The NBA is officially back, and through four days of games in Orlando, the big story from a betting perspective has been these steamed up totals. Life in the bubble is creating an AAU tournament style of play, putting some serious points on the board. Let’s recap the action from Thursday through Sunday in the NBA, and hopefully point out some key NBA bet trends to keep an eye on this week, and hopefully make some money for our future NBA picks.
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Thursday NBA Bets
Both underdogs cover, with the Jazz (+2.5) defeating the Pelicans outright, and the Clippers (+4) losing to the Lakers by two points. With all the hype overs are getting, let’s not forget there have been some huge under hits. UTA/NOP closed at 229, but finished under by 19 points. LAC/LAL got bet up to 220, and stayed under by 16 points.
Favorites outright: 1-1
Favorites ATS: 0-2
Overs: 0-2
Friday NBA Bets
This was the day that sparked this over-frenzy in the bubble, not just because the over went a perfect 6-0, but because of how insane the final scores wound up. The closest total cashed the over by 10 points, and two overs hit by more than 50! Here’s a quick look at where everything finished:
— ORL/BKN go over 210.5 by 35.5.
— MEM/POR go over 225 by 50. This one went to OT, but the game went over by 23 in regulation.
— PHX/WAS go over 224.5 by a modest 12.5.
— BOS/MIL go over 221 by a modest 10.
— SAC/SAS go over 223.5 by 25.5.
— HOU/DAL go over a massive 232.5 by an insane 69.5 margin. This was another OT game, but we were still over by 45.5 after regulation.
The Spurs (+3.5) were the only dog to cover, beating the Kings by nine outright.
Favorites outright: 5-1
Favorites ATS: 5-1
Overs: 6-0
Saturday NBA Bets
By now, overs are taking massive steam, essentially betting up any game, regardless of the teams involved. This is when I think we can start to find an edge on some unders, until bettors lay off the overs.
Defensive teams like the UTA/OKC and LAL/TOR matchups led to easy unders by 14.5 and 26 points, and the Jazz one wasn’t even that close — they had 62 points entering the fourth quarter, and scored 32 in the final frame of a blowout. The Clippers also bounced-back from a loss to the Lakers, cashing their second under in as many bubble games — this time in a blowout over the Pelicans.
Favorites outright: 3-2
Favorites ATS: 3-2
Overs: 2-3
Sunday NBA Bets
Overs continue to get slammed, with the lowest on the board at 228 (SAC/ORL), which does go over by 20 points. But the unders continued to turn a profit. We saw the biggest number on the board yet between the Rockets and Bucks (244), which wound up staying under by eight points. That tells us the totals are just getting bet too high — this one was actually bet all the way up to 244 after sitting at 241.5.
Favorites outright: 3-3
Favorites ATS: 2-3-1 (BOS blew a 20-plus point lead to push -4 vs. POR — Tatum misses FT for the cover).
Overs: 2-4 — SAS/MEM stays under by 22, but everything else is pretty close. Worth noting SAS also wins its second game outright as a 3/3.5-point dog.
It was an eventful weekend, but what can we take away from it to try and make some money on this week? Here are some trends I’ve got my eye on.
— The Lakers and Jazz are both 2-0 to the under in the bubble, and matchup on Monday night in the last game. More on this in my other article today.
— The Magic are 2-0, winning by an average of 13 points. They’re also 2-0 to the over in the bubble, going over by 27.75 points per game. Orlando is averaging 130 points per game in the bubble. The Magic face the Pacers on the second night of a back-to-back on Tuesday. This could be a hot team to tail.
— The Kings are 0-2 straight up and ATS, failing to cover by over 13 points per game. They’re also 2-0 to the over, going over by 22.75 points per. This could be a cold tea to fade.
— The Mavericks entered the bubble an NBA-best 44-23 1H ATS, including 27-6 1H ATS away from home. Dallas is 2-0 1H ATS in the bubble, despite collapsing and losing both games to the Rockets and Suns.
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