just the second time in nine years, as he’s pacing for 99. His last 10 games have seen him below 19 minutes just once, never below 18 minutes, and averaging nearly 21 minutes a night. The consistent ice time is always helpful for top-end DFS options.
Vancouver visiting Pittsburgh tonight brings a Canucks penalty kill that has struggled all season long. They are last by penalty kill percentage, killing just 68% of the power plays they give, and they have the fourth-most goals against per minute when down a man since Dec. 1. Whether the entire season, or just more recently, Vancouver’s penalty kill has been completely inept. Rickard Rakell joining Pittsburgh’s top power play unit has given them life, as that Penguins power play is generating 19% more shots and 57% more goals with Rakell on the ice. That helps the entire quintet, Crosby included. With his line correlation with Jake Guentzel, using at least the two of them in a Pittsburgh stack is a path for DFS tournaments.
Barrett Hayton (ARI vs. SJ): DraftKings – $2,700 | FanDuel – $3,800
Arizona’s fifth overall draft pick from 2018, Barrett Hayton, has had a tough time producing in one of the league’s worst offensive environments, with just 43 points in 143 career games. However, his situation on this year’s Coyotes roster has improved markedly of late. He joined the top power play unit recently and that has him skating north of 17 minutes a game over his last 10 outings, compared to 14:42 in his first 29 games of the campaign. His latest game also saw him on the top line alongside Clayton Keller, so he’s getting the best possible slotting on this roster.
The Coyotes are hosting the Sharks tonight and the visiting team is nothing special defensively. At five-on-five, they rank in the middle of the league by expected goals against since Dec. 1 with poor goaltending dragging their goals against rates to the bottom of the league. The net-minders are also playing poorly on the penalty kill with the 29th-ranked penalty kill save percentage in that span.
With the new slotting, Hayton has perfect correlation at all offensive strengths with his line mates. For that reason, the top Arizona line is a target for tournament stacking, though Hayton’s exceptionally cheap price means he can be used as a cap-saving one-off.
Winger
Nikita Kucherov (TB vs. CBJ): DraftKings – $8,400 | FanDuel – $9,800
Like Crosby above, it can get boring when superstars just keep being elite producers, but that’s what Nikita Kucherov is doing. He is pacing for nearly 120 points this season as he continues to build his Hall of Fame resume. The scary part is his line has been improving as the season’s gone on, producing 3.9 expected goals and six actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five over the last five weeks. They’ve been great all year, but the last month or so has gone to another level.
Kucherov and the Lightning hosting the Blue Jackets presents a tremendous matchup for Tampa. Columbus is 26th by expected goals against at five-on-five since Dec. 1 and ranks 28th on the season as a whole. Its penalty kill hasn’t been awful like some other basement teams like Arizona or Chicago, but it hasn’t been good either, ranking in the middle of the league by shot and goal metrics.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Kucherov second among all wingers on DraftKings and first on FanDuel for this slate. He is expensive, but he’s worth it in these types of matchups can be used by himself or in a line stack for tournaments.
Latest NHL DFS Content
- DraftKings Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet: The Best NHL DFS Stacks Today | Connor McDavid and the Oilers (April 28)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Time to Stack the Maple Leafs (April 27)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Nathan MacKinnon Smoking the Field (April 26)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Money Making Matthew Tkachuk (April 23)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Jumping On Jack Eichel (April 22)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Max Pacioretty (CAR vs. NJD): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $8,500
It has been a good return for Max Pacioretty, who had missed the entire season with an Achilles surgery but returned last week and posted six shots in his first game with two goals in his second. He has been out so long it’s easy to forget that over his prior three seasons, he averaged 39 goals, 41 assists, and 326 shots every 82 games. It is also important to point out that he did not average 18 minutes of ice time per game in any of those seasons. In other words, he’s had top-tier production without top-tier ice time.
There are no real samples to work with here given Pacioretty’s lack of game action, but the matchup is still a good starting point. When New Jersey has their top forwards off the ice – including Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier – the team’s expected goals against rate is 2.6 per 60 minutes at five-on-five. That is about league average, which is fine for third and fourth lines, but presents a reasonable matchup for Pacioretty and his line mates.
If Pacioretty can keep producing as he has in recent seasons, and early this season, his price in the DFS game will only rise, particularly on DraftKings. He shot volume means he can be used as a one-off, but a line stack is just fine.
Andrew Mangiapane (CGY at STL): DraftKings – $3500 | FanDuel – $4,800
It has been a tough season for Andrew Mangiapane but a lot of it is related to luck: he is shooting 9.9% at five-on-five after four seasons of being anywhere between 13-20%. He could have double his current goal total with a normal shooting percentage and that kind of positive regression could lead to him having a big second half of the season. He has also seen his ice time rise of late as the team has mixed up their lines and he’s found good chemistry with Mikael Backlund.
