Sports are back in full swing, with an almost overwhelming amount of options to bet on. Here are a couple of my strongest spots on the board for Monday’s betting card along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some MLB betting picks and NBA betting picks for tonight’s action.
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MLB Betting Picks
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-148)
So the OddsShopper hasn’t incorporated first-five bets yet, but it’s on the way. If you use OddsShopper for the full-game under, FanDuel offers the best price at under eight (-112). I think getting 4.5 here is a gift, even though we have to pay the juice for a bit more cushion.
I felt fortunate to lock this bet in myself this morning at under four (-110) and expected the majority of books to be offering 3.5. While FanDuel might have the best price on the full game, first five under 4.5 (-182) is very expensive, and it’s odd that at that steep of a price it wouldn’t have moved to four.
DraftKings is offering the -148 price on under 4.5, and I think anything better than -150 is worth getting the extra half run. I’m completely cool with an under four (-110) play, obviously, since I’m playing it myself.
Jacob deGrom and Mike Soroka met on Opening Day, a 1-0 victory for the Mets that was scoreless until the seventh inning. We all know about deGrom’s greatness, as he went five innings, allowing just one hit and one walk, while punching out eight batters. Soroka might not have the same familiarity, but was spectacular against the Mets. Soroka lasted through six innings, allowing four hits and no walks. Maybe we won’t see quite the level of perfection we did last time around, but there’s some wiggle room here for regression.
NBA Betting Picks
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz: Under 217 (-109)
This is a total I’ve had circled since Saturday night, and I think it would even be a comfortable bet for me if it got bet down to 215. You can bet this one anywhere you want, as every book on the OddsShopper tool is offering a -109 or -110 on under 217. But if you want to save yourself the penny, DraftKings, Sugar House and Bet Rivers are the three offering -109.
So why does the spot jump out? These are two defensive teams that are a combined 4-0 to the under in their bubble games thus far — not to mention the Lakers have hit five unders in a row and eight of their last 10 if we go back before the league shut down. The Lakers stayed under the total by 16 against the Clippers and 26 against the Raptors in their two bubble games. Meanwhile, the Jazz stayed under by 19 against the Pelicans and 14.5 against the Thunder. And the Thunder total wasn’t even as close as it sounds, as Utah had 62 points entering the fourth quarter and ended up with 94 in a blowout loss. To top things off, these teams met twice back in the regular season, hitting 217 once, but 181 in the first meeting. The Jazz are averaging exactly 100 points per game in the bubble, while the Lakers are down at just 97.5. The Lakers’ two totals have hit 204 and 199, and Utah’s have hit 210 and 204. The number’s simply too high and likely inflated due to a 6-0 Friday for overs in the bubble.
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