Going into St. Louis presents a very good matchup for Calgary and Mangiapane. The Blues are missing two, if not three, regular defensemen and are also without top center Ryan O’Reilly and scoring winger Vladimir Tarasenko. The Blues are a bottom-10 team by expected goals against and actual goals against at five-on-five this season and all these injuries will not help matters.
Stokastic’s projections rank Mangiapane second among all wingers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and third for wingers under $5,000 on FanDuel. He can be used as a one-off to save a bit of salary in tournaments tonight. There is also merit to using him in some sort of duo stack as well given the positive matchup.
Defense
Erik Karlsson (SJ at ARI): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $8,300
Paying up so much for a defenseman on the road can be a tough ask but this is a fantastic matchup for Erik Karlsson. Since Dec. 1, Arizona is a fringe bottom-10 team by expected goals and actual goals against at five-on-five. On the penalty kill, things look worse as the Coyotes give up the second-most shots and most goals per minute when down a man in that stretch of contests. San Jose’s top power play unit, which is run by Karlsson, is scoring 11.3 goals per 60 minutes this season. For reference, the top Minnesota power play unit is sitting with 11.4 goals per 60.
Tonight, Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Karlsson second among all blue liners on both DraftKings and FanDuel, trailing only Cale Makar. However, NHL DFS ownership projections have him at 6.5%, less than one-third of Makar’s ownership. That, along with the matchup, makes Karlsson a pay-up option on the back end for tournaments.
Colton Parayko (STL vs. CGY): DraftKings – $4,500 | FanDuel – $5,000
The injuries to the St. Louis blue line have meant more minutes for Colton Parayko, who has now played at least 22 minutes in 11 straight outings, averaging over 25 minutes a game in that span. In those games, he has seven points, 26 shots, and 20 blocks. He has two DraftKings shot bonuses and two DraftKings block bonuses mixed in there as well. There is a lot more pressure on him to do more than just play solid defense and he has responded by upping his peripherals along with the additional ice time.
Between all blue liners priced under $5,000 on DraftKings for this slate, Parayko leads Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections with 9.2 median fantasy points. On FanDuel, he is second among all defenders priced $5,000 or less. It is a tough matchup with Calgary in town but, at the least, it should mean good news for his blocked shot potential. He is one of the mid-priced defense targets for tournaments on this slate.
Goalie
Ilya Sorokin (NYI vs. DAL): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $8,100
Per the Stokastic GoalieStats section, Ilya Sorokin is fourth in projected saves for this slate, landing just over 29 stops. He is the only goalie that is projected for both more than 29 saves and fewer than three goals against. The advanced stats website Evolving Hockey has Sorokin leading all goalies this season in goals saved above expected, preventing nearly a goal per game (0.87, to be exact). Despite all that, he is priced outside the top-10 goalie options on DraftKings tonight. His talent, and the value presented with his price, makes him an option for all DFS players on DraftKings. The value is less pronounced on FanDuel but he’s still perfectly fine to play on that site.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
BUF1: Thompson-Tuch-Skinner
It is a back-to-back situation for Buffalo, but it’s the same situation for Seattle, and the Kraken are on the road. The Sabres lost last night 4-0, the first time they were shutout this season. This line outplayed the opposition, but they can’t score four goals every game.
Regardless, it is a very good matchup for one of the league’s top lines as Seattle has bottom-10 shots and goals against metrics on the penalty kill since Dec. 1, with middle-of-the-league numbers by the same metrics at five-on-five. The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has Buffalo as the number-1 even-strength line by top-2 stack probability but a large slate and high cost is giving them a low single-digit ownership rate. That kind of leverage is great for tournaments and makes the Sabres a top high-priced stack on the evening.
FLA1: Barkov-Reinhart-Lundell
Florida has mixed up their lines, leading to this current iteration of their top line. There is no real sample to work with here, but Aleksander Barkov has been able to play top minutes with almost anyone on his line and Sam Reinhart, now on his wing, skates with him on the power play. That is important for this matchup as Colorado’s penalty kill has been middle-of-the-road by shots allowed over their last 18 games, dating to Dec. 1. The goals against have been much worse, bringing them to 25th in the league.
Referring back to the Top Stacks Tool, this Florida trio has the second-highest top-2 stack probability of any line priced under $16,000 on DraftKings tonight, trailing only the Colorado second line on the other side of this matchup. This Panthers line coming in at a fraction of the ownership (2.4%) as that Avalanche trio (11.5%) and that kind of leverage is what makes them a mid-priced option for this slate. Florida has similar expected ownership on FanDuel, as well.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
